Drops rates in first 2 wks of new content vs week 3 and beyond

[IronClan]

There is no change in the rate of loot drops based on time since the quest or raid was released. If any drop rates are increased or decreased, that is done during game updates, and listed in the Release Notes. I know this is one of DDO's longest-running conspiracy theories (I was asked about this in-game last night, even...), but it simply isn't true.

Indeed selection and confirmation bias adequately explain this myth. Lots of people run it like crazy in the first weeks, friends and guildies link loot in chat "got mine" full groups give appearance of more drops (6 chances instead of 4 or 5) running it to ransack in one day gives more openings to give higher impression of drops.

[IronClan]

As someone that's been farming eNecro for a year, ransacking 4 characters a month then giving up in disgust til next month, and NEVER having seen an epic Chord of Reprisals.... It MUST be true!

Or I'm Wi-Flagged.

Wow I've left these in the chest when no one else wanted them (I don't vendor loot, it takes away time I could spend playing the game and plat is pretty unimportant once you're never buying random loot off the AH) you've had some seriously bad luck man.

[Chi_Ryu]

I'm sorry Cordovan (and no disrespect intended), but the evidence (admittedly, it's mostly anecdotal) says otherwise. I, myself, have noticed the drop rate differences and they're very pronounced. Clearly, I'm not the only one who's noticed this.

My equally worthless anecdotal evidence is that I've never seen any drop rate difference for which I cannot rule out a) variance and b) observer biases. I've heard this theory a lot, and it just doesn't match with my experience.

[Thar]

There is no change in the rate of loot drops based on time since the quest or raid was released. If any drop rates are increased or decreased, that is done during game updates, and listed in the Release Notes. I know this is one of DDO's longest-running conspiracy theories (I was asked about this in-game last night, even...), but it simply isn't true.

It would be interesting to see what the data shows. Obviously something new gets run more and run more = more chances, however Observations seem to back up that conspiracy.

[FestusHood]

Last night 8 of us decided to run Caught in the Web on normal. There were 4 weapon drops, 3 of them to one guy!

I'm glad we got in early.

[Thalone]

Sigh, this again.

I was going to suggest a community-wide effort to track drop rates of named items when the new pack dropped, but then realised it would be pointless. The conspiracy-theorist response would undoubtedly be, "THE DEVS ARE OBVIOUSLY WATCHING THIS EVIDENCE-GATHERING AND HAVE TURNED OFF THE RATE VARIATION. JUST YOU WATCH, THE MOMENT YOU STOP COLLECTING DATA THEY WILL NERF THE RATES!!!

Excuse me while I go cry in the bathroom at the general public's woefully inadequate knowledge of basic concepts in statistics.

[Steve_Howe]

Excuse me while I go cry in the bathroom at the general public's woefully inadequate knowledge of basic concepts in statistics.

Yes, because none of us "unwashed masses" understands a thing about statistics.

I probably shouldn't have written this book then, huh?

Get over yourself.

[Grailhawk]

There is no change in the rate of loot drops based on time since the quest or raid was released. If any drop rates are increased or decreased, that is done during game updates, and listed in the Release Notes. I know this is one of DDO's longest-running conspiracy theories (I was asked about this in-game last night, even...), but it simply isn't true.

Given that you guys didn't know about +10 to mob saves when a mob is at full health for years, are you 100% sure that there isn't more going on here then you think?

I'm not saying that the "conspiracy theory" is accurate or even right, but I wouldn't be surprised if there was something else contributing to it existence, maybe some kind of counter not allowing x named item to appear until after y chest opens? I don't know but the anecdotal evidence strongly supports this theory.

[Chi_Ryu]

I probably shouldn't have written this book then, huh?

Then you should know better than to make such strong statements on weak anecdotal data.

[Jasparion]

Then you should know better than to make such strong statements on weak anecdotal data.

But we should trust a Turbine employee who offers up zero data?

[Steve_Howe]

Then you should know better than to make such strong statements on weak anecdotal data.

I did enough by identifying the fact it was anecdotal.

I don't have the time, nor the inclination honestly, to actually sit down and try to prove what I say statistically.

I relayed my observations based on my years of observational experience. I get that's probably not good enough for all you wanna-be professional statisticians but, quite frankly, I don't care.

[Chi_Ryu]

But we should trust a Turbine employee who offers up zero data?

I'm not asking for anyone to "trust" anyone. I'm saying that there's a lot of people making very strong statements based purely on anecdote*, and seeming to totally discount cognitive biases and plain old variance.

For all I know Turbine could well be changing the drop rate secretly, but I haven't seen anything stronger than anecdote to support this idea.

(* Another of these anecdotal things that everyone seems to know, but is really down to a cognitive bias - "instance 2049 is always laggy")

[blerkington]

Given that you guys didn't know about +10 to mob saves when a mob is at full health for years, are you 100% sure that there isn't more going on here then you think?

