Crafting success rates seem off

[Drekisen]

Sorry but I went over to the unbound shard machine tonite after I ran out of stuff I could do at the bound shard machine......I was trying 50% shards in the unbound and I know I am gonna have some misses but I had no kidding at least 10 failures in a row...after that I didn't bother even trying to get a success.....fix the machines or fix your numbers please. I could have leveled probably a few times over with 90-100% shards even tho they are less XP...I guess that's the best way to go until this system actually works accurately.

It's broke...there is no argument...fix it please.........at least 2/10 would have been something...but 0/10 is broken end of story.

BTW....the 50% bound shards seem to work fine.

[Simplesimon1979]

Who know your 11th try may of been a winner. With just ten samples it's hard to tell. I've failled on a 90% chance two times in a row. It's just bad luck.

[Drekisen]

Who know your 11th try may of been a winner. With just ten samples it's hard to tell. I've failled on a 90% chance two times in a row. It's just bad luck.

I could believe that maybe but they seem to always mess something up that was working previously when a new update comes out.

I know all about bad luck but seriously.....it is broken.

If they want to skew the luck percentages that much then at least lower the cost to make them.

I have learned my lesson anyways...only 75% or higher...maybe 70% if I am feeling daring...otherwise it seems like a complete waste to even bother with anything with a lower percentage than that.

[lronEnema]

I am in little doubt that there has been a stealth nerf to the success rates of crafting shards.

For my own interest I've been collecting data for a few months in a fairly simple way: running total of the percentage chance of success. FOr example, if I am crafting a shard for which I have a 75% chance - if I succeed I add 25 to the score. If I fail I take away 75.

Currently, after 185 shards I am at minus 2020. Roughly 20 more failures than I should have had. Data set is still relatively small and the method of tracking crude, but I am comfortable I am already out of the realms of simple variance.

I suspect that the nerf to the amount of essences in the chest and the reduction in success rates are an attempt to slow down the speed with which players are levelling their crafting.

[Drekisen]

Honestly they should just leave stuff alone....I mean what is the point of all the stealth nerfs...so what people are leveling fast crafting...like they can't think of 100 other ways to make money instead of constantly messing with the game in a deceptive sneaky way.

Oh well..whatever...I am over it already....I learned and moved on....stop doing such low % shards and I will be happy.

I really shouldn't complain....I have gotten a lot of nice loot and stuff in this game...including stuff people have farmed years for.....I guess bad luck is compensating for my past good luck.

[muffinlad]

People have long suspected that Turbine has some additional "reduction in chance" (or improvement in chance) math going on beyond what posted...but without a larger study, it is going to be very hard to spot.

Regards,

muffinlucky

[Cauthey]

Take it one step at a time...

[Stanley_Nicholas]

I imagine it's similar to some of their other percentage calculations. Such as how 30% striding isn't actually 30%, but rather 20-something. I too have experienced far more failures than I should expect when attempting <100% success shards.

By the way, the odds of trying a shard with 50% odds ten times and failing every time are: .5^10 = 0.09765625% chance. Less than 1 in 1000 chance. Not inexplicable odds so perhaps you just got greatly unlucky, but it's definitely an outlier.

[Tolero]

Checked with the Engineers, and there haven't been any direct changes to crafting to muck with success rates. Will run some tests and see if it's just bad luck or if it's something awry.

[Gadget2775]

**SNIP**
By the way, the odds of trying a shard with 50% odds ten times and failing every time are: .5^10 = 0.09765625% chance. Less than 1 in 1000 chance. Not inexplicable odds so perhaps you just got greatly unlucky, but it's definitely an outlier.

Might be broken...Might not. However, I'd hazard that for every player out there complaining about string of 10 (50%) failures there's another player who isn't complaining about their string of 10 (50%) successes.

[Solmage]

I have had over 10 successes in a row on a 50% chance. Fix this, it's totally broken!

Anyway, in case you didn't notice in all this time playing DDO the nature of their random number generator is that it's very streaky, for lack of a better term. If you fail, use a booster or try a few shards at lower difficulty, and then come back to your 50% shard. And yes, I have really succeeded over 10x in a row on a 50% chance, I have pulled 20 large scales in 20 consecutive shrouds, and then never again in 2-3 months. It happens.

