Sarlona PUGs dying?

[Postumus]

Seen a lot of threads about the state of PUGs on various servers. Usually there is some back and forth about whether the PUGs have decreased, but its almost always anecdotal data.

When I started playing over a year ago, and up to about six months or so ago, there were ALWAYS at 3-4 PUGs going in the level range of whatever character I was playing at that moment not including the ubiquitous "1-20 for favor" LFMs.

Now it just gets more and more depressing. There are times I'm on with a L12 Fvs or L11 Bard and not a single PUG is being run at that level. Even during fairly prime time hours, 8pm EST-10PM EST, it's hard to find a PUG that's both in my level range and not a favor run. After 3AM EST? Forget it. Ghost town. Gou Ren or go home... if you're lucky.

In an effort to provide actual data to see if there really is a downward trend, or if this is just a blip (season, competing products, whatever), I'm going to post how many LFMs there actually are when I'm on.

At 8PM EST 12/8/11 when I logged on there were only 21 LFMs listed.

Currently, at 3:30 AM EST 12/9/11, there are a whopping 10 (TEN) LFMs.

[MsEricka]

Nothing has changed. There are still the same amount of LFM's now as there was 6 months ago as there was a year ago. LFM's come and go, wait a while and there could be 5 LFM's at your level.

However one issue I am noticing is players not capable of running elite quests trying to run them on elite for the bravery bonus. I've also seen a lot of LFM's waiting for an opener for an excessively long time. They could have run the quest 5 times in the time they waited.

[Unreliable]

Yeah not only do I see fewer PuGs up but people dont seem to be joining groups as quickly. Even just looking at other groups everything seems to be filling a lot slower.

Either that or more people on the server dont like me anymore, both of which are possibilties.

[Postumus]

Nothing has changed. There are still the same amount of LFM's now as there was 6 months ago as there was a year ago. LFM's come and go, wait a while and there could be 5 LFM's at your level.

You are absolutely wrong. So wrong it's shocking really. And that's one reason I'm going to track data of what I'm actually seeing for a while, not just report what I think I see.

Your more than welcome to post what you're actually seeing on Sarlona. In fact, I hope you do because the real numbers are just depressing.

Over the course of the last hour there were only 10-16 LFMs up at any given time (and an average of about 12-13), and only TWO of the lfms were in the L12 range that weren't L1-20 loot/favor runs. TWO. In an HOUR. I know because I left the LFM panel up the entire time I was playing.

Yeah it's late at night, but it was definitely NOT like this six months ago. Last night I was on even earlier and there were ZERO LFMs in the L12 range. For nearly 30 minutes nothing above L11 or below L14.

And the other poster noted, LFMs also seem to take longer to fill than before. Now when I post LFMs they take up to three or four times as long to fill as they used to. And these days "fill" seems to mean four players and a hireling.

[MaximumCharisma]

There are certainly less pugs for much of the content. Does that mean Sarlona is dying? Really don't think so. Many many people don't like to lead groups. Others who would lead fill groups via friends list, guild, channel etc.

Really numerous factors have affected pugging. It's just not very time effective to run one. I mean many players insist on Bravery Bonus even though they are ill-equipped/experienced to make it worth my time to join them during leveling. I have been leveling Komat, my now 16 barb (semi undergeared first lifer) and I find it easier to Solo with a hire (tempys FTW) than to pug most stuff.

But ya lvling LFM's have been dreadful for him. Its like the LFM panel has 8 LFM's from 1-6, 5 for 18-20 and 2-3 for all lvls between. I play 1 hour ahead of east time, varying times but rarely past 1 am east.

as to the idea that PUG's are the same as they were 6 months ago...the number of PUG's may very well be the same as then (don't know because I have no evidence for that) but the type of PUG has changed radically from then till now.

[Sarisa]

A large part of the lower number of LFM's would be competition for time from other things. Skyrim, SWOTR, D3 soon, and probably others drawing people (temporarily?) away. Holiday time of year, along with all the other baggage (Christmas parties, shopping, planning, etc, etc, etc). For those still in college, it's nearing finals time.

Then you have a larger number of channel/private runs as compared to before when more was PUG'ed.

Aside from the very peak times, like US evenings on the weekends, and say 8-10PM Eastern, and peak Chinese time; it definitely does seem like there is less available on the LFM list.

I'll reserve judgement whether it's a permanent reduction or just temporary until mid January or so.

[Hellllboy]

Sarlona is a very seasoned server and a majority of the population is already involved in either Channels or Guilds with people they enjoy running with.

This is why LFM's do not represent the population of the server.

