Daily Dice 560 FREE silver Dice rolls

[moomooprincess]

This is three weeks worth of data.

1-25 Currency

150 times / 560 rolls = 26.79%. A little higher than the 25% expected, but close enough.

9 1s

150 occurrences
21 had astral shards with plat
From this I deduce that there is a approximate 15% chance to get astral shard(s) with platinum

1.....1010 plat
1.....1014 plat, 1 astral shard
1.....1027 plat
1.....1030 plat
1.....1037 plat
1.....1041 plat
1.....1041 plat
1.....1050 plat, 2 astral shards
1.....1059 plat
2.....1023 Plat
2.....1037 plat
2.....1062 plat, 1 astral shard
2.....1095 Plat
3.....1003 Plat
3.....1037 Plat
3.....1048 plat
3.....1051 plat
3.....1055 plat
3.....1063 plat
3.....1066 plat
3.....1071 plat
3.....1075 plat
3.....plat
4.....1022 plat
4.....1029 plat
4.....1045 plat
4.....1048 plat
4.....1052 plat
4.....1058 platinum
4.....1083 plat
4.....1084 plat
5.....1029 plat
5.....1044 Plat
5.....1048 plat
5.....1053 plat
5.....1062 plat, 2 astral shards
5.....1065 plat
5.....1082 plat
5.....1084 plat
6.....1014 plat, 1 astral shard
6.....1021 plat
6.....1050 plat, 1 astral shard
6.....991 plat, 2 astral shards
6.....995 plat
6.....997 plat
7.....1007 Plat
7.....1021 plat
7.....1032 plat
7.....1046 plat
7.....1052 platinum
7.....1060 plat
7.....1060 Plat
7.....1071 Plat
7.....1076 plat, 2 astral shards
8.....1020 plat, 1 astral shard
8.....1033 plat
8.....1053 plat
8.....1053 plat
8.....1057 plat
9.....1022 Plat
9.....1040 plat
9.....1047 plat
9.....1051 plat, 1 astral shard
9.....1052 platinum
10.....1016 plat
10.....1025 plat
10.....1027 plat
10.....1033 plat
10.....1045 Platinum
10.....1053 plat
10.....1054 plat
10.....1064 plat
11.....1049 Plat
11.....1052 platinum
11.....1054 plat
11.....1066 plat
11.....1074 plat, 2 astral shards
11.....1098 plat
12.....1017 plat
12.....1018 plat
12.....1063 Plat
12.....1070 plat
12.....plat
13.....1043 plat
13.....1061 plat
13.....1078 plat
14.....1030 plat
14.....1047 plat
14.....1053 plat
14.....1055 plat
14.....1063 plat
14.....1067 plat
14.....1068 plat
14.....1074 plat
14.....1082 plat, 2 astral shards
14.....1086 plat
14.....1098 plat
15.....1015 plat
15.....1036 plat, 2 astral shards
15.....1054 plat
16.....1044 plat
17.....1008 plat
17.....1019 plat
17.....1050 plat
17.....1054 Plat
17.....1056 plat
17.....1060 plat
17.....1060 plat, 1 Astral shard
17.....1081 plat, 1 astral shard
18.....1009 plat
18.....1020 plat, 1 astral shard
18.....1064 plat
18.....1071 plat
18.....1071 plat
18.....1090 plat
18.....999 Plat
19.....1021 plat, 1 astral shard
19.....1039 plat
19.....1048 plat
19.....1053 plat
19.....1064 plat
19.....1074 plat
19.....1083 plat
20.....1026 plat
20.....1047 plat
20.....1061 plat
21.....1023 plat
21.....1032 plat
21.....1051 plat, 1 astral shard
21.....1090 plat
22.....1019 plat
22.....1030 plat, 1 astral shard
22.....1048 plat
22.....1050 plat
22.....1064 plat
22.....1080 plat
22.....1081 plat
23.....1036 plat
23.....1064 plat
23.....1083 plat
24.....1024 plat, 1 astral shard
24.....1028 Plat
24.....1033 plat
24.....1039 plat
24.....1045 plat
24.....1058 platinum
24.....1071 plat
24.....999 plat
25.....1024 plat, 1 astral shard
25.....1056 plat

26-45 Collectables

113 rolls 560 rolls = 20.18%. Pretty darn close to the 20% expected.

