Has a price guide system been attempted?

[skyjuice]

Hi.

It struck me as a newbie, that one of the first few things that dont come apparent is how much something can land me. How much an item can actually sell or be purchased for so to speak.

I've been selling quite abit on the AH, its been several months since the FTP concept (yes i started when the FTP campaign was launched) and i've been systematically copying down notes for price ranges. Again, if the feasibility for a price guide type thread exists, it is only used as a rough guide line, and not to be a "set in stone fact". It is certain that,supply and demand influences the part in determining the value of such items.

I'll like to see some reaction/feedback as this will be a WIP, taking inputs from others.

LMK what yall think.

[Shishizaru]

Hi.

It struck me as a newbie, that one of the first few things that dont come apparent is how much something can land me. How much an item can actually sell or be purchased for so to speak.

I've been selling quite abit on the AH, its been several months since the FTP concept (yes i started when the FTP campaign was launched) and i've been systematically copying down notes for price ranges. Again, if the feasibility for a price guide type thread exists, it is only used as a rough guide line, and not to be a "set in stone fact". It is certain that,supply and demand influences the part in determining the value of such items.

I'll like to see some reaction/feedback as this will be a WIP, taking inputs from others.

LMK what yall think.

I think it's an excellent idea in theory, but I'm not sure how feasible it is in reality.

While everyone is spouting off something or the other about "free market" prices and what not, I don't consider these "free market" prices. It's simply a really bad snapshot of what one buyer is willing to sell at and possibly what one (or more) buyers are willing to buy at. Then you have to account for player resources and the whole thing gets really convoluted. It'd really be a lot easier if players owned stores and the likes, but I'm neither complaining nor demanding (or even asking) for that. Just saying that stores would be a much better model of a free market economy, and consequently a bit easier to apply this kind of analysis to.

A lot of people post things at ridiculous prices because they hope some plat-endowed veteran will buy it (because they want it and can afford it).

There's also the problem with being unable to see exactly which auctions sold and for how much they sold for.

I'm sure if you were able to take a huge sample size and analyze it, you might come out with something meaningful, but I'm not sure. Perhaps a better "guide" you could work on would be compiling what kinds of items are valuable (i.e. what collectibles, what effects like Pure Good or Elemental Bursts, what weapon types, etc). Many players already know this, many are still learning it themselves, but I think compiling this kind of guide would be immensely helpful for newer players. It may even save them from vendoring/brokering a valuable twink weapon or turning in those Vials of Pure Water.

So uh...I dunno. XD

[Angelus_dead]

It is certain that,supply and demand influences the part in determining the value of such items.

Unfortunately, prices in DDO are often more influenced by factors beyond supply and demand. It isn't what an economist could call an efficient market, at least as far as the majority of items are concerned. That is, the actual money for the item is often a smaller part of the cost than the time spent doing the shopping.

LMK what yall think.

What level are you? How close are you to the plat cap? Are you aware of the alternate currencies?

[Harncw]

I don't think it can be done.

Nerfs (see wounding of puncturing) (these are likes acts of god)
Builds of the month (see weighted)
AH manipulations (see GH dragon relics, funk, pebbles here on Khyber)

The fact that there is no central exchange, that transactions are not recorded and made public...

All these things add up to make it one big **** shoot.

If it is any consolation Large Scales have consistently traded on Khyber for 250kpp-300kpp for about a year now.

[justagame]

One of my guildmates did this about a year or so ago for collectables, trying to watch the AH as closely as possible. Of course, even that is limited, because it's often tough to tell what sells and what doesn't. The main problem is that perceived values shift quite a bit, and the time to compile such a list would probably dwarf the amount of time such a list would be valid.

Consider just two examples: Back when he did this, you could sell 5 pure water for 500k gold -- today, you can't a fifth of that (on argo, at least). The same goes for equipment. In the past, I have actually purchased a sunblade from the broker in house D, but would have to pay over a million gold for one today on the AH.

I think part of it has to do with the shifting player population. Before FtP, there were lots of capped toons with the equipment they wanted. There was much less activity in the low level quests (where things such as pure water drop, for example.) An item such a sunblade, great for low and even mid-level characters, was not terribly useful compared to weapons available at higher levels. Today, with many newer players, the relative value of these two examples has shifted. People are running low level quests much more (including ftp favor runs), and picking up tons of pure water in the process. Likewise, with a bulging population of low and mid-level characters, a weapon such as a sunblade is in much higher demand.

[ddoplayer064]

I have to agree with above people. Prices fluctuate far too much to get an accurate reading. Consider what I've bought:
1. +2 flaming rapier of pure good for less than 3kpp
2. +1 metalline scimitar of pure good for 12kpp
3. +4 mith BP for around 10kpp

Don't know if those are "good" prices or not, but from what I've seen on the AH and in the trade channels, those are extremely low.

[Psyk0sisS]

Another major factor now is...Epic upgrades. Named loot a few months ago that you could buy for 5-10kpp, now selling in the 50-100kpp range..or more, because A) its a good upgrade, or B) the pack will go epic in the future and they hope the upgrade will be awesome.

