Collectable Valuation Project

[EllisDee37]

Lore Tier 4 and 5 is up: Schemes of the Enemy. I forgot there's also a natural in the run, so it's 4 lore, 1 natural, 1 any in 2:05. This particular farm really plays into the build's strengths: No fighting, long stretches of running, and you need unbuffed jump of 40 and open lock in the low 60s. Plus there's a shrine right at the start for recharging the 12 sprint boosts.

There's actually another natural if you hang a left at the fire trap, but it would just add time and risk spawning a rare. There's really no point to slowing down for a natural in any tier covered by Breaking the Ranks.

EDIT: Yeah, initial testing shows Assault on Summerfeld may indeed be clearly superior to Last Stand. Too bad it's only for Tier 3, but hey, Tier 3 is the crucial one.

EDIT 2: Wow, 9 tier 3 naturals in what looks like 1:15, no fighting, in Assault on Summerfeld. That absolutely crushes Last Stand's 3 in 0:45. I'm hopeful that Small Problem can be similarly better for tier 2, and be the primary tier 1 farm as well.

[EllisDee37]

Natural is now finished, with video for Assault on Summerfield and A Small Problem added.

Small Problem ended up being the same speed as Last Stand: 15 seconds per dispenser. I left Last Stand as the tier 2 because its 15-second speed is less reliant on run speed and sprint boost.

[Drekisen]

Natural is now finished, with video for Assault on Summerfield and A Small Problem added.

Small Problem ended up being the same speed as Last Stand: 15 seconds per dispenser. I left Last Stand as the tier 2 because its 15-second speed is less reliant on run speed and sprint boost.

How many did you end up getting in Summerfield, I was hitting 9 in 1:30

[EllisDee37]

How many did you end up getting in Summerfield, I was hitting 9 in 1:30

9 in 1:15, though the linked video is only 1:08. I'm tempted to change that to 1:10, but I'm not sure I can maintain 1:10 with having to shrine once every 12 runs. I can definitely maintain 1:15.

[Drekisen]

9 in 1:15, though the linked video is only 1:08. I'm tempted to change that to 1:10, but I'm not sure I can maintain 1:10 with having to shrine once every 12 runs. I can definitely maintain 1:15.

Awesome....glad that one worked out....I couldn't handle loading in and out of Sinister Storage for just three which motivated me to find a new one

[Dielzen]

I'd say that Ooze is slightly higher on the demand scale, as mid-level ooze beaters (and 2h ones) are of good value.One thing when doing your matrix is to differentiate how many are needed for a recipe. 15 Commons are faster to farm than 5 Uncommons, but that doesn't do you any good until you get the 5 you need. What about an effectthat, while useful, may only be able to be crafted in 1 gear slot, making it harder to actually be used?And then once you have all your data what's the plan? Demand_Score X Time_to_Farm (which is based on your average farm for that item times how many are needed in recipes, and doubled for things that have more than one common/uncom/rare) = some number that represents an index value to assign to a Plat value?

[EllisDee37]

I'd say that Ooze is slightly higher on the demand scale, as mid-level ooze beaters (and 2h ones) are of good value.

If you mean Everbright, yeah, I can move that up a notch, along with Ghost Touch. I think my initial thoughts (which I've forgotten) were that they were both such a high level that not many people actually craft them, but they are for sure more valuable than, say, Efficient Maximize or Eternal Faith.

I'm thinking Keen should also get bumped up.

One thing when doing your matrix is to differentiate how many are needed for a recipe. 15 Commons are faster to farm than 5 Uncommons, but that doesn't do you any good until you get the 5 you need.

I hadn't considered that. It's actually closer than you might think, where the farming numbers seem reasonably close to 4:1 farming time compared to 3:1 recipe usage. So where it might take 5:00 to farm up 15 tier 1 natural commons, it would take 6:15 to farm up 5 uncommons. Not a huge difference, but it's definitely a difference so thanks much for pointing it out. I'll keep it in mind.

What about an effectthat, while useful, may only be able to be crafted in 1 gear slot, making it harder to actually be used?

Vitality's demand is heavily downgraded for that exact reason. Are there any other effects you can think of like that?

[EllisDee37]

And then once you have all your data what's the plan? Demand_Score X Time_to_Farm (which is based on your average farm for that item times how many are needed in recipes, and doubled for things that have more than one common/uncom/rare) = some number that represents an index value to assign to a Plat value?

The current idea is:

Supply = Seconds to farm up 1
Demand = Sum of all demand values this collectable is used for
Essences = Constant value equal to average number of essences generated per second when running a typical hour-long solo epic daily run. (Tobias => VON3 => Spies => Mirror, figure 600 essences in an hour.)

Value in Essences = Supply * Demand * Essences

Credit to SuperNiCd for coming up with the idea of using the rate of epic dailies for the essence multiplier. I hadn't thought that far ahead, and assumed I would just look at the Supply * Demand products and come up with an arbitrary multiplier to get to an essence value, but I rather like the idea of the multiplier based on something in-game.


