Random number generator - please make it more random

[Cyr]

OP number clustering is a way to indicate weighted distrubitions.

However, the easiest way to show a high degree of confidence that a certain dice roll is less likely then another (and not just that a streak of a certain number ie cluster) is to have a as large a sample size as possible and add up the total rolls of each number.

Draccus (if I remember correctly) did this with UMD checks to demonstrate the odds of rolling a 1 are weighted (at least as far as UMD checks go).

I would be very interested to see this same test being done on saving throws made by players as well as attack roles. My feeling has always been from what limited testing I have done that the distribution is not flat and is actually weighted on the high and low sides for these rolls.

[KraahgDaAxe]

I don't think that only one instance of a random number generator will be able to support the games needs.
I would guess that there is one per character, mob, or any other relevant game object. Makes more sense to me.

Actually multiple die rollers would be far more detrimental to the server. Plus it would effectively limit the number of "users" that can roll dice altogether. It has to be from a base source per server.

Kraahg

[Xilraazz]

just a couple nights ago playing PnP i rolled 4 9's in a row on a d20. using the exact same die.
how's that for random...

[elraido]

If it is so random....why do I only roll ones when it matters....and 20's on vorpals when the creature was going to die on that swing anyway? Cursed I tell you, cursed!!!

[cedad]

As for the number of roll you would have to test to have the beginning of an idea about the randomness of the clusters.
You are looking for series of 3 numbers each of which has 1/20*20*20 = 1/8.000 chance of happenning.
In order to has a signinficant result you would need something with about a thousand of each occurence therefore you would need somewhere in the 8.000.000 results (considering that a 6 number sequence inhalt 4 series of 3 numbers).
strict minimum would be around 40.000 for 5 opportunities of each part (minimum needed for Khi Square application) if everything is perfectly randomised on your sample...

Oh, and one last thing random does not mean everything has the same probability...

[stockwizard5]

I would point out that I there was discussion/instances back in the day about something (lag, etc.) causing rolls not to update and there were some rather long strings recorded. I'll look around and see if I can find some of that data as I remember running some math that showed there was in fact an issue.

That said - I have no doubt the generator is fine.

[Quarterling]

There are two ways of doing random numbers.

One is using a uniform random distribution, and the other is using a Halton sequence.

What you just witnessed is proof that Turbine is using a uniform random distribution, because the Halton sequence always makes sure that all random values are distributed fairly evenly to give the illusion of randomness. This is not true in the real world however, because it IS possible to roll let's say, a one on a d100 over fifty times in a row. This would never happen in the Halton sequence.

[Siskel]

The roles are random because you cannot predict the outcome of the next role. The distribution appears to be uniform given the tests others have run indicated earlier in the thread. The only thing I did not see was testing the distribution in multiple dimensions. Not entirely sure if it is even necessary to test in multiple dimensions given how the RNG is being used in this case. There might be some game mechanics that would require the distribution to be tested in multiple dimensions. It has been over a decade since I worked on anything related to random numbers, so it is entirely possible I am wrong.

[SiliconShadow]

The difference between the two is so small that you probably will not pull the shorter straw because of it in a lifetime.

Otherwise, what you are saying is that the program repeats 'small' seeds. As far as i know smallest seeds range in the 2^32 order of magnitude. Even if the game would use the worst prng out there, you cannot possibly see it in 213 results, nor in 14 months of playing

Just for the numbers, in the above example you would have to make 118 rolls every second for 14 months 24/7 to have a full sample. And erm, recording it, not FEELING about it

I repeat, 118 rolls/s for your 14 months of continous gameplay.

Sorry, I don't see your reasoning either obvious, or true. Quoted samples are just too small for that.

That isn't what I am saying at all you are quoting maths I am talking about system restraints your reasoning is incorrect for the environment.