14 rolls had astral shards. From this I will deduce there is a 10% chance to get astral shards with a collectable.
No Lightning Split Soarwoods, but one small eberron dragonshard

113 Occurences

26.....academic treatise
26.....Amulet of the Lost Empire, 3 Astral Shards
26.....blessed candle
26.....Powdered Blood, 110 Khyber Dragonshard Fragments
26.....Singed Soarwood
26.....Skull fragment, 116 siberys dragonshards
26.....Small Eberron Dragonshard
26.....String of Prayer Beads
26.....Tear of Vulkoor
27.....Blade of the Dark Six
27.....Blade of the Dark Six
27.....Cryptmoss Worm, 3 astral shards
27.....mystical formula
27.....Runic Parchment
27.....Sweet Whitecap
27.....Vial of Pure Water, 44 Siberys Dragonshard Fragments
28.....Amber Vial
28.....Amber Vial, 3 astral shards
28.....sweet whitecap
29.....Blade of the Dark Six
29.....Chipped Bone Talisman
29.....Cryptmoss, 2 astral shards
29.....Glittering Dust
29.....Glittering Dust, 46 Khyber Dragonshard Fragments
29.....intact spore pod
29.....String of Prayer Beads
29.....sweet whitecap
29.....Sweet Whitecap, 3 Astral Shards
30.....academic treatise
30.....Blade of the Dark Six
30.....Ivory Scorpion Icon
30.....Page Torn from a Research Notebook
30.....Ruddy Fungus
30.....string of prayer beads
30.....sweet whitecap
31.....Amber Vial, 46 Siberys Dragonshard Fragments
31.....Amulet of the Lost Empire
31.....Glittering Dust
31.....Phoenix Tavern Purchase Order
31.....Research Diary
31.....Small Wooden Idol
31.....Swaying Mushroom Spore
31.....Withered Cryptmoss
32.....Amber Vial
32.....mystical formula
33.....Academic Treatise
33.....Amber vial, 41 Khyber Dragonshard Fragments
33.....chipped bone talisman
33.....Sweet Whitecap
33.....Sweet Whitecap
33.....Sweet Whitecap, 3 Astral Shards
34.....academic treatise
34.....academic treatise
34.....Blessed Candle
34.....Duskbrood Trumpeter
34.....Fragrant Drowshood
34.....mystical formula
34.....Page Torn from a Research Notebook
34.....Swaying Mushroom Cluster
34.....Tome: History of Houses
34.....Wavecrasher Cargo Manifest
34.....withered cryptmoss
35.....Blessed Candle, 2 Astral Shards
35.....Cryptmoss Worm
35.....Intact Fingerbone
35.....Khyber Prayer Pamphlet
35.....Khyber Prayer Pamphlet
35.....Ruddy Fungus
35.....Swaying Mushroom Cluster, 3 Astral Shards
35.....Sweet Whitecap, 2 Astral Shards
36.....Amber Vial
36.....string of prayer beads
37.....Amulet of the Lost Empire
37.....Bruised Spore Pod
37.....Khyber Prayer Pamphlet
37.....Lush Cryptmoss
37.....Runic Parchment, 3 Astral Shards
37.....small wooden idol
37.....String of Prayer Beads
37.....Sweet Whitecap
38.....Amulet of the Lost Empire
38.....Cryptmoss, 2 astral shards
38.....Page Torn from a Research Notebook
38.....Page Torn Research Notebook, 2 Astral Shard
39.....Amber Vial
39.....Amulet of the Lost Empire
39.....chipped bone talisman
39.....String of Prayer Beads
39.....String of Prayer Beads
39.....Vial of Contagion, 2 astral shards
40.....silver bowl, 3 astral shards
41.....Blade of the Dark Six
41.....Ceramic Bowl
41.....chipped bone talisman
41.....Ivory Scorpion Icon
41.....Mystic Formula
41.....Three Astral Shards
42.....Bruised Spore Pod
42.....One Sweet Whitecap
42.....Powdered Blood, 110 Khyber Dragonshard Fragments
42.....Sweet Whitecap
42.....Vial of Pure Water
42.....Withered Cryptmoss
43.....Amber Vial
43.....Sour Darkcap
43.....Swaying Mushroom Cluster
43.....Tear of Vulkoor
44.....Mystical Formula
45.....blessed candle
45.....Khyber Prayer Pamphlet, 2 astral shards
45.....One Sweet Whitecap
45.....Page Torn from a Research Notebook
45.....Sour Darkcap