Some examples:

Glass Phials = 245 * (10 + 6) * (600 / 3600) = 653 essences
Fragrant Drowshood = 125 * (1 + 4 + 8 + 10 + 4) * (600 / 3600) = 563 essences


EDIT: I actually intend to add a Saturation flag, where I can arbitrarily assign it to any collectable to force its essence value to be 1. This would be for Strings of Prayer Beads, Blades of the Dark Six, Sweet Whitecaps, Funerary Tokens, etc...

[SuperNiCd]

I actually intend to add a Saturation flag, where I can arbitrarily assign it to any collectable to force its essence value to be 1. This would be for Strings of Prayer Beads, Blades of the Dark Six, Sweet Whitecaps, Funerary Tokens, etc...

By the way, thanks for taking the time to make videos for most of these runs. Definitely plan on watching them all to see where I can make improvements to my farm speeds.

One thing I was thinking about. Having this model in and of itself could actually influence the valuation of collectibles. To give an example, let's say Fragrant Drowshoods turn out to be the most valuable collectible. One or more players on a given server may not even be interested in crafting, but are interested in the acquisition of AS (or theoretically plat, but in practice I doubt it XD). So they begin farming for Drowshood and post them on the ASAH. If at some point the market becomes saturated with Drowshood, it necessarily begins to drive the price down. The price in shards, but it would probably also affect its value in both essences and collectible to collectible ratios.

Not sure if that is something that is possible to factor into the model as it's both dynamic and possibly server specific. But it may happen, and if it does it will affect the valuations.

[EllisDee37]

Added Lore Tier 1 (Baudry), Lore Tier 2 (Immortal Heart) and Arcane Tier 1 (Crimson Heart.)

Crimson Heart has 2 natural and 2 any that may or may not appear, so I listed it as having 1 of each. The four arcanes are always there. Immortal Heart actually has 10 arcanes and 4 lores, but getting all 14 takes around 4:00. When I update the CC Builder Lite farming data I'll include it. (My plan is to redo all the collectable data offered by my planner as my own data.)

EDIT: In a way I'm all done except cultural. I haven't done Lore Tier 6 yet, but I think that's going to be Terminal Delirium, and unfortunately the account with my collectable farmer doesn't own that pack. It didn't own Secrets of the Artificers either, but I bought that pack for it yesterday so I could capture the run, and now that account has <25 TP left. Maybe I'll just run Terminal Delirium on my paladin? Run speed and DDoor are mostly non-issues in that one. I dunno.

[Dielzen]

Another issue is bound vs unbound

How do we account for the fact that many of the low-skill items won't be crafted as unbound due to it being easy to get over 100 skill just from melting down your own loots, which makes the rares for those tiers virtually useless?

[EllisDee37]

To be honest, I haven't given any thought toward and have no interest in unbound crafting. I'm mainly interested in common and uncommon collectables for bound crafting.

[EllisDee37]

Is it fair to count dualboxing in terms of farming times?

Gargoyles give tier 5 cultural, and I was thinking if I bestow the last sorrowdusk quest to my farmer, she can run from the quest to the gargoyle ambush right next to it, then DDoor back to the quest, enter, then my dualbox alt standing on the ship can reset the wilderness each run.

If that ends up being faster than the garl's tomb gargoyle ambush, is it fair to use, do you think?

[SuperNiCd]

I don't dual box. Seems like it would add a level of fuss that I'm not quite ready to take on.

That said, not sure how much bias it would introduce into the model. Guess it depends on whether the majority of people are multi-boxing for farming purposes, and what the time differences are vs. solo farming.

Regarding unbound crafting, my interest in it is pretty small as well. I would do it as a favor for a friend if they asked, but I definitely wouldn't do it to try to sell unbound items. The value proposition doesn't seem to be there, at least for me personally.

[EllisDee37]

I think I found a better ornate charm farm than precious cargo, ironically while flagging for precious cargo just now for ornate charm farming.

EDIT: Sadly, I did not. There are 2 backpacks right at the start of Prove Your Worth, but the second backpack is behind a gate that closes when you enter the room. I can sprint boost + wings well past the gate before it closes, like almost in the room beyond it. But then when the gate closes it cheats and magically rubberbands me back behind the gate.

I could get the just the first backpack in the trap hall and run back outside, leave and reset in 25 seconds per run. I tried tavern brawl, but the recall takes forever; at least 30 seconds per run. So it looks like precious cargo is still the best ornate charms farm, unfortunately, at 50 seconds per run for a backpack and a rubble.

[EllisDee37]

Hoo boy, Ornate Charms sure are valuable based on this measure:

Glass Phials = 245 * (10 + 6) * (600 / 3600) = 653 essences
Fragrant Drowshood = 125 * (1 + 4 + 8 + 10 + 4) * (600 / 3600) = 563 essences
Ornate Charms = 250 * (8 + 6 + 10 + 8) * (600 / 3600) = 1333 essences

Seems about right to me, though for me personally I value drowshood more around 800.

