Comparing shintao with dark

[zealous]

So shintao got a bunch of neat stuff while the dark monks potentially got hit by the change to ToD.

What will the actual difference be though?


Touch of death: 250|500*1.8(2.8) damage every 15s at ~4 attacks/s=>approx equivalent to 7.5-15(23) damage/attack.

For e.g. shroud etc. Light vs. Dark would either be:

A. alignment (burst) of greater bane vs. metalline of greater bane where dark would have a slight advantage, 7+7*2/20 vs. 7.5+5.25

B. using the same wraps (decent greater bane) light monks are up 2-3 damage, more for higher difficulties than normal.

C. decent greater bane vs. metalline of pg. with e.g. shock of greater bane the light monk would get approx 15 advantage from weapon which will put light ahead by 2-3 damage.

That's the baseline assuming saves are unsuccessful.

Accounting for beating saves would require knowing the saves for the major mobs which I don't have any hard numbers for, help would be appreciated =)

I also don't know the specifics of the shintao thingies, i.e. cool down, save interval(2s?).

Can always speculate though;
Assuming that the dark monk will likely have approximately the same chance to land
a full ToD as the light monk will have of landing jade strike(JS), that the cooldown for both is 15s.

ToD will add: 7.5 damage*<chance of failed save>
JS will add: 0.1*total dps of party*<time affected>*1/30 attacks per fifteen s*<chance of failed save> due to the increased damage debuff.
Your average party should likely have in excess of 200*6 dps, assuming the second save is successful, i.e. time affected of 2, JS would thus be equivalent to 8 damage/attack and thus match/surpass the benefit of Tod beating saves.

JS also has a chance to proc tomb of jade on a crit, assuming that autocrits on a mob with 50% fortification results in at least 50% increase of damage this would be equivalent to:
0.5*total dps of party*<time affected>*1/30 attacks per fifteen s*2/20 chance to crit<chance of failed save>
Using the same example and assumption as for the debuff this would be equivalent to 4 damage/attack.

add smite tainted for the equivalent of 2 damage/attack, all scaled by chance to save ofc.

This is obviously a simplification though not accounting for a lot of things. A start though =)

[zealous]

I apologize. My numbers were off.

Smite is indeed set to 15 seconds, as is Jade Strike. Tomb of Jade has a cooldown of 1 minute.

I got confused because durations are listed in the enhancements as 30 seconds, but I believe that refers to the tomb of jade on vorpal/crit strikes.

Turns out the duration was 15s after all, maximum duration of 30s is also good to know.

In the previous post it was assumed that the mob would immediately save after the effect being applied which obviously is a more or less severe understatement.

Without going into unnecessary details, the expected duration for any type of save every x sec duration spells/abilities is the sum of a geometric series:
duration=s*(1-p^(n+1))/(1-p) with p being the chance of a mob to fail the save, n being the maximum number of save intervals before expiration and s being the save interval, assuming the ability landed successfully.

breaking out a spreadsheet and pasting the following at A1 in sheet 1:

p	exp duration	adj duration
0.95	=2*(1-A2^(15))/(1-A2)	=B2*A2*Sheet2.$B$1
=MAX(A2-0.05,0.05)

fill down to row 20 and paste the following at A1 in sheet 2:

pcrit	0.1

We now have the expected duration of a successful JS as well as the expected time affected by JS depending on chance to land it.

[zealous]

This is enough to make a first estimate of what effect JS will have. When activating the ability one of 4 things will happen.
A. both effects land
B. only damage vulnerability lands
C. only tomb lands
D. neither lands

The chance of landing tomb will be chance to crit*chance to beat save, pt.
The chance of landing the damage vulnerability + fortification deduction is simply chance to beat saves, pd.

pA=pt*pd
pB=pd*(1-pt)
pC=pt*(1-pd)
pD=(1-pt)*(1-pd)

To incorporate into the spread sheet;
Insert a column between B and C, enter =A2*Sheet2.$B$1*(1-A2) into C2 and change D2 to =C2*B2, enter a proper header at C1, e.g. chance to land.

Then copy A1: D20 and paste at A25 and A50.
Change C26 into =(1-A26*Sheet2.$B$1)*A26 and fill down.

Finally change C51 into =A51^2*Sheet2.$B$1 and fill down.

Keeping both effects on the mobs for repeated save intervals requires the mob failing multiple saves, change B51 to =2*(1-(A51^2)^(15))/(1-(A51^2)) in order to account for this.