46-65 Crafting

119 rolls / 560 rolls = 21.25%. A little higher tha the 20% expected, but close enough.

Some weird stuff. You only can get 3, 4, or 5 greater essences of any type. If you get 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10 essences they are lesser

119 Occurences

51 rolls were greater essences
68 rolls were lesser essences

46.....4 Greater Evil Essences
46.....5 Greater Mind Essences
46.....6 Lesser Air Essences
46.....7 Lesser Evil Essences
46.....7 Lesser Law Essences
46.....9 Lesser Evil Essences
47.....10 Lesser Air Essences
47.....10 lesser chaos essences
47.....10 Lesser Mind Essences
47.....4 Greater Air Essences
47.....4 Greater Arcane Essences
47.....4 Greater Body Essences
47.....4 greater evil essences
47.....4 Greater Fire Essences
47.....4 Greater Good Essences
47.....5 greater divine essences
47.....5 Greater Law Essences
47.....6 lesser air essences
47.....6 Lesser Body Essences
48.....10 Lesser Chaos Essences
48.....4 Greater Divine Essences
48.....5 Greater Mind Essences
49.....4 Greater Air Essences
49.....4 Greater Good Essences
49.....5 Greater Chaos Essence
49.....5 greater divine essences
49.....6 lesser earth essences
50.....4 Greater Law Essences
50.....8 Lesser Evil Essences
50.....9 lesser evil essences
51.....3 greater arcane essences
51.....5 Greater Good Essences
51.....7 Lesser Law Essences
52.....4 greater evil essences
52.....5 Greater Air Essences
52.....5 Greater Earth Essences
52.....6 Lesser Water Essences
52.....8 Lesser Fire Essences
52.....9 Lesser Fire Essences
52.....9 Lesser Water Essences
53.....4 Greater Arcane Essences
53.....5 Greater Earth Essences
53.....5 Greater Water Essences
53.....7 lesser fire essence
53.....9 lesser law essences
54.....5 Greater Arcane Essecnes
54.....7 lesser water essences
54.....8 Lesser Divine Essences
54.....9 Lesser Arcane Essences
54.....9 Lesser Law Essences
55.....5 Greater Air Essences
55.....5 Greater Water Essences
55.....6 lesser evil essences
55.....7 Lesser Body Essences
55.....7 lesser divine essences
56.....10 Lesser Fire Essences
56.....4 Greater Air essences
56.....4 greater earth essences
56.....5 Greater Good Essences
56.....6 lesser air essences
56.....6 lesser Good Essences
56.....7 Lesser Body Essences
56.....7 Lesser Body Essences
56.....8 Lesser Divine Essences
56.....8 Lesser Mind Essences
56.....9 lesser law essences
57.....10 Lesser Mind Essences
57.....4 Greater Air essences
57.....5 Greater Earth Essences
57.....5 Greater Fire Essences
57.....5 Greater Fire Essences
57.....5 Greater Water Essences
57.....6 lesser evil essences
57.....6 Lesser Fire Essences
58.....4 Greater Divine Essences
58.....4 greater water essences
58.....5 Greater Chaos Essences
58.....5 greater evil essences
58.....6 lesser earth essences
59.....10 Lesser Body Essences
59.....4 greater water essences
59.....6 Lesser Air Essences
59.....8 Lesser Chaos Essences
59.....9 Lesser Water Essences
60.....10 Lesser Evil Essences
60.....4 Greater Body Essences
60.....5 Greater Evil Essences
60.....6 lsser fire essences
60.....7 lesser chaos Essences
60.....8 Lesser Evil Essences
60.....8 Lesser Law Essences
60.....9 lesser law essences
61.....10 Lesser Water Essences
61.....4 greater evil essences
61.....4 Greater Fire Essences
61.....5 Greater Water Essences
61.....9 Lesser Body Essences
61.....9 lesser law essences
61.....9 Lesser Water Essences
62.....6 lesser evil essences
62.....7 Lesser Body Essences
62.....7 lesser divine essences
62.....7 lesser fire essence
62.....7 Lesser Water Essences
62.....8 Lesser Arcane Essences
62.....8 Lesser Body Essences
63.....10 lesser Air Essences
63.....10 Lesser Body Essences
63.....6 lesser air essences
63.....9 Lesser Earth Essences
63.....9 lesser law essences
64.....4 Greater Arcane Essences
64.....4 greater evil essences
65.....10 Lesser Water Essences
65.....4 greater evil essences
65.....4 Greater Fire Essences
65.....4 Greater Good Essences
65.....6 lesser earth essences
65.....6 Lesser Water Essences