[achitophel]

I think there are a lack of ads for these reasons:

1. It is quite easy to solo, albeit a little slower than grouping.
2. There are pugs, its just that they are vet pug groups and you need to be one of the cool kids to get in.
3. It is sometimes easier to run an elite quest with a couple of good players rather than a full group of bad players.
4. There really aren't many healers at the moment, so those players who can self heal don't put an ad for players that can't self heal.

Remember, that many vets will think that a death in the group is like drinking an xp pot.

[Cyr]

Sarlona is a very seasoned server and a majority of the population is already involved in either Channels or Guilds with people they enjoy running with.

This is why LFM's do not represent the population of the server.

Yes, but only if you take the LFM screen to represent the total population and not as a sliding snapshot of the trendline of the population. In other words you can't estimate the size of the population very well by they LFM screen, but you can estimate if it is going up or down over time by looking at it over time.

It would fail in this regard if the ratio of runs being run in non-LFM to LFM runs changed by more then the change you were looking at in the LFM screen. I could certainly see a case being made for modest changes in the ratio, but in the past year I just do not buy in any way shape or form that the ratio changed by a dramtic percentage.

That said, the better method of judging population would be the who screen over time.

The LFM screen over time is the best method of judging pug health in the game though which does seem to be the basic idea of what the OP is trying to capture.

[Cyr]

At 8PM EST 12/8/11 when I logged on there were only 21 LFMs listed.

Currently, at 3:30 AM EST 12/9/11, there are a whopping 10 (TEN) LFMs.

OP please be sure to keep relatively close time of day measurements when you do this as it will help with the validity of your measurements.

[Jaid314]

there do seem to be fewer pugs. it's terrible. i've actually had to post my own sometimes! a horrible, traumatizing experience!

that said, seems like there's still just as many people around, and it definitely hasn't been taking longer to fill ime (as a general rule). i mean, the level 5-9 deleras i joined the other day took a while to fill, but that's probably because it was level range 5-9 and nobody wanted to touch it...

but anyways, perhaps the reason i'm not finding it take long to fill is modified by a few things.

1) i'm pretty confident that if need be, i can take things a bit slower and solo the quests i've been running anyways.
2) i don't wait for a healer at low levels. a healer is nice, but not required, i can pot-heal if needed.
3) i am on a rogue, and many of the LFMs i've set up or joined have been for quests with a lot of traps.

overall though, i figure there's just as many people, just not as many leaders willing to take on unknowns.

[Miow]

I have to say some times of the day def has much less pugs than they used to, but i saw three shrouds up last night(at the same time!) that was surprising and since they fixed the seal drop on ereaver there are more of them too.

[Zenako]

Significant factors in the prevalence or lack thereof of LFM's going up. (Not in any specific order.)

1. Bravery Bonus, most vets know that bringing in other unknown people into a quest, especially on Elite, raises the chance of both death and even failing the quest. This behavior was predicted and seems to be coming true.

2. Many of the new quests are very soloable and as such, that will draw away a segment of the playerbase that might otherwise have been joining LFM's. With fewer players joining, it takes longer to fill and thus further discourages people from posting them in the first place.

3. Sarlona has a fairly mature player base and as such tends to wax and wane as the season and out of game activities present them selves.

4. Guilds are all hitting their guild cap now (the natural level where they stall out in progress) and as they see that they are taking steps to be sure to maintain it.

5. The classic lack of players willing to be healing punching bags. Those who are able, tend to stick with friends who give them less pain (still might get grief, but not to the pain...) Without healers available and joining (see #2 above) fewer people get inclined to post an LFM and hope they get a healer. (Side note, a pure healbot solos about as well as Coyle does, while a pure Cleric can solo with the best of them. Clerics don't need groups, healbots do.)

6. Perception. You are looking for a specific subset of quests types to play in. When those match your needs, everything is fine, plenty of choices, but when your needs shift and the postings don't then the offerings appear to be lacking.

7. Guild and private channels. I once stood outside the Shroud entrance and watched group after group go in, all the while there was no LFM on the boards. Had to be over a dozen full groups went by in perhaps 30 minutes. (I was killing time on the AH out there). So player activity is only loosely correlated with LFM posting activity. The most quests and raids in the game where player skill and experience becomes more important the less likely one is to find postings looking for warm bodies.

8. The ever present classic retort, well have you posted any LFM's yourself? If you are not, then you too are part of the problem that you are commenting on.

[HGM-Chi]

Nothing has changed. There are still the same amount of LFM's now as there was 6 months ago as there was a year ago. LFM's come and go, wait a while and there could be 5 LFM's at your level.

