Collectable Valuation Project

[EllisDee37]

I'd like to put together a value chart for collectables for the purposes of trading. There are two aspects to this: Supply and Demand.

Supply
A measure of how long it takes to farm up any given collectable, using a measure of "seconds per pull." For example, you might be able to farm up 1 Fragrant Drowshood in 2:05, but a Glass Phial takes 4:05, thus making Glass Phials more valuable if they both have the same demand. The supply values will be objective, based on farming runs with an optimal collectable farmer.

Demand
A measure of what shards each collectable is used for and how desirable those shards are. This is more subjective, so I'd like some feedback on my classifications. It'll take me a week or three to gather the supply side numbers; I figure we can use that time to fine tune the demand side numbers.

[EllisDee37]

Here's the final value table, both by value and by collectable.

Essences	Collectable		Essences	Collectable
1575	Silver Flame Hymnal		425	Academic Treatise
1550	Ornate Charm		125	Amber Vial
1475	Scholarly Notes		10	Amulet of the Lost Empire
1475	Silver Bowl		20	Amulet of the Six
1125	Cryptmoss Worm		200	Ancient Text
1050	House-Sealed Letter		775	Archaic Logbook
875	Ivory Scorpion Icon		5	Blade of the Dark Six
875	Sparkling Dust		125	Blessed Candle
850	Charred Soarwood		400	Blister Beetle
850	Wavecrasher Cargo Manifest		225	Bloodfeast Fungus
775	Archaic Logbook		200	Brass Censer
750	Glass Phial		150	Bruised Spore Pod
750	Polished Ore		200	Caravan Logbook
725	Cryptmoss		100	Ceramic Bowl
650	Fragrant Drowshood		850	Charred Soarwood
575	Vial of Pure Water		125	Chipped Bone Talisman
550	Fractured Femur		50	Crypt Moth
525	Moonstone		200	Cryptic Message
500	Khyber Prayer Pamphlet		725	Cryptmoss
500	Stone Fetish		1125	Cryptmoss Worm
500	Warehouse Ledger		250	Cryptmoss Worm Larva
425	Academic Treatise		125	Deadly Feverblanch
425	Pouch of Bone Fragments		25	Duskbrood Trumpeter
400	Blister Beetle		150	Flint Knife
350	Romantic Sonnet		550	Fractured Femur
325	Headsman Beetle		650	Fragrant Drowshood
325	Lodestone		5	Funerary Token
325	Singed Soarwood		750	Glass Phial
300	Research Diary		200	Glittering Dust
300	Skull Fragment		150	Glowmoss Spore
275	Intact Spore Pod		150	Hairy Trumpet Mushroom
250	Cryptmoss Worm Larva		325	Headsman Beetle
225	Bloodfeast Fungus		1050	House-Sealed Letter
225	Runic Parchment		275	Intact Spore Pod
200	Ancient Text		875	Ivory Scorpion Icon
200	Brass Censer		500	Khyber Prayer Pamphlet
200	Caravan Logbook		325	Lodestone
200	Cryptic Message		15	Mark of the Keeper
200	Glittering Dust		525	Moonstone
200	Mortar and Pestle		200	Mortar and Pestle
175	Powdered Blood		75	Mystical Formula
150	Bruised Spore Pod		1550	Ornate Charm
150	Flint Knife		150	Page Torn from a Research Notebook
150	Glowmoss Spore		75	Phoenix Tavern Purchase Order
150	Hairy Trumpet Mushroom		65	Planar Spoor
150	Page Torn from a Research Notebook		750	Polished Ore
125	Amber Vial		425	Pouch of Bone Fragments
125	Blessed Candle		175	Powdered Blood
125	Chipped Bone Talisman		300	Research Diary
125	Deadly Feverblanch		0	Ritual Candle
125	Smoldering Ember		350	Romantic Sonnet
125	Sour Darkcap		75	Ruddy Fungus
100	Ceramic Bowl		225	Runic Parchment
75	Mystical Formula		1475	Scholarly Notes
75	Phoenix Tavern Purchase Order		15	Signet of the Devourer
75	Ruddy Fungus		1475	Silver Bowl
75	Slime Mold		1575	Silver Flame Hymnal
75	Sweet Whitecap		325	Singed Soarwood
75	Withered Cryptmoss		300	Skull Fragment
75	Zygomycota Fungus		75	Slime Mold
65	Planar Spoor		20	Small Planar Crystal
50	Crypt Moth		20	Small Wooden Idol
25	Duskbrood Trumpeter		125	Smoldering Ember
20	Amulet of the Six		125	Sour Darkcap
20	Small Planar Crystal		875	Sparkling Dust
20	Small Wooden Idol		500	Stone Fetish
15	Mark of the Keeper		5	String of Prayer Beads
15	Signet of the Devourer		0	Swaying Mushroom Cluster
10	Amulet of the Lost Empire		0	Swaying Mushroom Spore Pod
5	Blade of the Dark Six		75	Sweet Whitecap
5	Funerary Token		0	Vial of Heavy Water
5	String of Prayer Beads		575	Vial of Pure Water
0	Ritual Candle		500	Warehouse Ledger
0	Swaying Mushroom Cluster		850	Wavecrasher Cargo Manifest
0	Swaying Mushroom Spore Pod		75	Withered Cryptmoss
0	Vial of Heavy Water		75	Zygomycota Fungus