66-80 Consumables

67 rolls / 560 rolls = 11.96%. Much lower than the 15% expected, makes you go hmmmmmmmmm......


67 Occurrences

There are only FIVE consumable types.

Haste Potions either level 10 or level 15
Heroism Potions level 10 only
Concentrated Mnemonic Elixirs
Mnemonic Elixirs
Supreme Ability Elixirs


66.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonics
66.....3 Potions of Haste (10)
66.....3 Potions of Heroism (10)
66.....4 Potions of Heroism (10)
66.....Concentrated Elixir of Superior Mnemonic Enhancement
67.....2 lasting elixirs of Superior Ability
67.....3 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonic
67.....3 Potions of Haste (10)
67.....Concentrated Elixir of Greater Mnemonic
68.....2 Concetrated Elxirs of Lesser Mnemonic
68.....2 potions of Haste (10)
68.....3 Elixirs of Minor Mnemonic
68.....4 Potions of Haste (10)
68.....Concentatred Elixir of Lesser Mnemonic
69.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonics
69.....4 Potions of Haste (10)
70.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Lesser Mnemonics
70.....3 potions heroism (10)
70.....3 potions of Heroism (10)
70.....4 potions of heroism (10)
71.....3 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonic
71.....3 potions heroism (10)
71.....4 potions of haste
71.....Concentrated Superior Mnemonic Enhancement
72.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonics
72.....3 Concentrated Elixir of Minor Mnemonic
72.....3 potions of Heroism (10)
72.....3 Potions of Herosim (15)
72.....Concentrated Elixir of Superior Mnemonic Enhancement
72.....Potion of Haste (15)
73.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Lesser Mnemonics
73.....2 Minor Mnemonic Elixirs
73.....2 Potions of Heroism
73.....3 Concentrated Elixir of Minor Mnemonic
73.....4 potions of haste (10)
73.....4 Potions of Haste (10)
73.....4 potions of heroism (10)
73.....Concentrated Elixir of Greater Mnemonic
73.....potion of Heroism (15)
74.....2 Minor Mnemonic Elixirs
74.....2 potions of Haste (10)
74.....3 Potions of haste, 15th level
75.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonics
75.....4 Potions of Haste (10)
76.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonics
76.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Mnemonic
76.....2 potions of Haste (10)
76.....4 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonic
76.....4 potions heroism (10)
76.....4 potions of heroism (10)
76.....Concentrated Elixir of Major Mnemonic Enhancement
77.....3 Potions of haste, 15th level
77.....Concentrated Elixir of Major Mnemonic Enhancement
78.....2 potions of Haste (10)
78.....2 potions of Haste (10)
78.....3 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonic
78.....4 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonic
78.....Conc. Major Mnemonic Elixir
78.....Concentrated Elixir of Superior Mnemonic Enhancement
78.....Elixir of Greater Mnemonic
79.....2 Elixirs of Supreme Ability
79.....3 Concentrated Minor Mnemonic
79.....3 Potions of haste, 15th level
80.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonics
80.....2 Potions of Heroism (10)
80.....3 Concentrated Elixirs of Mnemonic
80.....4 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonic


