Drops rates in first 2 wks of new content vs week 3 and beyond

[Feralthyrtiaq]

It's time to stop this idiotically absurb mechanic that makes not ONE SINGLE NAMED ITEM drop for ANYONE in a raid after week 3.

Let alone newer content which seems to have the same RIDICULOUS change after week 3 or whatever stupid change to drop rates the developers do.


THERE SHOULD ALWAYS BE AT LEAST ONE GD PIECE OF NAMED GEAR FOR SOMEONE IN A PARTY OF 12 PEOPLE IN A RAID.

MAKE IT SO.

[Qhualor]

a dev commented on this before awhile back. he said drop rates are the same on day 1 as weeks 3.

[UurlockYgmeov]

a dev commented on this before awhile back. he said drop rates are the same on day 1 as weeks 3.

I remember this as well.

[Enoach]

I remember that as well.

Kind of think the reason this is perceived is because of how much new content is run in the first few weeks vs after that time.

[SirValentine]

THERE SHOULD ALWAYS BE AT LEAST ONE GD PIECE OF NAMED GEAR FOR SOMEONE IN A PARTY OF 12 PEOPLE IN A RAID.

MAKE IT SO.

It used to be that way. In fact, better than that: 2 named loot drops. Every single time.

See the wiki, under History: Pre module 5 Mechanic: "Prior to the release of module 5 at the end of a successful raid, the warded raid loot chest would always contain two pieces of warded raid loot..."

[Feralthyrtiaq]

No matter what the developers say regarding the drop rates I DO NOT BELIEVE A WORD OF IT.

Of course they are going to say "There is no change" to acknowledge differently is not in their best interest.

Hell, they may even see this and comment but I will not believe it.

The drop rates are too abyssmal for it to be more than "bad luck"

The collective player base knows differently based on ACTUAL GAMEPLAY.

Full weekend of raiding = 2 fire dragon phlogistons...

Absolutely pathetic and useless but it's something...right /pfffft

OFC I'll be on here complaining about Epic GS grind long before I EVER see a SINGLE TF Tier 3 Upgrade...

I don't even give a hoot about Mortal Fear. There are other great effects that can be added but....whatever.

[jalont]

No matter what the developers say regarding the drop rates I DO NOT BELIEVE A WORD OF IT.

Of course they are going to say "There is no change" to acknowledge differently is not in their best interest.

Hell, they may even see this and comment but I will not believe it.

The drop rates are too abyssmal for it to be more than "bad luck"

The collective player base knows differently based on ACTUAL GAMEPLAY.

Full weekend of raiding = 2 fire dragon phlogistons...

Absolutely pathetic and useless but it's something...right /pfffft

OFC I'll be on here complaining about Epic GS grind long before I EVER see a SINGLE TF Tier 3 Upgrade...

I don't even give a hoot about Mortal Fear. There are other great effects that can be added but....whatever.

LOL, by and large, the playerbase doesn't know much. Other things the playerbase "knew": The original enhancement pass was a major nerf to toons.
The last "nerf" patch was going to kill sb paladins.
The ranger changes in the last patch nerfed archer rangers


As for why the drop rates are so low (and they haven't been changed. that's just conspiracy theory nonsense), they are low because DDO is gated by time spent grinding rather than challenge. If you read around the forums, this seems to be the way the vast majority of players want it to be. Once you start saying the game should be challenging, they go into an uproar. So, if you want a different mechanic, then maybe you should be more vocal on supporting nerfs to player power and a return of challenge in DDO.

[Feralthyrtiaq]

My builds are nerf free. Nerf's do not affect me in the least. I don't care. I am successful finding challenge soloing w/e EE I choose to attempt. I don't play Fotm builds and sure as hell don't rely on the newest shiniest Fotm as my bread and butter for DDO.

Pally nerf...don't care.
Ranger AA nerf don't care.
Warlock nerfs...really annoyed on the basis of principle. I paid for it. Then it gets nerfed...twice. But <3 the class despite the nerfs even if the damage is lower than release so really it equates to DON'T CARE.

However, THESE ARE RAIDS....Not just more challenging quests.

DDOs raids are not endgame. DDO has never ever really had an endgame...ever. Which I am sure people would argue the contrary but /shrug.

Shadow and Fire dragon raids have been off my radar from the beginning due to lag fails...one after the other...DoJ too.

