On the economics of Large Devil Scales . . .

[KingOfCheese]

Disclaimer - I am not an economist. But I am a geek that likes to think about such things.

I got to wondering over the weekend about the future value of Larges with the new mod coming out and lvl 25 in our future.

My guess (just a guess) is that the new mod will deliver weapon options to us that are significantly superior to green steel weapons and provide alternatives (and perhaps superior) options to hp and sp Shroud items. Eventually, one would have to imagine that a lvl 17 raid won't be the perpetual source of the near-best items in the game.

If that guess is true, that means greensteels will become a nice-to-have, but not "must haves" - they will be highly valued for TR'ing, but no longer end game (I am also guessing that the superior items will have a much higher min lvl requirement).

So . . .

If greensteel items are no longer end-game items, that would mean the value of ingredients may drop as demand for them goes down.

But . . .

That also likely means people will stop running the shroud as much. And supply will drop dramatically. Which means the value would go up.

But . . .

If the supply drops too much, the culture might shift to crafted items as the twink gear for TR'ing and mid levels - making them essentially worthless (although the sp and hps items seem like they will retain value - but then again, it's not to difficult to powerlevel through 12-18 without that gear).

For those that bank Larges as currency, should they convert to something else? Or hang on to the asset?

Larges have been currency for a long, long time. If they were to lose their currency value, what will replace them?

All speculation is welcome.

[Grailhawk]

My guess (just a guess) is that the new mod will deliver weapon options to us that are significantly superior to green steel weapons and provide alternatives (and perhaps superior) options to hp and sp Shroud items. Eventually, one would have to imagine that a lvl 17 raid won't be the perpetual source of the near-best items in the game.

I understand that this is a guess on your part but I have to say I think its wrong. Traditionally DDO doesn't invalidate gear like other MMO's.

An example of that is the difference between LOB weapons and Shroud weapons. The difference between a T3 Alchemical weapon is so marginal compared to a Green Steel weapon that most people don't even think there better (in some cases there probably not even). Personally I like that about DDO.

Finally, at least with weapons they just put out a weapons raid I don't see them adding a new one any time soon.

[cdr]

We already have epic weapons/gear that are better than GS in most circumstances. Especially the weapons.

GS only really shines for leveling, and it will continue to do so. The value of LDS is largely driven IMO by people who want GS for TRs.

On both of my melees I have several GS weapons, none of which see use at 20. My tank's +45 HP item doesn't see much use at 20, though the +6 cha skills item does.

[Monkey-Boy]

We saw our melee DPS rising from other "stuff" that came out after green steel. This was a good thing on Turbine's part, keep our weapons relevant so nobody gets annoyed that stuff they grinded out for years isn't trash while still finding ways to keep make characters more powerful.

A pair of lightning II Khopeshes at level 20 is pretty good, but a pair of light IIs with dual TOD sets and Claw set (plus epic Marilith Chain or redscale) is stellar.

Alchemicals are a situational marginal improvement, so marginal many don't bother.

I don't think Turbine will make GS irrelevant. I'm actually more concerned my Epic Gloves of the claw will find a home in my TR-bank next to my Epic Spectrals

My wild speculation: the boost in power we'll get from level 21-25 will mostly be in the classes themselves. The Feats and enhancements will have the bulk of our power increase. Sure there will be new shiny baubles, but Turbine doesn't historically make all your gear irrelevant every update.

[Cam_Neely]

But . . .
But . . .
All speculation is welcome.

“The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.”
― Friedrich von Hayek

If anyone who tells you they can project what a policy (in this case an expansion) will do to the market is actually making a suggestion to you to get a good pair of rubber boots, cause you are going to be stepping in it.

[HernandoCortez]

Omg! Doooooooom!

[Purgatory]

Uncertainty in the market should for the most part drive prices down for larges. I would predict based on past performance that there will be more of those that are going to try and unload their supply into the market in hopes for exhange of a more stable currency. There are those that are willing to take the risk and invest into larges at the discounted price caused by this uncertainty in hopes to cash in when the price restablelizes after the expansion.