81-90 Boosts

55 rolls / 560 rolls = 9.82%. A little lower than the 10% expected, but close enough.


55 Occurrences

There are nine different types of rewards.

Minor, Lesser Crafting Elixirs
Minor, Lesser XP Elixirs
Minor, Lesser Slayer Count Boosts
Minor, Lesser Guild Renown Boosts
Small Jewels of Fortune

81.....2 lesser crafting exp elixirs
81.....2 Minor Crafting XP Elixirs
81.....Lesser Crafting XP, 10%, 15 min
81.....Minor XP Elixir
81.....Small Jewel of Fortune
81.....Small Jewel of Fortune
82.....Lesser Guild renown
82.....Minor Exp Elixir
82.....minor exp elixir
82.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
82.....small jewel of fortune
82.....small jewel of fortune
83.....3 Lesser Crafting XP Elixirs
83.....lesser XP elixir
83.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
83.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
83.....Minor XP Elixir, 5%, 2 hours
83.....small jewel of fortune
84.....2 Minor Crafting XP Elixirs, 5%, 15 minutes
84.....3 Minor Crafting XP Elixirs, 5%, 15 minutes
84.....4 Minor Crafting XP Elixirs
84.....Lesser XP Elixir
84.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
84.....small jewel of fortune
84.....small jewel of fortune
85.....Lesser Guild Renown
85.....Lesser Slayer Count Boost
85.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
85.....small jewel of fortune
86.....3 Minor Crafting Xp Elixirs, 15 minutes, 5%
86.....Lesser XP Elixir
86.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
86.....minor XP Elixir
87.....Lesser Crafting Exp Elixir
87.....Lesser XP Elixir, 10% , 3 hours
87.....small jewel of fortune
87.....small jewel of fortune
88.....2 lesser crafting exp elixirs
88.....Lesser XP Elixir
88.....minor guild renown elixir
88.....minor guild renown elixir
88.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
88.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
88.....minor XP Elixir
89.....3 Lesser Crafting XP Elixirs
89.....Lesser Guild Renown
89.....Lesser Slayer Boost
89.....Minor XP Elixir
89.....small jewel of fortune
90.....Lesser Guild Renown
90.....Minor Experince Elixir
90.....minor guild renown elixir
90.....Minor XP Elixir
90.....Small Jewel of Fortune
90.....small jewel of fortune


91-95 Improved Boosts

21 occurrence / 560 rolls = 3.75% much less than the 5% expected. Is my guild just having bad luck?

So far, nine different types. My guess, if there is lesser, medium, and greater fpr XP, there is lesser, medium and greater for Crafting and Slaying. Please note, there is NO GUILD BOOST for this range. The data set is extremely small though, with 21 data items.