Now the lag is better...considerably so now I am back to the same place. Do I enjoy the raid enough on it's own despite the abysmal loot drops? Generally no.

I consistently overcome the challenge I set for myself as much as I am able despite not having the best and brightest shinies from raids. I have learned to adapt to not having the best of the best.

The only thing that kills raid longevity quicker than loot is lag (or broken 20th list like we had in Abbott a few years back)

Believe me..and I am being 100% honest here...

Better loot drops and COMPLETE GD 20th lists would BREATH SO MUCH MORE LIFE INTO THE RAID SCENE THAN THE CURRENT TRIPE WE HAVE.

Low drop rates do NOT add to a raid's longevity despite this commonly held belief.

It's such a grind that if I ever did get a named item that worked with my current build it would kill the content for me because the road to get there is uphill both ways with 10 feet of snow and 5 minutes of lag.

[Steve_Howe]

a dev commented on this before awhile back. he said drop rates are the same on day 1 as weeks 3.

Which is a load of nonsense. Drop rates CLEARLY change shortly (a few weeks, usually corresponding with the first update/hotfix) after the initial release of the new content.

This seems to be true, not only for the raid, but also for the regular quests as well.

[JOTMON]

It's time to stop this idiotically absurb mechanic that makes not ONE SINGLE NAMED ITEM drop for ANYONE in a raid after week 3.

Let alone newer content which seems to have the same RIDICULOUS change after week 3 or whatever stupid change to drop rates the developers do.


THERE SHOULD ALWAYS BE AT LEAST ONE GD PIECE OF NAMED GEAR FOR SOMEONE IN A PARTY OF 12 PEOPLE IN A RAID.

MAKE IT SO.

They say there is no difference, but I always had better pulls in the first couple weeks vs later... adjusts tinfoil hat...
Everyone is triple checking drops before pulling from chest to read up on the goodies.. so new drops are more readily recognized.
When the quest is new.. nobody is ransacked..

In a lot of ways it makes sense though, the first two weeks are when all the trial and error is happening working out mechanics and figuring out how to complete the raid effectively.
I use way more resources working out nuances in new content than I do once its figured out.
After a couple weeks raids are starting to be run fairly efficiently so the bulk of the effort from the learning curve has dissipated.
Players eyes glaze over named non-desired drop items while looking for items they are interested in..

I do like the incremental 20's full reward list, and more so with the mythic bonuses only being seen on in game drops at higher difficulty.
Its good motivation to run the raid for both the incremental 20's to get the named item I want, and continue running beyond 20's to get the in-game random drops for the slightly better version.

Many of us remember old school abbot/titan/von/dq and the hundreds of runs while still not getting the items we wanted.
I have full sets of gear for multiple toons from MOD/DOJ from incremental 20's.. pretty straight forward farm..
and yet.. 1000+ runs and only 1 eSOS, 1 epic spell storing ring.. 1 heroic abbot quiver..1 Torc.. 1 Chattering Ring..
..loot is easier now..

[Cordovan]

Which is a load of nonsense. Drop rates CLEARLY change shortly (a few weeks, usually corresponding with the first update/hotfix) after the initial release of the new content.

This seems to be true, not only for the raid, but also for the regular quests as well.

There is no change in the rate of loot drops based on time since the quest or raid was released. If any drop rates are increased or decreased, that is done during game updates, and listed in the Release Notes. I know this is one of DDO's longest-running conspiracy theories (I was asked about this in-game last night, even...), but it simply isn't true.

[Systern]

There is no change in the rate of loot drops based on time since the quest or raid was released. If any drop rates are increased or decreased, that is done during game updates, and listed in the Release Notes. I know this is one of DDO's longest-running conspiracy theories (I was asked about this in-game last night, even...), but it simply isn't true.

As someone that's been farming eNecro for a year, ransacking 4 characters a month then giving up in disgust til next month, and NEVER having seen an epic Chord of Reprisals.... It MUST be true!

Or I'm Wi-Flagged.

[Steve_Howe]

There is no change in the rate of loot drops based on time since the quest or raid was released. If any drop rates are increased or decreased, that is done during game updates, and listed in the Release Notes. I know this is one of DDO's longest-running conspiracy theories (I was asked about this in-game last night, even...), but it simply isn't true.

I'm sorry Cordovan (and no disrespect intended), but the evidence (admittedly, it's mostly anecdotal) says otherwise. I, myself, have noticed the drop rate differences and they're very pronounced. Clearly, I'm not the only one who's noticed this.

