Procs - are they going off often enough?

[fco-karatekid]

one thing that has to be understood is how randomness is managed in ddo, they seem to be using a routine that gives you a 0% chance for most of the time but gives you a 50% for a short time, in the very big numbers this means the change is say a 5%, but in the shot play is not

I will try to explain, you usually see no proc of whatever for 200 swings, but then suddenly in 20 swings you get 10 procs, this is something most people sees usually, and shows how "randomness" is implemented in ddo, in the long run you have a 5% proc, but still it's not true randomness

If that's true, it explains why you can almost force procs on items to increase simply swapping out then back in...

[PNellesen]

I think the devs know if they nerfed torcs they would have some very unhappy gamers to deal with....

Given how long I farmed ADQ on my clerics to get them (and I still haven't even seen one drop, for anyone, on one of my clerics in almost 20 runs)... yeah, I'd be a "bit" unhappy if they nerfed them. Way more unhappy than I was when they nerfed auto-crits on held mobs, or when they nerfed FoM so that it no longer blocked Earthgrab, or any other recent nerf you'd care to mention.

[NXPlasmid]

Although this sort of a differnt proc, the light bringer proc on the mabar wraps went way down between when the wraps were released and when they got their other nerf to disruption. Personally, I think there has been a change in the way the randomness of the die rolls is generated. There seems to be a much greater probability to roll a few consective 1s, versus a few consecutive 20s. When you have an attack bonus over 50 and see 4 misses in a row, then 4 more within 15 seconds or so, just make one wonder if the rolls are really random... Spoon

[Kinerd]

one thing that has to be understood is how randomness is managed in ddo, they seem to be using a routine that gives you a 0% chance for most of the time but gives you a 50% for a short time, in the very big numbers this means the change is say a 5%, but in the shot play is not

I will try to explain, you usually see no proc of whatever for 200 swings, but then suddenly in 20 swings you get 10 procs, this is something most people sees usually, and shows how "randomness" is implemented in ddo, in the long run you have a 5% proc, but still it's not true randomness

I encourage you to record data for yourself. Take any weapon proc you like, and do let's say 10 bins of 50 swings. You could probably knock it out in under an hour. Bring your results here, and we will see with which theory the results are consistent.

[Nines9]

I did check this on live. What was wierd is that certain mobs seem to process more often.

Every time there's a patch I go out to the devil battlefield, grab a few orthons and a couple archers, and let them fire at me. I just like to know if a nerf/stealth nerf is coming, which I don't doubt will happen at some point. Easiest way to test for me. After just going out the proc rate for torc and for con op (individually) seem the same as on live. Getting tons of sp from the torc, the con op seems to have a much higher chance for temp hp then sp, but that might have just been chance.

Whether 2 con ops still function as they do on live idk.

[THOTHdha]

I encourage you to record data for yourself. Take any weapon proc you like, and do let's say 10 bins of 50 swings. You could probably knock it out in under an hour. Bring your results here, and we will see with which theory the results are consistent.

The problem with things like this is that in order to get a statistically significant sampling to have anything like a reasonable certainty you'd need in the area of 16k recorded swings. 500 is... well, not enough to really show anything.

[Kinerd]

The problem with things like this is that in order to get a statistically significant sampling to have anything like a reasonable certainty you'd need in the area of 16k recorded swings. 500 is... well, not enough to really show anything.

If I wanted to prove something was 1.5% instead of 2%, sure. If I wanted to prove something was 0% instead of 50%? Plenty.

[LeLoric]

one thing that has to be understood is how randomness is managed in ddo, they seem to be using a routine that gives you a 0% chance for most of the time but gives you a 50% for a short time, in the very big numbers this means the change is say a 5%, but in the shot play is not

I will try to explain, you usually see no proc of whatever for 200 swings, but then suddenly in 20 swings you get 10 procs, this is something most people sees usually, and shows how "randomness" is implemented in ddo, in the long run you have a 5% proc, but still it's not true randomness

You mistake even distribution for random distribution. You expect the former but want to call it the latter.

As long as over a large enough sample size you approach the selected % chance it doesn't matter where in the sample those processes happened.

[Rawel_San]

You mistake even distribution for random distribution. You expect the former but want to call it the latter.

As long as over a large enough sample size you approach the selected % chance it doesn't matter where in the sample those processes happened.

While you're right in essence what I would expect is that each hit is an independent random variable with a
discreet distribution having 15/1000 chance to come up heads (proc) and 985/1000 chance to come up tails
(not proc). Where as what you're saying is consistent with things such as never proc in first twenty hits then make
up for it. That can easily still give you a 1.5% proc rate on average but it's not actually very random. Worse yet
it's conistent with dependent distributions where you say have a counter which makes sure you get the right
proc rate. Neither of these are what we want or expect but all will assuming large enough samplings where you're
only focusing on procs vs. non procs come up with the result 1.5% proc rate but for very different reasons.

These things are why doing statistical analysis is incredibly hard if you don't have enough data on which to make
basic assumptions.