I'm not saying that the "conspiracy theory" is accurate or even right, but I wouldn't be surprised if there was something else contributing to it existence, maybe some kind of counter not allowing x named item to appear until after y chest opens? I don't know but the anecdotal evidence strongly supports this theory.

Hi,

It could be observer bias and lack of understanding about how statistics works, or there could be something unintentionally wrong with the code which is difficult to diagnose.

The game has a history of this, where people speculating about certain raid loot tables being broken have been dismissed in the past. Without being in possession of all the facts it's better to keep an open mind.

The conclusion that everything is fine rests on the assumption of nothing being broken, but this can and does happen. Besides that, I think there is a good commercial reason to have higher drop rates when packs are new to encourage sales.

Thanks.

[Chi_Ryu]

I did enough by identifying the fact it was anecdotal.

I don't have the time, nor the inclination honestly, to actually sit down and try to prove what I say statistically.

I relayed my observations based on my years of observational experience. I get that's probably not good enough for all you wanna-be professional statisticians but, quite frankly, I don't care.

This level of academic dishonesty amuses me for someone who claims to have written a book on statistics.

You made a very forceful and entirely unsupported statement, far in excess of a mere "relaying of observations" and did not initially state it was due to anecdote until pressed. Shall I remind you?

Which is a load of nonsense. Drop rates CLEARLY change shortly (a few weeks, usually corresponding with the first update/hotfix) after the initial release of the new content.

[Steve_Howe]

But we should trust a Turbine employee who offers up zero data?

Thank you.



And really, the only way to actually PROVE beyond a reasonable doubt would be to basically break the rules regarding use of the DDO client and also breaking the rules to post about the results.

If I had the expertise, I could delve into the client after an update, find the loot tables and record my findings. When it's clear the items in question are dropping less often than they were right after the update's release, I could go back into the client and check the loot tables again and compare my two sets of data. Of course, as I said, "de-constructing" the client to find this data breaks some rules and then reporting the results on the DDO Forums breaks some Forum rules. I am unwilling to do either.

So, if you folks really want to satisfy your own curiosity and answer this question once and for all, you'll have to figure a way to find and figure out the loot tables in the client. Good luck!

[Steve_Howe]

This level of academic dishonesty amuses me for someone who claims to have written a book on statistics.

I did not write what I wrote for academic reasons. I wrote it on an internet forum. Who cares?

[Grailhawk]

Hi,

It could be observer bias and lack of understanding about how statistics works, or there could be something unintentionally wrong with the code which is difficult to diagnose.

The game has a history of this, where people speculating about certain raid loot tables being broken have been dismissed in the past. Without being in possession of all the facts it's better to keep an open mind.

The conclusion that everything is fine rests on the assumption of nothing being broken, but this can and does happen. Besides that, I think there is a good commercial reason to have higher drop rates when packs are new to encourage sales.

Thanks.

I do not believe that the developer team out and out lies to use about something, that would just be bad business and way to risky all it would take is one disgruntled employ to leak that data and a PR nightmare would erupt.

I'm not concluding that every thing is fine (though I have never really had a hard time getting the gear I wanted so my be I just don't think this is a big deal over all) I'm actually pointing the fact that even the dev's don't always know whats up.

[Hafeal]

That's the point. There is no evidence.

Of course there is evidence.

It's called "Hotfix."

[blerkington]

I do not believe that the developer team out and out lies to use about something, that would just be bad business and way to risky all it would take is one disgruntled employ to leak that data and a PR nightmare would erupt.

I'm not concluding that every thing is fine (though I have never really had a hard time getting the gear I wanted so my be I just don't think this is a big deal over all) I'm actually pointing the fact that even the dev's don't always know whats up.

Hi,

No, I think if it were intentional, the best thing to do would be to say nothing about it. Just let it be a community myth that the company never addresses. While I can think of occasions where developers have been mistaken or spinning certain issues, I don't think they are habitually deceitful with us.

I didn't take your post to mean everything is fine, and my quoting you along with what I said is a bit misleading in that way. When I rewrote it, I just forgot to say 'good point'. None of the discussion up until your comment had addressed the possibility that this was caused by code functioning in an unintended way.

Anyway, there are a number of possible explanations for these effects, and without direct knowledge of their systems none of this discussion gets us any closer to the truth.

Thanks.

[Kamode_Corebasher]

Thank you.



And really, the only way to actually PROVE beyond a reasonable doubt would be to basically break the rules regarding use of the DDO client and also breaking the rules to post about the results.

If I had the expertise, I could delve into the client after an update, find the loot tables and record my findings. When it's clear the items in question are dropping less often than they were right after the update's release, I could go back into the client and check the loot tables again and compare my two sets of data. Of course, as I said, "de-constructing" the client to find this data breaks some rules and then reporting the results on the DDO Forums breaks some Forum rules. I am unwilling to do either.

So, if you folks really want to satisfy your own curiosity and answer this question once and for all, you'll have to figure a way to find and figure out the loot tables in the client. Good luck!

I believe that code would be on the server, not the client...the client would just receive the results of the role. Now, question is: how to get our hands on the server code ;-)