Epic scroll drop rate

[lugoman]

I really think something is broken with epic scroll drop mechanics. I know it is hard to show as you need to kill thousands of mobs to show something isnt random, but something seems off. I have farmed von5 a lot and usually get no scrolls, sometimes get 1 and rarely get 2 in one run. The times I did get 2 scrolls in one run both times it was 2 stonemeld plate scrolls. That cant be a coincidence.

Two scrolls dropping in 1 quest doesnt happen very often. I have noticed the same scroll sometimes drops twice in one run for different people.

[kernal42]

That cant be a coincidence.

Yes, it really can.

Nothing is broken with the scroll drop mechanics.

In the Sands, it's about a 2% chance per kill to get a scroll; or, on average, one scroll per 50 mobs.

Despite this, if you kill 50 mobs:
There's a 36% chance you get 0 scrolls
There's a 37% chance you get 1 scroll
There's a 19% chance you get 2 scrolls
There's a 6% chance you get 3 scrolls
etc.

Furthermore, with 19 epic items, there's a 5.2% chance that, in a quest that drops two scrolls, they be the same.

If you're sure that there's something wonky, collect the data to show us. Nobody believes (or, really, cares about) "feelings" or anecdotes.

-Kernal

[Cam_Neely]

That cant be a coincidence..

Actually, sounds like the definition of coincidence to me.
1. a chance occurrence of events remarkable either for being simultaneous or for apparently being connected

What actually isnt a coincidence is that I've caught kernal's hand in my ingredients bag twice now, trying to steal my scrolls

[Asketes]

My LSII goes off about four times as often as I get scrolls


just sayin

[kernal42]

What actually isnt a coincidence is that I've caught kernal's hand in my ingredients bag twice now, trying to steal my scrolls

Pah, we both know you don't have any scrolls worth stealing!

...at least, not anymore.....

[lugoman]

If you're sure that there's something wonky, collect the data to show us. Nobody believes (or, really, cares about) "feelings" or anecdotes.

-Kernal

Okay, brb Ill run a quest 10,000 times and report back.

Is it really that unbelievable that Turbine has made a programming error?

[Cam_Neely]

Okay, brb Ill run a quest 10,000 times and report back.

Is it really that unbelievable that Turbine has made a programming error?

Not, but it is that unbelievable that you have a data set large enough to show that they did

Pah, we both know you don't have any scrolls worth stealing!

...at least, not anymore.....

/shake fist.

[stainer]

Is it really that unbelievable that Turbine has made a programming error?

No, it isn't. Unfortunately your "feeling" doesn't prove that. Empirical data would.

[Cyr]

Okay, brb Ill run a quest 10,000 times and report back.

Is it really that unbelievable that Turbine has made a programming error?

Yeah...

Asking for statistical sampling from a single player for this sort of thing is not feasible. The best you can get is exactly what the OP is trying to do...getting as large a sample as possible by polling the user base. It's never going to be as good as one person gathering the data, but if was strong enough then it might be enough for a dev to make sure that 2.0 was typed in and not .2.

Oh and for my sample of data...depends on the pack and if they have changed rates in the past few months I couldn't comment, but older data indicates 75 or so from desert for me per scroll and less for house P and fens epics. Sample sizes can be considered around 100 scroll drops for the first two and less for the fens (25-50). And this was NOT gathered through good procedures and is entirely a ballpark.

[lugoman]

Not, but it is that unbelievable that you have a data set large enough to show that they did


/shake fist.

Right, and no one ever will. It works both ways. How can you know it is completely random without the same huge data set?

The number of two scroll drop runs is pretty small. The number of times the same two scrolls drop in a two scroll run seems high - as if something isnt being reset properly. I know my 'feelings' dont meet scientific standards of proof, but I am not trying to win a Nobel Prize. Just wondering if it is only me or if others noticed anything similar. I am not complaining, I cant wait for it to happen when a marilith scroll drops.

[Sirslapemsack]

i was scroll farming on my monk in evon 1. In around 70-80 kills i got 5 scrolls. Belt of Moron, ironweave, Dragons eye, delving goggles, and Shield scrolls. 2 dropped in 1 run of around 30ish kills. Unlikely? yes. Possible? obviously. Ive also gotten 100+ epic kills in the same quest and got nothing to show for it. Its a game of chance just like everytime you open a warded chest. Ive also seen the same scroll drop in the same run before. usually garbage scroll but still yet.

[ViolentEnd]

I have kept track when farming scrolls. In the desert, at least, scroll drop rates are right about 1%, or 1 scroll per 100 kills. This has been consistent for me over many thousands of kills.
Of those scrolls that do drop, only about 1 in 25 or so is a raid scroll. The others seem to be somewhat evenly distributed, although there does seem to be a bias regarding "more valuable" scrolls dropping infrequent than trash scrolls. Hope this helps.
On a related note, epic token shards drop at about 5% per kill, or 1 in 20.

[kernal42]

Right, and no one ever will. It works both ways. How can you know it is completely random without the same huge data set?

Not really true. If everyone pooled their efforts, I'm sure there's enough epic quests run and enough scroll farming performed to have far better than necessary statistics to rule out any significant deviations. Unfortunately you're right that proving the distribution to be perfectly known is impossible with any finite data set.

One course of action, which I assume you are taking here, is to look for significant deviations from what you would expect, ie identical scroll drops. Then once you have a hypothesis, gathering evidence to support or refute it is easily done. In this case, I'm sure any number of people (myself included) can come forward to tell you that your experience is a rare one.

The number of two scroll drop runs is pretty small. The number of times the same two scrolls drop in a two scroll run seems high - as if something isnt being reset properly. I know my 'feelings' dont meet scientific standards of proof, but I am not trying to win a Nobel Prize. Just wondering if it is only me or if others noticed anything similar. I am not complaining, I cant wait for it to happen when a marilith scroll drops.

Having "feelings" about something being off is fine. That's the inspiration to go test it or find other people to help you test it. In this case, my own observations (I'll see what data I have on it later) suggest that identical-scroll drops are, as they should be, a rare occurrence.

Also important is accepting when it's the case that the most likely explanation is that a possible-yet-unlikely even ocurred.

-Kernal