hardcore dice rolls

[badm0f0]

You rolled 39 on your Daily Dice and earned a Uncommon Currencies prize!
[8:25 AM]
You rolled 3 on your Daily Dice and earned a XP & Platinum prize!
[8:27 AM]
ou rolled 21 on your Daily Dice and earned a Uncommon Currencies prize!
[8:28 AM]
You rolled 21 on your Daily Dice and earned a Uncommon Currencies prize!
[8:30 AM]
You rolled 29 on your Daily Dice and earned a Uncommon Currencies prize!
[8:34 AM]
You rolled 2 on your Daily Dice and earned a XP & Platinum prize!

anyone else having this much good luck?
these were gold rolls 15 shards a roll

[C-Dog]

anyone else having this much good luck?
these were gold rolls 15 shards a roll

o https://gamblersanonymous.org/ga/locations/

Good luck.

[Memnir]

RNG is R.

[Uska]

My first roll was 10k xp and a true heart of wood good thing I banked it first quest I died

[Enoach]

Usually, the house throws you a taste win, to get you hooked... Might consider this is not the best way to spend the shards

[cdbd3rd]

RNG is R.

As evidenced when trying to level CC crafting. Very R dice.

[badm0f0]

Is RNG truly random?
Random number generators are typically software, pseudo random number generators. Their outputs are not truly random numbers. Instead they rely on algorithms to mimic the selection of a value to approximate true randomness.

[Maxem]

“It’s not gambling if you are going to win”

[badm0f0]

how random is it really ? since posting the other day havnt rolled higher 45? i logged into hc and rolled a 44 then logged in to home server gallanda and rolled another 44 ?

[ahpook]

how random is it really ? since posting the other day havnt rolled higher 45? i logged into hc and rolled a 44 then logged in to home server gallanda and rolled another 44 ?

type /roll d100 into a console/chat window. Do that a few 100 times and see if the results are sufficiently random.

[KoobTheProud]

If you have the money to spend shards on gold rolls go ahead and roll the dice.

If each roll is going to spend scarce asserts that are consequential to the time you spend in game then just don't roll.

It probably takes something like 250 rolls to guarantee you're not going to feel totally screwed by a bad run of luck.

[badm0f0]

8 more days of gold daily rolls and cant roll higher than 50...lesson learned DONT spend shards on gold rolls ,,,,cancelling vip ..not worth the vip when for months rolls are less than 50 ..

[GoldyGopher]

8 more days of gold daily rolls and cant roll higher than 50...lesson learned DONT spend shards on gold rolls ,,,,cancelling vip ..not worth the vip when for months rolls are less than 50 ..

I roll on multiple servers everyday. In the past two days I rolled a 100, a 98, a 94, and a 90, as well as a 12, 22, and other such nonsense.

[KoobTheProud]

I roll on multiple servers everyday. In the past two days I rolled a 100, a 98, a 94, and a 90, as well as a 12, 22, and other such nonsense.

I did this for awhile but it's not worth the time spent to login and logout of all those servers given I am unlikely to actually play the characters on them.

Oh, I just remembered that one of the other reasons I stopped is that every server was full at 270 shared bank slots and all the character slots.

Never mind...

[Dendrix]

My very first gold roll on hardcore (this season) was 100.
I got a useless +8 Cha tome

So you aren't the only one with rubbish luck
I had literally just read a +8 supreme tome on my character before doing that roll

[Bolo_Grubb]

I have done gold and silver rolls on every server since the start of the season pass because I wanted to track and see the result of thousands of rolls.

So far I have tracked 18,621 daily dice rolls.

My simple average for all of those is 50.75
My simple average for all gold rolls is 51.15
My simple average for all silver rolls is 50.41
The different servers range from the lowest 49.97 to the highest at 51.40 combined silver and gold rolls.

My rolls of 99 or 100 is 1.8% of my rolls

[SoulDustar]

I have done gold and silver rolls on every server since the start of the season pass because I wanted to track and see the result of thousands of rolls.

So far I have tracked 18,621 daily dice rolls.

My simple average for all of those is 50.75
My simple average for all gold rolls is 51.15
My simple average for all silver rolls is 50.41
The different servers range from the lowest 49.97 to the highest at 51.40 combined silver and gold rolls.

My rolls of 99 or 100 is 1.8% of my rolls

What is the average roll of a d100?

That's why it works as a percentile dice. The average roll would be 50.5 (again, works just like figuring the average on any single die roll--average the maximum and minimum rolls).


What are the odds of rolling a 1 on a d100?

It is always 1/100. Previous rolls of the die do not influence future rolls.