Medium, Greater Slayer Boosts
Greater, Major Crafting XP Elixir
Lesser, Medium, Greater XP elixir
Medium Jewel of Fortune
Large Jewel of Fortune

91.....Greater Slayer Boost
91.....Greater Crafting EXP Elixir
91.....Greater Crafting XP Elixir, 20%, 15 Minutes
91.....Medium Jewel of Fortune
91.....Medium Jewel of Fortune
92.....Greater Crafting Elixir
92.....Greater Crafting XP Elixir
92.....Large Jewel of Fortune
92.....medium XP Elixir
93.....Large Jewel of Fortune
93.....Lesser XP Elixir
93.....Medium Slayer Boost Count
94.....Greater Crafting XP Elixir, 20%, 15 Minutes
95.....Greater Crafting Experience
95.....Greater XP Elixir 20% 3 hours
95.....Lesser XP Elixir
95.....Lesser XP Elixir
95.....Major Crafting XP Elixir
95.....Medium Jewel of Fortune
95.....Medium Slayer Boost Count
95.....Medium Slayer Count Boost


96-99 Copper Jackpot



28 occurrence / 560 rolls = 5.00% much higher than the 4% expected. OK, I guess this makes up for the 91-95 rolls.

So far, seven different types.

15 astral Shards
Siberys Spirit Cake
Major Xp Elixir
Unbound +1 tomes
Raid timer Bypass Hourglasses
Rest Statue of Eladrin
Jewelers Toolkit

I can tell you that I am the one that rolled the Jewelers Tool Kit on Argonesson and I am the one that rolled all three of the Raid Timer Bypasses on Sarlona.

of those items the Siberys Spirit Cake and the Rest Statue I do not consider JACKPOT!!! +1 tomes are close to not being good, but if you have a low character on a server getting a FREE +1 tome is nice, especially, if you can score a +1 to +2 upgrade later on.

96.....15 Astral Shards
96.....15 Astral Shards
96.....Major XP Elixir
96.....Siberys Spirit Cake
96.....Siberys Spirit Cake
96.....Siberys Spirit Cake
96.....TOME +1 Constitution, unbound
97.....Major XP Elixir, 20%, 6 hours
97.....Raid Timer Bypass Hourglass
97.....Rest Statue of Eladrin
97.....Siberys Spirit Cake
97.....TOME +1 DEX, Unbound
98.....Jeweler's Tool Kit
98.....Raid Timer Bypass Hourglass
98.....Siberys Spirit Cake
98.....Siberys Spirit Cake
98.....Siberys Spirit Cake
98.....TOME +1 Charisma
98.....TOME +1 Int, unbound
99.....15 astral shards
99.....15 astral shards
99.....15 astral shards
99.....15 Astral Shards
99.....major XP elixir
99.....Major XP Elixir, 20%, 6 hours
99.....Raid Timer Bypass Hourglass
99.....Siberys Spirit Cake
99.....TOME +1 Constitution, unbound


100 Silver Jackpot

7 occurrences / 560 rolls = 1.25% Higher than the 1% expected.

Pretty easy to tell what the rewards are.


100.....Excellent XP Elixir, 30%, 3 hours
100.....Excellent XP Elixir, 30%, 3 hours
100.....Superior Experience Elixir, 30%, 6 hours
100.....TOME Upgrade +1 WIS to +2 WIS
100.....TOME Upgrade +1 CHA to +2 CHA
100.....TOME Upgrade +1 STR to +2 STR
100.....TOME Upgrade +1 STR to +2 STR

As an added bonus, what others have received when rolled, but these players are NOT in my guild. These rolls of 100 are not included in my 560 total as I would need all of their rolls to have reliable numbers.

100.....1 Excellent Experience Elixir, 30% 3 hours
100.....2 Raid Bypass Timers
100.....2 Raid Bypass Timers
100.....2 Raid Bypass Timers
100.....2 Raid Bypass Timers
100.....2 Superior XP Elixirs
100.....3 Siberys Spirit Cakes
100.....3 Siberys Spirit Cakes
100.....3 Siberys Spirit Cakes
100.....35 astral shards
100.....35 astral shards
100.....35 astral shards
100.....35 astral shards
100.....50 Astral Shards
100.....Lesser Heart of Wood
100.....Superior Experience Elixir
100.....Superior Experience Elixir
100.....Superior Experience Elixir, 30%, 6 hours
100.....Upgrade CHA +1 to +2
100.....Upgrade CON +2 to +3
100.....Upgrade STR +1 to +2
100.....Upgrade WIS +2 to +3


I also want to point out that not one of us has been able to duplicate the reported bug of having shards disappear or once we roll having the number remain at zero.