The 0 value collectables aren't used in bound crafting.

[EllisDee37]

Supply numbers are gathered using my Epic Challenge Runner, which happens to be ideally suited for collectable farming: Very fast run speed, many sprint boosts, invisibility, DDoor, and can use wings from exalted angel while farming collectables. For these time trials, I don't use sprint boost unless there's an available shrine to recharge them, and even then I limit it to one sprint boost per run. With 11-12 sprint boosts, that means I would have to shrine every 11-12 runs. Wings I use as much as is repeatable based on recharge rate, and figure echoes of power can pay for unlimited wings.

It's not assumed that other people would be able to replicate these speeds; the average build will almost certainly be slower. The key is to find the relative farming speeds based on a single build, and having an optimized farmer seems like the best way to go.


Some of the less obvious columns in the supply table are:

Realms denotes if the quest is in the Forgotten Realms, which removes Eberron-only collectables from the pool of possible drops.

Time is how long it takes for a full run, beginning and ending at the same place. This can also be a link to a youtube video showing a run.

Arcane, Lore, Natural and Any are simple counts of how many dispensers of each type are collected each run.

Common, Uncommon and Rare show the average time it would take to farm up any one specific collectable. This factors in the basic chance based on frequency (75%/20%/5%), how many collectables there are in the pool for that tier + frequency, and also includes Any dispensers at their suspected rates. Those rates are currently set as follows, but these may change (and thus change the table values) if more data is acquired in the linked thread:

22% Arcane
50% Cultural
20% Lore
8% Natural

Note: When reading this table, out-of-school collectables are just bonus extras that aren't factored into the time needed. Consider the Tier 3 Lore farm Eyes of Stone: The 1 natural and the 1 arcane don't mean anything other than that they're there. The three Lore dispensers are the only ones that matter in terms of time to collect. ("Any" would count too, but there are none in that farm.)

