Crafting Percentage

[Mr.Topes]

It's still happening. I've just rolled four fails with a chance of 61% - 35% booster plus 26% base - which if I'm not mistaken has a probability of happening a little more than 2% of the time. I could live with that, but I had a longer stretch of the same yesterday. As someone else commented, it would be fine if you could see the throws in the log, but no, you just have to assume the system is honest. Experience is telling me it's not. My wrath is unablated.

[Powerhungry]

It's still happening. I've just rolled four fails with a chance of 61% - 35% booster plus 26% base - which if I'm not mistaken has a probability of happening a little more than 2% of the time. I could live with that, but I had a longer stretch of the same yesterday. As someone else commented, it would be fine if you could see the throws in the log, but no, you just have to assume the system is honest. Experience is telling me it's not. My wrath is unablated.

RNG hates you. Don't worry it hates me too. I figure there is a 'luck' factor applied to your character upon creation and mine is a '1'. Crafting with a 65% success chance, I failed 15 times in a row. Sadly, this is not isolated. I have a screen shot of my saves in the combat log- six saves - 2,4,9,1,3,1 - those who run with me know I roll more 1's than anyone they know.

[Mr.Topes]

It's still happening. I've just rolled four fails with a chance of 61% - 35% booster plus 26% base - which if I'm not mistaken has a probability of happening a little more than 2% of the time. I could live with that, but I had a longer stretch of the same yesterday. As someone else commented, it would be fine if you could see the throws in the log, but no, you just have to assume the system is honest. Experience is telling me it's not. My wrath is unablated.

Plus the next three attempts. That's .39^7 now, that's a likelihood of 0.14% or one in 700. No way is that just bad luck.

[Mr.Topes]

RNG hates you. Don't worry it hates me too. I figure there is a 'luck' factor applied to your character upon creation and mine is a '1'. Crafting with a 65% success chance, I failed 15 times in a row. Sadly, this is not isolated. I have a screen shot of my saves in the combat log- six saves - 2,4,9,1,3,1 - those who run with me know I roll more 1's than anyone they know.

I suspect there's no new throw happening when it gets stuck like that. I tried just logging out my crafter, and coming back in. That didn't seem to improve anything, so I exited completely and restarted. That *may* do the trick. I wouldn't mind if it cut both ways - crafting gets stuck on "success" - but I can't afford to test it. 200 essences a go, burns through a lot of essences pretty quickly. As it stands, my level 25 wiz does the farming for materials and the daily burn, then my level 18 sorc does the crafting. Up to bound minimum 20 shards so far, going to be at least another life before I can craft at character level.

[C-Dog]

Well possible it is still improbable, 1 in 110 attempts or something like that.

It's not "improbable" - in fact, it's very likely. Almost a certainty. Why?...

First, 2^10 is close to 1000, not 100.

But the reason "almost a certainty" is that there are so many people out there rolling dice on these boards - it has to happen to someone!

And when it does (if they don't appreciate this fact), they're gonna post, and call it a bug.


Now, it's also true that it's not impossible that there is a bug. I've seen too much droploot duplicate itself - I think the rng gets hung up at times, if only for a moment. And that could make 10 tries closer to the equivalent of 5 tries, which makes 2^5 only 1 in 1/32.

But either way, accept that in a game with so many people rolling numbers, someone has to be unlucky, someone has to be the one at the stinky end of the bell curve. Sorry it had to be you (but, purely subjectively, better you than me!).