I would say Bolo has proven this to be true by tracking over 18k in daily rolls

[DYWYPI]

The gambler's fallacy is a cognitive bias, meaning that it's a systematic pattern of deviation from rationality, which occurs due to the way people's cognitive system works. It is primarily attributed to the expectation that even short sequences of outcomes will be highly representative of the process that generated them, and to the view of chance as a fair and self-correcting process.

There is insufficient evidence to suggest the "Daily Dice" are rigged regarding the rolls themselves (refer to [Post #40]).

[...] Applying (Pearson's chi-squared test) for that dice should be plenty enough to tell you if the dice is likely to be biased. :-)

One of the more interesting "goodness-of-fit" applications of the chi-square test is to examine issues of "fairness" and "cheating" in games of chance, such as cards, dice, and roulette. ;-)

So we need to look to see if the 'observed values' are close to the 'expected values', which I crudely mentioned in the prior post.

[...]

Robust Statistical Analysis using (Chi-squared test)

Total amount of Observations (dice rolls): 1274
Expected Frequency per any d100 single face occurrence (1274 × 1/100): 12.74

Null Hypothesis (H₀): Dice is fair (unbiased)
Alternative Hypothesis (H₁): Dice is unfair (biased)

Level of Significance, i.e. area in the tail: (alpha) 0.01

Degrees of Freedom (DF); Sample size (total rolls, i.e. distinct possible categories, we used 100 rows to record), minus one (N – 1): 100 – 1 = (DF): 99.

For finding the Critical value (tail of graph and rejection region area). We'll just use 99 for DF, as I don't have specialised statistics software and I'm not calculating it longhand (DF 99 is solid enough) for this dice.

Looking on an official Chi-square table using (DF 99) and (alpha 0.01) Critical value, i.e. P-value (probability): 134.642 rounded 134.64.

Therefore if our dice exceeds the (above) P-value [134.642] "Daily Dice" is likely loaded.



Chi square: X² = sum [(Observed - Expected)²/Expected]

For example using [Post #10] data: Roll 1; Observed value 12, minus Expected value: 12.74 (squared) divisible by Expected 12.74, equals: 0.042983... Then rinse and repeat, i.e. total all the X² for 1274 rolls.

Our Test Statistic equals: 108.4176

We can easily see: 108.4176 is far less than P-value: [134.642].

Therefore we fail to reject: Null Hypothesis (H₀): (we accept) Dice is fair (unbiased)

The roll results and calculations can be found within: [Post #42].

Conclusion

The "Daily dice" DO NOT appear to be loaded. In fact the statistical model shows there is an excellent chance of ~ 99% percent the dice aren't loaded. (That's what the alpha 0.01 value we tested against means basically).

Events are just plain erratic (fundamental uncertainty). Random events are often described as 'clumpy' because clumps of 'wins' or 'losses' sometimes occur.

Nothing is certain; nothing is ever due to happen (independence of events).

Things do not have to even out, but sometimes seem to, as more observations are added (law of large numbers).

Law of Large Numbers: As the sample size increases the average of the actual outcomes will more closely approximate the mathematical probability.

A sampling error is a statistical error that occurs when an analyst does not select a sample that represents the entire population of data. As a result, the results found in the sample do not represent the results that would be obtained from the entire population.


Another problem is that the human mind is predisposed to find patterns and does so very efficiently. For example, natural formations like the "face" in the Cydonia Mensae region of Mars, or the "Man in the moon", which have human-like features, are interpreted as images of people. If a person was walking in the jungle and saw a pattern of light and dark stripes in the shadows, it would be prudent to assume that the pattern was a tiger and act accordingly. The consequences of incorrectly assuming that the pattern is not a tiger far outweigh those of incorrectly assuming that it is. But when applied to random events, this survival "skill" leads to errors.

We learn through experience and logically induce general rules on that basis. If our experience is limited, we may induce the wrong rule. A chance occurrence may lead to false expectations. As a result, a win the first time one plays a game, or a win after some extraneous event, may lead to the formulation of an erroneous general rule.

[badm0f0]

I have done gold and silver rolls on every server since the start of the season pass because I wanted to track and see the result of thousands of rolls.

So far I have tracked 18,621 daily dice rolls.

My simple average for all of those is 50.75
My simple average for all gold rolls is 51.15
My simple average for all silver rolls is 50.41
The different servers range from the lowest 49.97 to the highest at 51.40 combined silver and gold rolls.

My rolls of 99 or 100 is 1.8% of my rolls

wow so getting 50 and below is the norm

[DYWYPI]

People will often judge the coin-tossing sequence of; H, H, H, H, H, H as being less random than; H, T, H, H, T, H, even though the probability of obtaining each of these given sequences is identical: 1/2 x 1/2 × 1/2 × 1/2 × 1/2 × 1/2 = 0.015625.