School

Tier

Quest

Realms

Difficulty

Time

Arcane

Lore

Natural

Any

Common

Uncommon

Rare

Arcane

1

Tomb of the Crimson Heart

Normal

1:15

4

1

1

0:24

1:29

5:55

Arcane

2

Enemy Within

Casual

3:05

10

1

0:48

3:01

12:04

Arcane

3

Enemy Within

Normal

3:05

10

1

1:12

4:32

18:06

Arcane

3

Through a Mirror Darkly

Yes

Casual

4:05

10

1:05

4:05

16:20

Arcane

4

Through a Mirror Darkly

Yes

Normal

4:05

10

1:05

4:05

16:20

Arcane

5

Through a Mirror Darkly

Yes

EC

4:05

10

0:33

2:02

8:10

Arcane

6

Through a Mirror Darkly

Yes

EN

4:05

10

0:33

2:02

8:10

Cultural

4

Wheloon Prison

Yes

Heroic

4:30

17

0:42

5:18

21:11

Cultural

5

Wheloon Prison

Yes

Epic

4:30

17

0:42

2:39

10:35

Cultural

6

Precious Cargo

EH

0:50

2

1:07

4:10

16:40

Lore

1

Repossession

Normal

0:35

1

2

0:23

1:28

5:50

Lore

2

Repossession

Elite

0:35

1

2

0:47

2:55

11:40

Lore

3

Eyes of Stone

Normal

1:30

1

3

1

1:20

7:30

30:00

Lore

4

Schemes of the Enemy

Normal

2:05

4

1

1

0:40

2:29

9:55

Lore

5

Schemes of the Enemy

Elite

2:05

4

1

1

0:40

2:29

9:55

Lore

6

Terminal Delirium

EN

2:20

2

3

1

1

0:58

3:39

14:35

Natural

1

A Small Problem

Normal

2:30

10

0:20

1:15

5:00

Natural

2

Last Stand

Normal

0:45

3

0:40

2:30

10:00

Natural

3

Assault on Summerfield

Normal

1:15

9

0:33

2:05

8:20

Natural

4

Breaking the Ranks

Yes

Normal

0:40

5

0:21

1:20

5:20

Natural

5

Breaking the Ranks

Yes

Elite

0:40

5

0:21

1:20

2:40

Natural

6

Breaking the Ranks

Yes

EN

0:40

5

0:11

0:40

2:40

Collectables flagged as Eberron-only:

Charred Soarwood
Lightning-Split Soarwood
Singed Soarwood

[EllisDee37]

What I'm thinking is to assign a value between 1 and 10 to each category, then add up the totals for every shard a collectable is used for to get their demand value.

Universal: 10 points
Universal effects are desirable for every possible build.

Common: 8 points
Common effects are used by many builds, possibly (probably?) a majority of them.

Uncommon: 6 points
Uncommon effects are used by a fair number of builds, though clearly a minority.

Niche: 4 points
Niche effects are very desirable, but only for a small handful of build types.

Obsolete: 2 points
Obsolete effects are better off being replaced by using augments. Still, you might have a reason to craft these if you need it on a lower ML than the augment allows, or maybe the augment is too expensive to acquire.

Rarely Used: 1 point
There is probably someone, somewhere, who will want to use any one of these effects, but for the most part they have little value.

Group	Universal	Common	Uncommon	Niche	Obsolete	Rarely Used
Stats	Constitution	Strength, Dexterity, Intelligence, Wisdom, Charisma
Energy Absorptioon						Acid, Cold, Electricty, Fire, Sonic
Banes				Construct, Chaotic Outsider, Evil Outsider, Lawful Outsider, Undead, Unnatural		Aberration, Animal, Dragon, Dwarf, Elemental, Elf, Giant, Gnoll, Goblinoid, Halfling, Human, Incorporeal, Monstrous Humanoid, Ooze, Orc, Plant, Reptilian, Vermin
DPS		Accuracy, Armor Piercing, Deadly (regular), Doublestrike/shot, Melee/Range Alacrity, Seeker		Shield Bashing, Insightful Deadly
Defense	Insightful Fortification, Sheltering, iPRR, iMRR	Dodge, Healing Amp		Spell Resistance, Natural Armor, Protection, Negative Amp, Repair Amp	Fortification (regular only)
Stat Damaging						Strength, Dexterity, Constitution, Intelligence, Wisdom, Charisma
Guard						Acid, Evil, Fire, Good, Ice, Lightning, Piercing, Solar, Sonic, Undead
Misc	False Life			Diversion, Incite, Vampirism, Vitality	Striding
Weapon Procs			Good, Bludgeon, Piercing, Slashing	Chaos, Evil, Force, Light, Bashing, Shield Spikes		Acid, Cold, Electric, Fire, Law, Negative, Poison, Sonic
Energy Resistance				Light		Acid, Cold, Electric, Fire, Negative, Poison, Sonic
Save	Resistance, Parrying		Spell Saves	Enchantment Saves		Disease, Fortitude, Illusion, Poison, Reflex, Will
Skill			Spellsight, Search, Spot, Disable Device, Open Lock	Concentration, Heal, Bluff, Diplomacy, Intimidate, Haggle, Hide, Move Silently, Jump, Swim, Perform		Balance, Listen, Repair, Tumble
Spellcasting		Wizardry (regular)		Spell Penetration, Insightful Wizardry
Spell Focus			Evocation	Conjuration, Enchantment, Necromancy, Spell Focus Mastery		Abjuration, Illusion, Transmutation
Spell Lore				Acid, Cold, Electricity, Fire, Force, Light, Negative, Positive, Repair, Sonic		Universal
Spell Power		Devotion		Combustion, Corrosion, Glaciation, Impulse, Magnetism, Nullification, Radiance, Reconstruction, Resonance		Potency
Static				Aligned, Efficient Maximize, Eternal Faith, Everbright, Ghost Touch, Invulnerability, Keen, Lesser Casting Dex, Metalline, Persuasion, Silver Flame, True Seeing	Blindness Ward, Deathblock, Feather Fall, Underwater Action	Blueshine, Efficient Empower / Empower Healing / Enlarge / Extend, Fearsome, Regeneration, Sacred, Songblade, Twilight, Unbalancing, Vengeful
Tactics			Combat Mastery, Stunning	Assassinate		Shatter, Tendon Slice, Vertigo