[Imatotalnoob]

Well 70% used to be the glitchy number in crafting and only 70%
now after the last update it seams to have moved to 75%

What I mean is in my experience of about lvl 95 in all schools
That those % have the highest rate of failure out of all the success rates
And it's not the arty bonus because my main was not and arty and this life is one
So I've done both

So I just stay away from 75% chance ATM, hell i got a better chance with 50%
Happyto do some testing fir u devs, just let me know.
I love crafting, love the concept, love the flexibility.
But for the love of everything cut down on the collectable weight.

[Kaytis]

I hate to perpetuate what may just be a misreading of the results, but I noticed a while back that one failure often leads to an unbroken string of increasingly improbable failures on the same shard -like millions to one improbable failures. And it happens frequently. So as soon as I fail on a shard now, I switch to another one. When you come back to the one you were trying you seem to be back in the realm of probability again. I have seen other people mention these remarkable improbabilities with shard crafting as well.

I suspect the reverse affect applies as well. When crafting low probability shards I see very unlikely strings of successes -although it is much harder to be sure since the probability of success increases with each attempt.

[NytCrawlr]

Might be broken...Might not. However, I'd hazard that for every player out there complaining about string of 10 (50%) failures there's another player who isn't complaining about their string of 10 (50%) successes.

I know I am not complaining. Wasn't a string of 10, but was quite a few 50% chance successes in a row while I leveled my crafting the other day.

[Calebro]

Might be broken...Might not. However, I'd hazard that for every player out there complaining about string of 10 (50%) failures there's another player who isn't complaining about their string of 10 (50%) successes.

This.
In case anyone wasn't aware of how probabilities work, let me explain it to you.
If you have a 50% chance to succeed, it doesn't mean that you might have to try twice. It means you may get it on your first try, and you may get it on your 14th try.
The results of any past event have absolutely no bearing on the probability of the next event.
You could fail 67 times in a row. Do you know what your chance of success is for your 68th try? Yep, it's 50%, just like it was before.

Ten measly attempts is nowhere NEAR a large enough sample size for anyone to claim that it's broken. At this point it's just bad luck.

[Missing_Minds]

My bet is on "not broken, working as intended"

However... I don't know if the % chance we are being shown is accurate.

[Dagolar]

Sorry but I went over to the unbound shard machine tonite after I ran out of stuff I could do at the bound shard machine......I was trying 50% shards in the unbound and I know I am gonna have some misses but I had no kidding at least 10 failures in a row...after that I didn't bother even trying to get a success.....fix the machines or fix your numbers please. I could have leveled probably a few times over with 90-100% shards even tho they are less XP...I guess that's the best way to go until this system actually works accurately.

It's broke...there is no argument...fix it please.........at least 2/10 would have been something...but 0/10 is broken end of story.

BTW....the 50% bound shards seem to work fine.

I've had streaks of misfortune just like this since crafting was released. It seems to be an issue with the randomization being used.

The easiest, and most friendly fix would be to have failures give a very slight increase to success rate.

[Gadget2775]

The results of any past event have absolutely no bearing on the probability of the next event.
You could fail 67 times in a row. Do you know what your chance of success is for your 68th try? Yep, it's 50%, just like it was before.

I was thinking about that when I wrote my orginial post, but wasn't sure how to say it nice(ish)ly.

[Calebro]

I was thinking about that when I wrote my orginial post, but wasn't sure how to say it nice(ish)ly.

Yep.
And the odds of failing ten times in a row aren't even all that extreme at 1 in 1024.
So before the first attempt, the odds of ten consecutive failures are 1 in 1024.
But after the 9th straight failure, the odds of the streak going to ten aren't 1 in 1024, they're 1 in 2.

[bhgiant]

Your chances of failing 10 times in a row at 50% each.
.5^10 = 0.0009765

Extremely unlikely but... this is why I don't gamble.

Edit: dang, ninja'd.