[jalont]

I'm sorry Cordovan (and no disrespect intended), but the evidence (admittedly, it's mostly anecdotal) says otherwise. I, myself, have noticed the drop rate differences and they're very pronounced. Clearly, I'm not the only one who's noticed this.

That's the point. There is no evidence. It's random people saying so. People that have already proven time and time again that they don't know what they're talking about. Just the fact that they create a vast conspiracy instead of admitting that they don't know what they're talking about calls into question their judgement.

[losian2]

I'm sorry Cordovan (and no disrespect intended), but the evidence (admittedly, it's mostly anecdotal) says otherwise. I, myself, have noticed the drop rate differences and they're very pronounced. Clearly, I'm not the only one who's noticed this.

"but the evidence (admittedly, it's mostly anecdotal)"

Thread over.

Humans do not handle anecdotal judgment of statistics remotely well. Until you get a sample from EVERY player that reliably shows the same then you're just seeing what you are biased to see. For every person who got no drops for the first few weeks and was on the forums conspiring with theories, there were a dozen on the servers who don't go on the forums that probably got all the drops. Humans look for patterns, especially where there are none. :P

[jakeelala]

As someone that's been farming eNecro for a year, ransacking 4 characters a month then giving up in disgust til next month, and NEVER having seen an epic Chord of Reprisals.... It MUST be true!

Or I'm Wi-Flagged.

The fact that there's only one of you complaining about this, and not 10 or 20, shows the lack of understating of statistics and distribution, and anecdotal evidence that exists in DDO players.

Bad luck is not statistically relevant evidence.

[Kamode_Corebasher]

I'm sorry Cordovan (and no disrespect intended), but the evidence (admittedly, it's mostly anecdotal) says otherwise. I, myself, have noticed the drop rate differences and they're very pronounced. Clearly, I'm not the only one who's noticed this.

My experience is definitely this ^
...and don't get me wrong, I appreciate the extra drops that first week or three.
Maybe there's a hidden mechanic to the code that states to flood the community (each world) until each reaches 200 items delivered, then reduce to .05% chance to drop? idk, but it's definitely noticed by myself and was a topic of many conversations with guildies who have been on extended breaks (hoping they return).

[Hawkwier]

I'm sorry Cordovan (and no disrespect intended), but the evidence (admittedly, it's mostly anecdotal) says otherwise. I, myself, have noticed the drop rate differences and they're very pronounced. Clearly, I'm not the only one who's noticed this.

Well having pulled Sightless from DoJ last.week after running it 60 times or more when it first came out and getting nothing but 20ths, my anecdotal evidence suggests case closed!

[Spoonwelder]

It's time to stop this idiotically absurb mechanic that makes not ONE SINGLE NAMED ITEM drop for ANYONE in a raid after week 3.

Let alone newer content which seems to have the same RIDICULOUS change after week 3 or whatever stupid change to drop rates the developers do.


THERE SHOULD ALWAYS BE AT LEAST ONE GD PIECE OF NAMED GEAR FOR SOMEONE IN A PARTY OF 12 PEOPLE IN A RAID.

MAKE IT SO.

% drop rate for single character	% chance for 1 of 12 to get something	% Chance after 2 raids	% Chance after 3 raids	% Chance after 4 raids
1	11%	21%	30%	38%
2	22%	38%	52%	62%
3	31%	52%	67%	77%
4	39%	62%	77%	86%
5	46%	71%	84%	91%
6	52%	77%	89%	95%
7	58%	82%	93%	97%
8	63%	86%	95%	98%
9	68%	90%	97%	99%
10	72%	92%	98%	99%
11	75%	94%	98%	100%
12	78%	95%	99%	100%
13	81%	96%	99%	100%
14	84%	97%	100%	100%
15	86%	98%	100%	100%
16	88%	98%	100%	100%
17	89%	99%	100%	100%
18	91%	99%	100%	100%
19	92%	99%	100%	100%
20	93%	100%	100%	100%

Notes - if you are running on normal - the drop rate is either 1% or 3% depends on who you talk to (I'd lean to 3%) on elite it is usually around 8% so you can see that it is entirely reasonable for nothing to drop in your EN DOTJ runs for multiple runs.....Also the 100%s are actually 99.99xxxxx rounded up for simplicity.