Except for Fortification, Deadly and Wizardry, all effects listed also include their Insightful version.

Vitality, Insightful Deadly and Insightful Wizardry are downgraded due to only being craftable in a single slot.

[EllisDee37]

What I'm looking for now is feedback on any effects you think I've put in the wrong category. Also any feedback on the points system is welcome.

[Ulfo]

DEX. Seeker, Deadly put to Universal, Natural Armor and Protection to Uncommon, Damage proc Good, Force, Light, Bludgeoning, Piercing, Slashing to Universal, Rogue skill to Nishe, Spell Penetration to Universal, exchange Doublestrike and Melee Alacrity for Doubleshot and Ranged alacrity.

[FuryFlash]

What I'm thinking is to assign a value between 1 and 10 to each category, then add up the totals for every shard a collectable is used for to get their demand value.

Universal: 10 points
Universal effects are desirable for every possible build.

Common: 8 points
Common effects are used by many builds, possibly (probably?) a majority of them.

Uncommon: 6 points
Uncommon effects are used by a fair number of builds, though clearly a minority.

Niche: 4 points
Niche effects are very desirable, but only for a small handful of build types.

Obsolete: 2 points
Obsolete effects are better off being replaced by using augments. Still, you might have a reason to craft these if you need it on a lower ML than the augment allows, or maybe the augment is too expensive to acquire.

Rarely Used: 1 point
There is probably someone, somewhere, who will want to use any one of these effects, but for the most part they have little value.

Awesome work so far, EllisDee - I've always been a fan of your projects and use your character planner all the time. Thanks for all the contributions you make to the community.

As for the demand numbers, values between 1 and 10 may be pretty, but since these numbers are an important factor in the final calculation these might need more specific tuning.

For one thing, to reach more reasonable numbers as to what we're seeing right now on the market in game, more categories will probably need to be added. It's just too hard to separate these into such a small number of categories and expect realistic results; looking at the niche category, I don't think "Shield Spikes" and "Spell Penetration" are anywhere near the same supply, yet they are in the same category and therefore are using the same number in the calculation.

Perhaps something more like the following?

Rather than specifically named categories like common or niche, just a simple 1 to 10 scale where 10 is the most common. This should not be the number used in the final calculation!

Rating	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1
Examples	Constitution	Strength	Wizardry	Spell Penetration	Combustion	Natural Armor	Bluff	Incite	Bashing	Elf Bane

Filled it with some examples which are just off the top of my head and would preferably be refined over time. Agree or disagree, the point is that the effects in the lowest categories are no where near the top categories, whereas many fairly popular shards are only slightly different values, leaving the middle categories to determine slight differences. I would expect the very lowest values would be very full and the middle and top categories would be relatively evenly spread - of course, it's all relative so the actual magnitude of the values doesn't really matter.

Now, most importantly, the actual "value" of each category. This can't be some arbitrary number because it's used in the final calculation and is one of the few values making it very impactful on the result. Getting the right values here would again require refining and discussion.

The problem with your values of 1 to 10 for the calculation is that "False Life" isn't crafted 10 times more than "Elf Bane". It's crafted at least 100 times more. We can't show that kind of variation with whole numbers between 1 and 10. In fact, the suggested table I made above might not even have enough columns for ranking demand, because of the variation that some shards have. Still, using my table above, let's say we give the 10 category a value of 10. We can't give the 1 category a value of 1, but depending on what is determined based on actual in-game popularity maybe something like 0.1 would be appropriate for the least crafted shards. This is an internal value, so I wouldn't be afraid to use decimals. We still have the pretty 1 to 10 categories or whatever is decided for number of categories, which is irrelevant to the calculation.