Only time will tell.

Best solution to this problem is the same sound advice given to any invester about maintianing a Investment plan.

Diversity

[...v...]

They still have value because GS items are lvl 12 and of your'e lucky you got some that are level 8. To a TR at lvl 12 GS are the best thing so I don't see them going anywhere, but nice try.

[Purgatory]

lucky you got some that are level 8.

The old level 8 greensteal that are impossible to craft have no baring on the market value of larges and never will.

[...v...]

The old level 8 greensteal that are impossible to craft have no baring on the market value of larges and never will.

I really didn't want to respond to this but the topic was GS being valuable to TRs. I clearly said, if your'e lucky you have level 8 GS items nowhere in their was that you can still make them. And GS items are still valuable since they are lvl 12, I really hate repeating myself. LDS will still have their value since GS items are lvl 12 and epic items are 20 which I also said.........

[Bacab]

I would convert my Devil Scale into Maelstroms...

Or Prayer Beads.

Though in a similar token...

Look what happened to Tome Pages and Shield Fragments. Those have been floored. Curiously enough, it has not happened to Blue Dragonscales...yet.

I am curious also about what will happen to the "Value" of larges. Maybe it will become the whole "run shroud if you want to craft things...stop running it if you are set".

TBH, I have started focusing on only one toon and TRing a ton. This being the case, I have quit running most raids (shroud included) and my gaming experience has actually improved. No more having someone be the 12th to join and then saying "ship buffs" and "Oh you doing Hound? I don't know how to get there." (as we are waiting at the quest entrance).

[Purgatory]

[QUOTE=...v...;4399542]I really didn't want to respond to this but the topic was GS being valuable to TRs.QUOTE]

I dont think you have taken the time to read the op or your understanding of what is being discusess is a bit off. The topic is about the in game economics of the relative value of larges as a whole and the impact the expansion may have on it. No one is claiming that Larges will not have any value after the expansion compared to there usfulness of lvl 11 and 12 greensteal items to TR's. What is being discussed is there relative value after the expansion.

[Zyerz]

I wish they cost less and dropped a bit more. I've only gotten 1 (which I got in my past life) and I've done 8 completions on this toon on this life. I have enough bones, shrapnels, and stones to almost make my weps, but I need 9 large devil scales and with no plat even near enough to even buy one. I've been running pure completions. I always seem to get a large at the end chest.
Theres also something incredibly ironic about my present situation. On these 8 completions (only ran one non completion) I got power shards like no one else. I got two supremes on my first run through, and the next runs got one as well. I offered people to roll for them. But its funny how I got so many of those and just one LDS. I got at least some 6 or 7 supreme shards. Massive luck streak I guess.

[LOOON375]

To me, they already had ZERO monetary value since they are so fricken easy to farm. For that reason alone, I don't see how anyone could pay such high prices for them as they sit.

Lately, I have been going through more L shrapnel.

And since I got into running Epics a few months back, I rarely run shroud anymore.

However, I believe that the Shroud will continue to remain relevant regardless of what content we see in the future.

[Astars]

I think at the start of the new expansion (or whenever the final new items are available in Lama land) many ppl will have to reshuffle their items (some uber shiny new caster goggles would invalidate the gear setup of many casters with con opp goggles). this will lead to a short (1-2 month) wave of gs crafting. My prediction is therefore:
1. shortly before and after the launch prices for large scales and stones will go up, due to increased demand
2. after the first round of item reshuffling (e.g. con opp items getting shifted to boots slot, striding assigned to quiver) prices will go down (until the FR challenges get launched and the same thing repeats again on a smaller scale)

Thats my 2 c

Cheers

Ast

[FrancisP.Fancypants]

Traditionally DDO doesn't invalidate gear like other MMO's.