[Spoonwelder]

An even more bitter pill to swallow - the probability of pulling something yourself.....again look at column 3/5/8 as those are the consensus % drop rates for N/H/E

	Probablility for single person to get something over a number of raids
	Drop Rate %
# of runs	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
1	1.00%	2.00%	3.00%	4.00%	5.00%	6.00%	7.00%	8.00%
2	1.99%	3.96%	5.91%	7.84%	9.75%	11.64%	13.51%	15.36%
3	2.97%	5.88%	8.73%	11.53%	14.26%	16.94%	19.56%	22.13%
4	3.94%	7.76%	11.47%	15.07%	18.55%	21.93%	25.19%	28.36%
5	4.90%	9.61%	14.13%	18.46%	22.62%	26.61%	30.43%	34.09%
6	5.85%	11.42%	16.70%	21.72%	26.49%	31.01%	35.30%	39.36%
7	6.79%	13.19%	19.20%	24.86%	30.17%	35.15%	39.83%	44.22%
8	7.73%	14.92%	21.63%	27.86%	33.66%	39.04%	44.04%	48.68%
9	8.65%	16.63%	23.98%	30.75%	36.98%	42.70%	47.96%	52.78%
10	9.56%	18.29%	26.26%	33.52%	40.13%	46.14%	51.60%	56.56%
11	10.47%	19.93%	28.47%	36.18%	43.12%	49.37%	54.99%	60.04%
12	11.36%	21.53%	30.62%	38.73%	45.96%	52.41%	58.14%	63.23%
13	12.25%	23.10%	32.70%	41.18%	48.67%	55.26%	61.07%	66.17%
14	13.13%	24.64%	34.72%	43.53%	51.23%	57.95%	63.80%	68.88%
15	13.99%	26.14%	36.67%	45.79%	53.67%	60.47%	66.33%	71.37%
16	14.85%	27.62%	38.57%	47.96%	55.99%	62.84%	68.69%	73.66%
17	15.71%	29.07%	40.42%	50.04%	58.19%	65.07%	70.88%	75.77%
18	16.55%	30.49%	42.20%	52.04%	60.28%	67.17%	72.92%	77.71%
19	17.38%	31.88%	43.94%	53.96%	62.26%	69.14%	74.81%	79.49%
20	18.21%	33.24%	45.62%	55.80%	64.15%	70.99%	76.58%	81.13%
21	19.03%	34.57%	47.25%	57.57%	65.94%	72.73%	78.22%	82.64%
22	19.84%	35.88%	48.83%	59.27%	67.65%	74.37%	79.74%	84.03%
23	20.64%	37.17%	50.37%	60.89%	69.26%	75.90%	81.16%	85.31%
24	21.43%	38.42%	51.86%	62.46%	70.80%	77.35%	82.48%	86.48%
25	22.22%	39.65%	53.30%	63.96%	72.26%	78.71%	83.70%	87.56%
26	23.00%	40.86%	54.70%	65.40%	73.65%	79.99%	84.84%	88.56%
27	23.77%	42.04%	56.06%	66.79%	74.97%	81.19%	85.91%	89.47%
28	24.53%	43.20%	57.38%	68.11%	76.22%	82.32%	86.89%	90.32%
29	25.28%	44.34%	58.66%	69.39%	77.41%	83.38%	87.81%	91.09%
30	26.03%	45.45%	59.90%	70.61%	78.54%	84.37%	88.66%	91.80%
31	26.77%	46.54%	61.10%	71.79%	79.61%	85.31%	89.46%	92.46%
32	27.50%	47.61%	62.27%	72.92%	80.63%	86.19%	90.19%	93.06%
33	28.23%	48.66%	63.40%	74.00%	81.60%	87.02%	90.88%	93.62%
34	28.94%	49.69%	64.50%	75.04%	82.52%	87.80%	91.52%	94.13%
35	29.66%	50.69%	65.56%	76.04%	83.39%	88.53%	92.11%	94.60%
36	30.36%	51.68%	66.60%	77.00%	84.22%	89.22%	92.67%	95.03%
37	31.06%	52.65%	67.60%	77.92%	85.01%	89.87%	93.18%	95.43%