For example, with 10 columns, you might have the following actual values:

Rating	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1
Actual Value	10	8	6	5	4	3	2	1	0.5	0.1

This is all just numbers I came up with off the top of my head. The main thing is that the difference between the highest and lowest should be very high.

Hopefully this helps - I might just be spouting non-sense.
I look forward to following your progress on this project!

[EllisDee37]

Added an estimate for Terminal Delirium for Tier 6 Lore based on my paladin running it a couple times just now. The time of 2:20 involves skipping the locked room entirely, so it misses out on 3 more arcanes, but that's appropriate for a lore farm, I think.

My collectable farmer could probably do it faster, so once the store issues get squared away I'll buy a guest pass (only 70 TP) to capture video. I say "probably" because the collectable farmer dps is very low compared to a capped character, and there is a fight at the start, but we'll see.

As for the demand numbers, values between 1 and 10 may be pretty, but since these numbers are an important factor in the final calculation these might need more specific tuning.
[...]

Excellent thoughts, thanks much for the feedback.

One thing to keep in mind is that I think you're putting more emphasis on the effect of the lower end of the demand scale than is warranted. Consider Elf Bane using the current formula, which only costs Cryptmoss Worm Larva and a soul gem:

Cryptmoss Worm Larva = 40 * (1 + 8 + 1 + 6 + 1 + 1 + 4 + 8 + 6) * (700 / 3600) = 280 essences

If we set elf bane worth 0 instead of 1 in the demand table, that number changes to:

Cryptmoss Worm Larva = 40 * (1 + 8 + 6 + 1 + 1 + 4 + 8 + 6) * (700 / 3600) = 272 essences

I mean, it's different, sure, but not a ton. Worrying about whether the exact demand value for unused bane shards should be 1 or 0.1 or 0.01 or whatever would be missing the forest for the trees, I think. The 1-10 scale for demand was deliberately chosen to be not super granular because demand values are so subjective. I wanted to make it as generalized as possible. A player who only runs S&B builds might think your example on Shield Spikes is off the mark, for example.

Let's see how the numbers shake out as it is now, and then adjust as appropriate. It'll take me a bit to add the data to my crafting planner so I can generate the final table, but once that's done we can revisit the demand scale.

[krimsonrane]

Insightful Fortification and false life arn't universal. Paladins and fighters in defender don't need it. Nor do barbs need false life. Drawven con users either.

[psykopeta]

Insightful Fortification and false life arn't universal. Paladins and fighters in defender don't need it. Nor do barbs need false life. Drawven con users either.

hp and fort are universal, period, it's not like dc for spells or melee attributes, fort over 100% is mandatory at certain point and hp is too given the nice chamñd we have out there hitting like brakeless trucks

[SirValentine]

What I'm thinking is to assign a value between 1 and 10 to each category, then add up the totals for every shard a collectable is used for to get their demand value.

Did you include demand based on Stone of Change recipes? If not, that may well bump a few up.

[EllisDee37]

Did you include demand based on Stone of Change recipes? If not, that may well bump a few up.

I originally planned to, but then never did.

[Tols]

Here's the final value table, both by value and by collectable.

This is an amazing project and data table, thank you very much!

Tols.

[EllisDee37]

My first experience using the data was positive. I definitely felt much more confident after the transaction that we both received fair value, compared to the last time I did a large collectable trade when I was left feeling like "I'm pretty sure one of us got ripped off, but I have no idea which one."

[Draeqo]

Great thread, love it
I have made my own valuation sheet for collectables based on shards, I traded the collectables a lot so I have a fair understanding of their relative worth.
Also I sold lots and lots of rare collectables, so they are certainly worth a lot. Most of them sell for more than Silver Flame Hymnals (but then so do several uncommon ones, so perhaps I'm too cheap on the Hymnals . On Ghallanda at least there are apparently still a lot of guild crafters and people with too many Astral Shards, hence lots of demand for rare collectables.