I'm really not seeing the huge value of Glass Phials that everyone else claims. My last heroic TR generated at least 20, possibly 30. When the crafting pass went live I had something like 80-90. I've crafted six complete gearsets (all had constitution, of course) and even traded away 15 phials to someone in the crafting hall. One TR life later and I'm back up to 72.


For comparison, let's run some numbers on less valuable collectables to see if the numbers pass the smell test:

Brass Censers = 33 * (4 + 8 + 10 + 8) * (600 / 3600) = 165 essences
Slime Mold = 21 * (1 + 4 + 1 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 8 + 1 + 1 + 1) * (600 / 3600) = 116 essences
Crypt Moth = 11 * (8 + 10 + 8) * (600 / 3600) = 48 essences

I'm not hating these numbers.

[SuperNiCd]

Bummer on the ornate charm farm. I had high hopes!

I think the glass phials valuation is driven more heavily by the demand side of the equation. I would think CON is possibly the most universally desirable effect. And the supply side just depends on what content you're running. I have been working on Epic PLs for my main, and not on the RXP and rTRs that many are, so I'm not accumulating them naturally at the moment.

For the ones you chose for the comparison:
Brass Censers = 165 essences
Slime Mold = 116 essences
Crypt Moth = 48 essences

These are passing the sniff test for me too. These are all things I seem to accumulate without specifically farming for them. I will check my stacks of those and see if these number pass that empirical test.

EDIT: My empirical evidence looking at my stacks supports these numbers. They actually show that Crypt Moth would be a bit more valuable than Slime Mold, but I think my stacks are skewed on Slime Molds from spamming Lords of Dust so hard for quite a while.

[EllisDee37]

I'm thinking there should be some kind of devaluation for collectables gathered during epic dailies. I don't currently have any concrete ideas on how to accomplish that, but tomorrow I'll run the quickie hour dailies to get some stats:

Exact count of collectables clicked (schools & tiers)
Total essences earned, both from chest pulls and loot decon
Time spent from login to logoff

Any ideas on the mechanics of how an epic daily collectables penalty might work are welcome. The justification for the penalty is that epic dailies are probably the most-run quests in the game, so the total population of collectables available for trade on any given server will be inflated compared to collectables in other tiers.

EDIT: Maybe -1% per pull? So, like, if there's 10 tier 5 arcane pulls total, that would be -10%?

[Mornyngstar]

This won't help with speed runs for collectables but I was just running thru Epic Wheloon and noticed a lot of backpacks, lost count at around 12ish. Only 1 was behind a locked door. There were also 2 cabinets, 1 in the hideout and another behind a locked door. Depending on speed/alert and familiarity this may be worth looking into.

(I am epic Tring a lot and running out of slayer areas, lol.)

[SuperNiCd]

Any ideas on the mechanics of how an epic daily collectables penalty might work are welcome.

Actually I do have an idea if you'll bear with me through the TL;DR that's going to follow.

Epic dailies are essentially another citation of the concept I was getting at in post #49 above, which I also only alluded to by example. So let me genericize the problem statement.

Right now, we're thinking about this valuation as a one-time, static list that is largely based on opportunity costs (measured in time) with an adjustment for estimated demand. In a vacuum this is as good as the model can get. What it doesn't take into consideration is real time market data, which is dynamic, time-sensitive, and likely server-specific. Essentially a reflection of what activities players are engaged in, their personal valuation of ingredients (outside the model), and a number of other factors.

Due to the game population we have a partial vacuum, but we actually do have access to some real time market information via the AH and ASAH. On Sarlona right now there are about 8 pages of collectibles on the ASAH - the majority cannith ingredients. So there's opportunity to improve the valuation: by making it an application instead of a static, one-time list. It is probably a fairly lightweight app - potentially just a spreadsheet, though I have it on good authority you have some excellent coding skills if this holds any interest.

Right now you're honing in on a value/cost in essences based on time data and demand projections. This is good. Essences are enough of a commodity item that we essentially know their current market value both in AS and plat.

The final valuation app could contain proposed (static, projection & time based) values for each collectible in terms of:

• Essences
• Ratio to another collectible
• AS
• Plat *
  

There could also be a real-time configuration item for the current mean cost of Essences, both in plat in AS.**

There could also be an over-ride for real time market data. For example, if you're looking for glass phials, you could look at the auction houses and see if there are any available. If so, plug the lowest buyout into the override (divided by quantity being sold to give price for one), and this would potentially cause a recalculation for glass phials.

If it increases the cost, there is no recalculation because we already know a base worth that is based on time, and the seller here is asking too much of a premium based on the time value. If the recalculation lowers the costs, then it recalculates, and you know you should be offering fewer essences or other collectibles to get that type, and roughly how many.

It's an idea - albeit one that increases the scope of your project lol.

* Its unlikely that some collectibles will ever appear on the plat market but you could still derive a theoretical value for them, and even potentially buy them with plat in practice. You could buy essences with plat and then trade the essences for collectibles, for example.

**On Sarlona at this moment, Essences are going for ~875 plat/ea, or 0.02 AS/ea.