*coughvorpalsandheavypickscough*



[I would've added that the TWF nerf further killed the use of non-khopesh weapons (d.axes, maces, etc.) in those builds, but I thought that might kill the subtlety]

[KingOfCheese]

I think at the start of the new expansion (or whenever the final new items are available in Lama land) many ppl will have to reshuffle their items (some uber shiny new caster goggles would invalidate the gear setup of many casters with con opp goggles). this will lead to a short (1-2 month) wave of gs crafting. My prediction is therefore:
1. shortly before and after the launch prices for large scales and stones will go up, due to increased demand
2. after the first round of item reshuffling (e.g. con opp items getting shifted to boots slot, striding assigned to quiver) prices will go down (until the FR challenges get launched and the same thing repeats again on a smaller scale)

Thats my 2 c

Cheers

Ast

That sounds like an accurate prediction to me (oh the pain - most of my sp items are on goggles - I'd have to re-do a half dozen of them).

[goodspeed]

I wouldn't ever count on anything ever being much grander then a gs. Look at the arti content. Look at the sheer long annoyance it is to find your alchy blank, then farm the various difficulties to get all the **** for it, and after you've completed it, look at it. It's on par with a weapon from years ago. Heck a crafted weapon is on par or exceeds it in situations.

The goofy challenges that are rarely run (least on my server) are on par. Are ya picking up on the pattern here? Look at the new epic weapons. Wanna get even sadder, the esos is still one of the best 2 handers. When deadly worked their was no comparison.

So until somehow we get these insane amazing 4d weapons with like a 17 to 20 base multiplier I still think GS/crafting will be the norm. Or challenges as you save the tokens and solo the quests for ingredients.

What I have noticed that used to be a main item but is dropping in price are red scales. Used to be they were upwards of 1.5 mill. Now they're about 650 to 700k on a top trade.

[Chai]

How many people TR alot -vs- stay at cap level to raid alot?

The answer to this question will have an impact on what happens to the value of larges in the game economy.

Seems to me like the idea of having a completionist on the account is getting more popular, as well as building melee with multiple past lives. Having ML 11 clothing items and ML 12 weapons as powerful as greensteel certainly helps with the XP grind of multiple past lives.

The shrouds staying power is not solely based on if new weapons from new content will be better. Its based on their ML as well, which will likely be cap level or close to it. Its also based on new weapons ease of acquisition.

[LordMond63]

Let's also bear in mind that, at some point, we will have the ability to deconstruct GS items, with the result that some might be lucky enough to get a large scale back from that process.

I can't see GS being rendered entirely irrelevant. As has been pointed out by others, the weapons made are level 12 and I don't know of many items that are more powerful than Lit 2 weapons on level 12 characters. For people who TR, they'll continue to be excellent twink items. No, they aren't nearly as powerful as Epic items....but nor are they as difficult to acquire (I think that I have completed ten or so various epic quests- not a large smaple I grant- but I've not received a single scroll nor seal and only 1 shard) and quanitity (or, in thios case, comparative ease of acquisition) has a quality all its own.

Shroud is still perhaps the best "training raid" in the game for casual players. Chronoscope is good, but I hardly ever see it being run at level for xp- though I do see it being run a >ton< by high levels for the loot and/or favor. Tempest Spine is sort of a "rite of passage"- great xp and favor, lousy loot. Does anyone run Abbot anymore? But Shroud hits all three marks: xp, favor and loot. It is many player's introduction to end game content and its challenges and it teaches you, especially on Hard and Elite, to work together for a common goal and isn't very forgiving of mistakes (or excessive lag).

LDS themselves are just common enough that they can serve as end-game currency. The raid in which they drop is popular and their drop rate isn't so poor that you have little to no hope of seeing one drop with your name on it.
I've no doubt that, as desirable end-game equipment, GS will be supplanted by new post-level 20 drops (if, in fact, it has not already been eclipsed by alchemical items).

All speculation on my part, obviously. But guessing is part of the fun.