I wondered about the obsolete column. OK I also rarely craft Fortification (just Ins.Fort.), because I use augments for normal Fort (or racial or named items).
But Feather Fall, Deathblock and UWA? Sure I often have augments for FF & DB, but the FF and DB augments are quite a bit rarer than the Fort ones. So I tend to re-craft the item (leaving those augments in place, or I have to use a jeweler's toolkit... FF or DB crafted is cheaper IMHO. So for leveling up I more often go for crafted, certainly FF (and UWA).


And a few changes I would like to propose.

[Static]
Propose to move up Aligned, Metalline, Keen and Ghost Touch, as I see those very often on crafted weapons.

[Spell Power]
Potency: move up, very often used as backup for a.o. multi-element casters (with sticks & augments supplying max for specific spellpowers). Not going to switch sticks just because I'm switching to using less common spells.
E.g. Sorc/Wizzy with strong Force and Corrosion (or Electric) spells needing to do Fire or Ice spells.
Same for arcane archers. Can't have just one element. Need (say) Corrosion (or Electric) and Force. But archers (or repeaters) only have one red augment slot. And once you move to the named weapons, or are using a special non-elemental spell power augment, you still need the spellpower.

IMHO Spellsight is a must have, or at least very nice to have, for many classes (majority I think) so make that Common or Uncommon.

Devotion: move down. Why have it when you can't self heal using spells? Not needed for Bladeforged, Warforged, Undead and all scroll healers (quite a number of classes have no innate options of casting a healing spell). Just for Cocoon (for when the scroll healers have that)? IDK, and one can wear that as an augment.
Also we all already have Potency and Spellsight, right?

[Defense]
Natural Armor and Protection are much more common for non-heavy armour / non-tanks, say move to uncommon.

[Spellcasting]
Insightfull wizardry I will always craft for wizard or sorcerer, despite only one spot for it. That spot is reserved.
You can never have too many SP, really.

[Selvera]

IMHO Spellsight is a must have, or at least very nice to have, for many classes (majority I think) so make that Common or Uncommon.

I think you're overvaluing spellsight. It does not give positive spellpower. It does not give sonic spellpower. It does not give repair spellpower. So it's good for?

nearly all Warlocks, Sorcerers.
Some wizards, artificers, fvs, druids and clerics.

Which is about half the classes, if you consider a class which has a build which uses it as a class that uses it. (Certainly I wouldn't consider the majority of wizards, clerics or druids to be max-damage-spellpower types, and "spellsight" gives considerably less then "spellpower").

I'm quite happy to have devotion and heal crafted into both of my sets of slavelords gear (8 and 28), and I really don't feel the need to craft spellsight into any of the items.

[Draeqo]

I think you're overvaluing spellsight. It does not give positive spellpower. It does not give sonic spellpower. It does not give repair spellpower. So it's good for?

nearly all Warlocks, Sorcerers.
Some wizards, artificers, fvs, druids and clerics.

Which is about half the classes, if you consider a class which has a build which uses it as a class that uses it. (Certainly I wouldn't consider the majority of wizards, clerics or druids to be max-damage-spellpower types, and "spellsight" gives considerably less then "spellpower").

I'm quite happy to have devotion and heal crafted into both of my sets of slavelords gear (8 and 28), and I really don't feel the need to craft spellsight into any of the items.

That is fine, but I still think devotion is overrated and spellsight underrated in that overview.

Spellpower determines the amount of DPS for many builds. Every little bit counts.
Spellcraft/spellsight is a class skill for Artificers, Bards, Clerics, Druids, Favored Souls, Sorcerers, Warlocks, and Wizards. And Arcane Archers can use it too, that means many Rangers and Repeater Rogues. That is 8 to 10 out of 14.

Sure Devotion is a must have for healers but the have to be able to cast healing spells, without scrolls. So Clerics, Druids, Favored Souls, Paladins and Rangers. That is 5 out of 14.
A few races have innate healing, like Halfling or Aasimar. We are still left with more than half of the playerbase who either use repair, are undead or need to use scroll healing.

Of course in the epics we have a few more options, like Cocoon.
I just never thought of using devotion (just for Cocoon) when in Epics as a Wizard, Sorcerer, Arcane Archer or Warlock. But then all of those had Potency + Spellsight.
Perhaps I should