38	31.74%	53.59%	68.57%	78.80%	85.76%	90.48%	93.66%	95.79%
39	32.43%	54.52%	69.51%	79.65%	86.47%	91.05%	94.10%	96.13%
40	33.10%	55.43%	70.43%	80.46%	87.15%	91.58%	94.51%	96.44%
41	33.77%	56.32%	71.32%	81.24%	87.79%	92.09%	94.90%	96.72%
42	34.43%	57.19%	72.18%	82.00%	88.40%	92.56%	95.25%	96.99%
43	35.09%	58.05%	73.01%	82.72%	88.98%	93.01%	95.59%	97.23%
44	35.74%	58.89%	73.82%	83.41%	89.53%	93.43%	95.90%	97.45%
45	36.38%	59.71%	74.61%	84.07%	90.06%	93.82%	96.18%	97.65%
46	37.02%	60.52%	75.37%	84.71%	90.55%	94.19%	96.45%	97.84%
47	37.65%	61.31%	76.11%	85.32%	91.03%	94.54%	96.70%	98.01%
48	38.27%	62.08%	76.82%	85.91%	91.47%	94.87%	96.93%	98.17%
49	38.89%	62.84%	77.52%	86.47%	91.90%	95.18%	97.14%	98.32%
50	39.50%	63.58%	78.19%	87.01%	92.31%	95.47%	97.34%	98.45%
51	40.10%	64.31%	78.85%	87.53%	92.69%	95.74%	97.53%	98.58%
52	40.70%	65.03%	79.48%	88.03%	93.06%	95.99%	97.70%	98.69%
53	41.30%	65.72%	80.10%	88.51%	93.40%	96.23%	97.86%	98.80%
54	41.88%	66.41%	80.69%	88.97%	93.73%	96.46%	98.01%	98.89%
55	42.46%	67.08%	81.27%	89.41%	94.05%	96.67%	98.15%	98.98%
56	43.04%	67.74%	81.84%	89.83%	94.34%	96.87%	98.28%	99.06%
57	43.61%	68.39%	82.38%	90.24%	94.63%	97.06%	98.40%	99.14%
58	44.17%	69.02%	82.91%	90.63%	94.90%	97.24%	98.51%	99.21%
59	44.73%	69.64%	83.42%	91.00%	95.15%	97.40%	98.62%	99.27%
60	45.28%	70.24%	83.92%	91.36%	95.39%	97.56%	98.71%	99.33%
61	45.83%	70.84%	84.40%	91.71%	95.62%	97.70%	98.80%	99.38%
62	46.37%	71.42%	84.87%	92.04%	95.84%	97.84%	98.89%	99.43%
63	46.91%	71.99%	85.32%	92.36%	96.05%	97.97%	98.97%	99.48%
64	47.44%	72.55%	85.76%	92.67%	96.25%	98.09%	99.04%	99.52%
65	47.97%	73.10%	86.19%	92.96%	96.44%	98.21%	99.11%	99.56%
66	48.49%	73.64%	86.61%	93.24%	96.61%	98.32%	99.17%	99.59%
67	49.00%	74.17%	87.01%	93.51%	96.78%	98.42%	99.23%	99.63%
68	49.51%	74.69%	87.40%	93.77%	96.94%	98.51%	99.28%	99.66%
69	50.02%	75.19%	87.77%	94.02%	97.10%	98.60%	99.33%	99.68%
70	50.52%	75.69%	88.14%	94.26%	97.24%	98.68%	99.38%	99.71%
71	51.01%	76.17%	88.50%	94.49%	97.38%	98.76%	99.42%	99.73%
72	51.50%	76.65%	88.84%	94.71%	97.51%	98.84%	99.46%	99.75%
73	51.99%	77.12%	89.18%	94.92%	97.64%	98.91%	99.50%	99.77%
74	52.47%	77.58%	89.50%	95.12%	97.75%	98.97%	99.53%	99.79%
75	52.94%	78.02%	89.82%	95.32%	97.87%	99.03%	99.57%	99.81%
76	53.41%	78.46%	90.12%	95.51%	97.97%	99.09%	99.60%	99.82%
77	53.88%	78.89%	90.42%	95.69%	98.07%	99.15%	99.63%	99.84%
78	54.34%	79.32%	90.71%	95.86%	98.17%	99.20%	99.65%	99.85%
79	54.80%	79.73%	90.98%	96.02%	98.26%	99.25%	99.68%	99.86%
80	55.25%	80.14%	91.26%	96.18%	98.35%	99.29%	99.70%	99.87%