[Wanesa]

WOW! Great job!

I also want to point out that not one of us has been able to duplicate the reported bug of having shards disappear or once we roll having the number remain at zero.

It can really happen, i saw it with my own eyes. Probably it happens in less then 1 of 560 cases

[levesque2004]

i've not been able to replicate the bug either. but then, it's just me and my not-every-day rolls.

for a chi square test on the data to be reliable, we'd need n x 10 rolls, which in this case would be 1000 (since the die supposedly has 100 sides). and we'd need that amount mostly because the last entry is exactly 100, only.

that said, this is half that data, which is wonderful. thank you for gathering even that much. worst part of testing a pseudo rng is gathering the data, especially when you don't have access to the rng itself.

if anyone's interested, i'll post the chi square test later. if not, fine. it's ugly math, and a table lookup. y'all should be able to find it on the net. it's the standard test for pseudo random number generators, and real ones too (you know, those strange shaped plastic things we used to play dnd with?). btw, vegas uses it too, except on those plastic things, it's actually easier to use a vice on those.

oo, look what i found. http://graphpad.com/quickcalcs/chisquared1.cfm gonna try it with your data.

[levesque2004]

that was fun. didn't do the "one line for each number possible" table, the website is kinda clugy when it comes to tables with more than 20 rows. but:

Chi squared equals 8.119 with 7 degrees of freedom.
The two-tailed P value equals 0.3222
By conventional criteria, this difference is considered to be not statistically significant.

with our a. incomplete data and b. not doing every different result as a row, it looks ok. test'd be better with the a and b handled, but it's probably around 10% error or so as is (yeah, i'm guessing on that, but hey... that math is UGLY!). cool.

[Kinerd]

Very good work on data collection, +1.

I would like to offer a recommendation on statistics. There is a quantitative, objective, and (crucially) brief way to determine "close enough", and it goes like this:

variance due to random noise is defined as (1 - rate) * rate * trials
standard deviation is defined as square root(variance)
within 2 standard deviations is close enough (95% of trials will fall in that band, 1 in 20 will not)
within 3 standard deviations is being very serious (99.7% of trials will fall in that band, 1 in 300+ will not)
empirical results are therefore usually reported (by nerds) as "observed value plus or minus value of 2 SDs", or of the form "25% ± 6%"
(note how this is dramatically easier to compute than chi squared or other statistical tests, just don't apply it to jelly beans)

We have:

150 of 560 (astral 21 of 150), should be 25%
113 of 560 (astral 14 of 113), should be 20%
119 of 560, should be 20%
67 of 560, should be 15%
55 of 560, should be 10%
21 of 560, should be 5%
28 of 560, should be 4%
7 of 560, should be 1%

If we are bossy and insist on ±s, our results are reported as:

26.8% ± 3.7% (14.0% ± 5.7%)
20.2% ± 3.4% (12.4% ± 6.2%)
21.3% ± 3.5%
12.0% ± 2.7% [!]
9.8% ± 2.5%
3.8% ± 1.6%
5.0% ± 1.8%
1.3% ± 0.9%

All the empirically observed values fall within 2 standard deviations of (and are therefore statistically indistinguishable from) the predicted values except for category 4, which falls between 2 and 3. As the above xkcd reference indicates, this methodology does not (ever) provide incontrovertible evidence, and it is not terribly surprising to have one of eight fall outside of a one in twenty. The answer is always more data.

Also worth pointing out is that the astral shard chances for categories 1 and 2 could each fit 15% or 10%.

[KongColeus]

Very good work on data collection, +1.

I would like to offer a recommendation on statistics. There is a quantitative, objective, and (crucially) brief way to determine "close enough", and it goes like this:


...

For me, using the two words CLOSE ENOUGH was much briefer than what you said.