[GoldyGopher]

Green Steal - Lightning II - a minimum of 3500 attacks - 16 Proc Effects. This results in slightly less then .5%, with a 1.5% Proc rate one would expect around 50.
This is the main hand weapon of a TWF build, I placed a +1 Rapier in the off hand so this results in a slight variation in the number of attacks per mob. Yes I know now that had I just skipped the off hand weapon I would of had a more precise count of number of attacks, but my brain was on autopilot when I was thinking about it.

In looking at the data I wrote down it appears that the Proc effect never occured on either the first swing of an attack chain or the last. I was not however looking for that. However had that been the case I should have expected around 32 proc effects.

During my running around to kill those 275 mobs (I didn't feel like resetting the instance again) I did not notice the Epic Torc procing once. In all fairness I was watching my SP, not HP, and I may have missed one or two, but considering how often it goes off on live it should have been a fairly often occurance.

My final test was a Pally with just wearing her Existential Stalemate Green Steel Gloves. One mob, one hireling (a devil) and proximiaty to the Gullet Trench Shrine. I was watching specifically her SP, not HP as Heystack was doing the healing to keep me up. In roughly an hour and 15 minutes I did not recover a single SP. I should note that when Heystack went off to heal I chugged pots and went into a more defensive stance uping my AC

At this point I hope you can agree that my data points show something is a miss here.

[Indoran]

I was just on lamma... it looked like procs where just fine... have li2s red dragon armor and other stuff that has chance to proc... felt just fine...

[LeLoric]

While you're right in essence what I would expect is that each hit is an independent random variable with a
discreet distribution having 15/1000 chance to come up heads (proc) and 985/1000 chance to come up tails
(not proc). Where as what you're saying is consistent with things such as never proc in first twenty hits then make
up for it. That can easily still give you a 1.5% proc rate on average but it's not actually very random. Worse yet
it's conistent with dependent distributions where you say have a counter which makes sure you get the right
proc rate. Neither of these are what we want or expect but all will assuming large enough samplings where you're
only focusing on procs vs. non procs come up with the result 1.5% proc rate but for very different reasons.

These things are why doing statistical analysis is incredibly hard if you don't have enough data on which to make
basic assumptions.

You are still focused on even distribution versus random distribution. It is in fact random to have 0 procs in the first 100 swings then get three in a row as long as that is not the case every time you do the same sample. Just as it would not be random to have all your thousand swing samples having a proc every 1/15th of the total sample. Having done multitudes of swing samples for proc chances I can assure you this is not the case.

[LeLoric]

Green Steal - Lightning II - a minimum of 3500 attacks - 16 Proc Effects. This results in slightly less then .5%, with a 1.5% Proc rate one would expect around 50.
This is the main hand weapon of a TWF build, I placed a +1 Rapier in the off hand so this results in a slight variation in the number of attacks per mob. Yes I know now that had I just skipped the off hand weapon I would of had a more precise count of number of attacks, but my brain was on autopilot when I was thinking about it.

In looking at the data I wrote down it appears that the Proc effect never occured on either the first swing of an attack chain or the last. I was not however looking for that. However had that been the case I should have expected around 32 proc effects.

During my running around to kill those 275 mobs (I didn't feel like resetting the instance again) I did not notice the Epic Torc procing once. In all fairness I was watching my SP, not HP, and I may have missed one or two, but considering how often it goes off on live it should have been a fairly often occurance.

My final test was a Pally with just wearing her Existential Stalemate Green Steel Gloves. One mob, one hireling (a devil) and proximiaty to the Gullet Trench Shrine. I was watching specifically her SP, not HP as Heystack was doing the healing to keep me up. In roughly an hour and 15 minutes I did not recover a single SP. I should note that when Heystack went off to heal I chugged pots and went into a more defensive stance uping my AC

At this point I hope you can agree that my data points show something is a miss here.

That does cause some concern, I'll load up my wizzy later and do some torc/conopp testing to see if getting the same.

[Dark_Helmet]

...

At this point I hope you can agree that my data points show something is a miss here.

Nice,
Did you make note of which mob and what kind of damage it is doing (in case it is related to non-base weapon damage causing issues)?

[Seikojin]

Since a couple people have suggested they to have seen lower amounts, Bug Report Sent.

Like a boss.

How many swings did you record for each test? 10000 is a lot to ask, but it gives a wide range to get your data from.

[Calonderial]

More interestingly, which I have tested over and over, I notice that Concordant Opposition procs more often under certain circumstances. Piercing damage seems to cause it to proc more often than anything else, time and time again. I've gone to areas where piercing is more popular (such as the Vale of Twilight), and areas where it happens less (like Demon Sands).

Agreed, 80% of all my procs from Conc Opp items are from archer damage the rest mostly from slashing

[brian14]

Not on Lamannia, but for several days my Vacuum goggles did not drop a single Soul Gem -- to the point I began to wonder about changes to proc rate. Then, in Eerie Forest during fight with vampire rare Varney, I got TWO "Soul Gem: Weak Animal" within a minute of each other. Varney summons five (I think) worgs, and two of them got soul-trapped. Go figure.