Vale rares not dropping ingredients

[kaipan]

I am starting to think that there was some change in the Rares' chests in the Vale of Twilight.

Between 2 of my characters, it's now 43 (yes FORTYTHREE) chests IN A ROW I open without finding any ingredients.

Did they change the drop rate drastically to something like 1%?

Because I recall with my other characters months ago getting like, 1 ing out of 3 chests approximately.

Thanks, it's gonna from "unlucky" to "incredibly unlucky" to "***!?" to "ok there's some bug about it".

[somenewnoob]

I've been runnign around recently trying to grab one more husk and just hitting the three close to the entrance, elemental, bat swarm, that devil and friends near the shrine.

I've found plenty of lily petals, but not husks yet. So they are dropping, at least in thsoe 3 rare chests.

[kaipan]

I've been runnign around recently trying to grab one more husk and just hitting the three close to the entrance, elemental, bat swarm, that devil and friends near the shrine.

I've found plenty of lily petals, but not husks yet. So they are dropping, at least in thsoe 3 rare chests.

Any idea of the drop rates though?

Because if it is like 10%, then missing 43 of them is 1% (0.9^43), which is horribly unlucky but still not ungodly.

If it is 30%, then it becomes 0.00002%, which is pretty beyond any form of plausibility.

[somenewnoob]

Any idea of the drop rates though?

Because if it is like 10%, then missing 43 of them is 1% (0.9^43), which is horribly unlucky but still not ungodly.

If it is 30%, then it becomes 0.00002%, which is pretty beyond any form of plausibility.

Both of those would be exceptionally BAD. VERY BAD. I've made maybe 10 ish runs of those 3, maybe around 12-15 chests, and found 3 petals I think.

43 chests and nothing is getting to be holy wt f bad for sure!

[kaipan]

p.s. 44 in a row now.

[Galeria]

Since every good change seems to have an equal and opposite bad change, it is possible they decreased ingredient drop rates in Vale rares since they now are offered as end rewards for Shroud.

Just a theory.

[somenewnoob]

Since every good change seems to have an equal and opposite bad change, it is possible they decreased ingredient drop rates in Vale rares since they now are offered as end rewards for Shroud.

Just a theory.

It's possible, but unless I was getting lucky mine were all post patch.

[Zzevel]

My question is why do they only drop Husks and Pettals, they should drop any GS item, findin a Funk ou tthere would be like winning the lottery! I picked up 4 pettals and a Husk last weekend doing slayers so they are both still dropping

[somenewnoob]

My question is why do they only drop Husks and Pettals, they should drop any GS item, findin a Funk ou tthere would be like winning the lottery!

/signed like a mf on that!

[brian14]

My question is why do they only drop Husks and Pettals, they should drop any GS item, findin a Funk ou tthere would be like winning the lottery! I picked up 4 pettals and a Husk last weekend doing slayers so they are both still dropping

Funk, pebble and twigs all drop is two quests each. Husk and petals drop in one quest each (Sleeping Dust and Rituial Sacrifice, respectively), and in vale. At least that's how it always was before.

[smallstones]

Sounds like bad luck to me.

I would love to see the vale chests drop other Ings as well, or at least petals/husk removed from quests if certain Ing are only going to be quest available. I really hate running Ritual Sacrifice just to pull a petal (have 25 of them now).

[fuzzy1guy]

Just bad luck.

I've had no end of husks and lillys come out of the vale rares. Done it since the last patch too.

Change your party size and players. Try again.

Solo rares is very hit or miss.

[jwdaniels]

And if it is 10%, you can go 45 in a row without and then 5 in a row with and still be right on point...

[Uska]

you have been unlucky have pulled 6 husksin the last 2 days wish you could get pebbles though

[somenewnoob]

And since your luck is so bad, remember to let us know your toons name so we can avoid you for a few days at least........

[kaipan]

Honestly, given the drop rate you're talking about, I find it very unlikely that I was simply unlucky... we're talking 1 in a 500'000 chances here... -.-

[smallstones]

Honestly, given the drop rate you're talking about, I find it very unlikely that I was simply unlucky... we're talking 1 in a 500'000 chances here... -.-

Yeah, but with a game like this, someone is gonna pull that number.

Statistical Improbabilities they may be, but given enough time and a large enough sample size, they will happen.

(just look at the early festivalt where the odds of getting a +4 unbound tome where so low, even the devs where happy when 1 person got one)

[MsEricka]

Your math is incorrect.

IF the odds of getting an ingredient are 10%, then it maintains that 10% chance.

Whether you go in a million times or once, it's still 10%. That 10% is not multiplicative or additive, it is a static chance per chest (or maybe instance?).

I used 10% because that's what you quoted. I also doubt that it is that high. More like 2-3% or even lower.

[FastTaco]

Your math is incorrect.

IF the odds of getting an ingredient are 10%, then it maintains that 10% chance.

Whether you go in a million times or once, it's still 10%. That 10% is not multiplicative or additive, it is a static chance per chest (or maybe instance?).

I used 10% because that's what you quoted. I also doubt that it is that high. More like 2-3% or even lower.

Calculating probability over several attempts is a valid way to look at something like this... of course we don't have a accurate % drop rate required to calculate it.

[Jaid314]

darn. sounds like my chance to wait 10 years (for the existing supply to run out) then sell my husks and lily petals for multiple flawless red dragon scales each is not gonna happen.