I have to back the OP here. This is just plain wrong. I play consistently between the hours of 8pm pacific and 2am pacific. Over the last several months the total number of LFMs up through that time has steadily, and noticably dropped. On two seperate occasions in the last 4 weeks I've seen no LFMs up at all, and on far too many occasions to count I've seen between 2 and 6 LFMs up at a time. This is across all level ranges. My experience previous to these last few months is that of having to scroll through available LFMs at any time of day I've been on.

I'm not inclined to think this spells doom for DDO, yet though. I think the reasons are varied, Skyrim, university finals, holiday season, and a poor update (the challenges stuff is rubbish in my opinion, and I think didn't generate the interest in most they thought it might). I'll be very interested to see what's happening come mid January.

[Tobril]

I seem to recall that the mid-levels have always been a “dead zone”.

It would be OK, however, to actually track the LFM trends.

If you want the situation to change you are going to have to do something
about it. I hear it actually works out sometimes.

[AZgreentea]

I think pugs have declined for these reasons:

1. New and very popular games came out, so there are slightly fewer players (temporary or permanent is up for debate).
2. Its the holiday season. Many people travel, work extra jobs (or students get jobs), spend time shopping, and generally spend more time IRL this time of year. Thats why DDO has some of its biggest sales this time of year, to entice people to play.
3. The Bravery System has encouraged more guild, solo, and static group play. The LFM is now filled with quests on Hard and Elite, with players being unwilling to run a Hard pug so they dont break their Elite streak (or vise versa), or avoiding pugs altogether for fear of a fail and being blamed for it, OR seeing the players attempting to run an Elite quest and avoiding "a waste of their time." (Personally, the last two ring true of my new pug experience. WW on Elite with a bunch of lvl 2 and 3's with the healer being a lvl 2 cleric is NOT appealing).
4. The least reason is the /ragequit. Some of the players who /ragequit over Atrie have not yet returned because of reason #1. They will be back eventually, but probably next month.

[Chai]

Taking one snapshot from one specific point in time per night doesnt measure the LFM raise / decline.

In order to make this type of claim youd need to be specific.

How many total LFMs per night between the hours of 6pm and 10pm for instance.

It doesnt work for: I got off work and log and count once right after I log in. I see lower number than I saw a month ago. ZOMG PUGs are dying!!!!

I also have been seeing no issues with the ability to put up an LFM and get 5 / 11 joiners regularly. I do play in the AM hours as well sometimes, depending on night of the week.

[Darkrok]

There are far less Pugs than there used to be. When I can be bothered to post a group I have no trouble filling it though. Pretty much ever. Even at weird hours.

I think a lot of the posters have nailed this. Server pop's probably down a bit simply due to Skyrim breaks, holidays, etc. More importantly though is that what can be solo'd/shortmanned is being solo'd/shortmanned. What can't is being run in guild/channels. What you see in Pugs is just the tip of the iceberg for the overall activity on the server.

Ever since my small guild got disbanded by its drunken guild leader I've become a bit more active with the channels on the server. I don't know all of them by any stretch of the imagination but just with the ones I do know I could stay busy without ever pug'ing. Between that and running with people I know I don't have a reason to post an LFM. I still do sometimes...just because I kind of like bringing a full group and seeing what happens...but I have no need to do so. I'll shortman most stuff with friends and if that doesn't work I'll check the channels first to see what I can drum up.

EDIT: Incidentally I checked the LFM's before I logged last night around 2:30am EST. There were a total of 7 for all levels.

[Chai]

I have to back the OP here. This is just plain wrong. I play consistently between the hours of 8pm pacific and 2am pacific. Over the last several months the total number of LFMs up through that time has steadily, and noticably dropped. On two seperate occasions in the last 4 weeks I've seen no LFMs up at all, and on far too many occasions to count I've seen between 2 and 6 LFMs up at a time. This is across all level ranges. My experience previous to these last few months is that of having to scroll through available LFMs at any time of day I've been on.

I'm not inclined to think this spells doom for DDO, yet though. I think the reasons are varied, Skyrim, university finals, holiday season, and a poor update (the challenges stuff is rubbish in my opinion, and I think didn't generate the interest in most they thought it might). I'll be very interested to see what's happening come mid January.

Lack of LFM =/= lack of server population. Maybe people are wisening up and selectively grouping more which means less random LFMs.

This game has survived alot of claims of mass exodus due to release of other games. We are so used to this by now that these types of threads dont even phase me anymore.

[Sandpredator]

I seem to recall that the mid-levels have always been a “dead zone”.

This has always been the case and will always be the case. You might get lucky every now and then and get an LFM for Sands or GH but not very often. Just start your own and it will fill quickly.