I like the idea, it might be doable with compiling a tiered list of random generated loot. Say, in columns, you have basic weapon price, then prefix price, then suffix price. So you pulled an Acid Burst Heavy Mace of Pure Good...Not bad, but tack on an extra 100kpp if it was a Rapier. A basic guide. It'll never be fully accurate however.

[tomfar72]

I have to agree with above people. Prices fluctuate far too much to get an accurate reading. Consider what I've bought:
1. +2 flaming rapier of pure good for less than 3kpp
2. +1 metalline scimitar of pure good for 12kpp
3. +4 mith BP for around 10kpp

Don't know if those are "good" prices or not, but from what I've seen on the AH and in the trade channels, those are extremely low.

Yeah, I would say those are outstanding deals. On Argo, prices have skyrocketed over the past cpl months to rediculous lvls. I was looking through the auctioneer yesterday and things like +1 metaline rapiers of PG were going for 1.5 million gold. Well, I can't believe they are SELLING at that price, but they are listed at it.

[ddoplayer064]

Yeah, I would say those are outstanding deals. On Argo, prices have skyrocketed over the past cpl months to rediculous lvls. I was looking through the auctioneer yesterday and things like +1 metaline rapiers of PG were going for 1.5 million gold. Well, I can't believe they are SELLING at that price, but they are listed at it.

Yeah, same on Khyber. I saw that scim, and snatched it up (gonna need a couple of beaters some day...)

[Phidius]

Buying:

1. Go through each page in the category you are interested in, and make a note of buyout prices. If the auction has only an hour left, make a note of the current bid.
2. If you see an auction that you think is a good deal, buy it. If not, come back at a later time and repeat.

Selling:

1. Go through each page in the category you are selling in, and make a note of buyout prices and minimum bids.
2. If the cheapest you found is a good price for you, post yours for a little less.
3. If the cheapest is less than what you are willing to accept, come back at a later time and repeat.


Optional:
If the prices you found are too high or too low for your tastes, go to the forums and post the latest in Auction House complaints, asking either

a. the Devs to regulate and control the Auction House pricing, or
b. the players to collaborate and set fixed prices.

[Harncw]

Optional:
If the prices you found are too high or too low for your tastes, go to the forums and post the latest in Auction House complaints, asking either

a. the Devs to regulate and control the Auction House pricing, or
b. the players to collaborate and set fixed prices.

/QTF

That always works!

[Coffee]

Trading is a hobby of mine and I think one of the best parts of DDO.

There is much complaining about high prices and a demand for price ceilings on certain goods in the AH. DDO is a pure market in every sense. The prices react very quickly to game changes and are a very good indication on what weapons/gear are most effective (right now).

For example: +2 tomes generally listed for 400-500kp on the AH and sold privately at 200-350kp for the last 2 years. When tomes started dropping more and more with the new content, and they became min lvl 7 restricted, prices have plummeted to 200-350kp on the AH and 100-150kp sold privately.

Another great example: Wounding of Puncturing Rapiers. These items used to be the most effective items for melee toons. You could hardly find them for less then 2-5mil plat (depending on hardness/lvl/+). However, with the recent changes, you can pick one up for 1mil plat privatly (rarely on AH).

Keep in mind that the prices on the AH represent 2 things, a hefty fee added per transaction by DDO and scarcity-driven opportunism.

The first is easy to understand, it simply costs more to sell an item on the AH, so the cost is passed on to the buyer.

The second is a key to making great purchases. Scarcity-driven opportunism is simply when there are only a few items available, price speculators post them at inflated prices to fish for huge profits. When you need an item (like a Docent of Defiance), wait for two or three to be posted that compete with each other. Often, you will find that one will try and undercut the other over the course of a week and you can take advantage of the fight. I look for deals and stay away from impulse (must have items) that are overpriced. After all, this is how a free market (not an over-regulated market) really works.

Finally, have fun with the DDO market - have patience and relish the moments when you buy something cheap and resell it for a bundle.

[skyjuice]

Hi all, thank you for voicing your opinions. What follows is my multi-quote reply to each:

I think it's an excellent idea in theory, but I'm not sure how feasible it is in reality.

Hence, the reason for starting this in the first place, hearing as much as possible.

While everyone is spouting off something or the other about "free market" prices and what not, I don't consider these "free market" prices. It's simply a really bad snapshot of what one buyer is willing to sell at and possibly what one (or more) buyers are willing to buy at. Then you have to account for player resources and the whole thing gets really convoluted. It'd really be a lot easier if players owned stores and the likes, but I'm neither complaining nor demanding (or even asking) for that. Just saying that stores would be a much better model of a free market economy, and consequently a bit easier to apply this kind of analysis to.

Yes, its easier to open a Store type thread, and of course that is the only way to post up your trade and ISO lists, how else does one go about then if not?

A lot of people post things at ridiculous prices because they hope some plat-endowed veteran will buy it (because they want it and can afford it).

One of the advantages to the the market population is this - DDO doesn't have 2 seperate models of whats worth what. I will take an example of where i'm coming from. Take for example, Diablo 2 LOD. Before coming to DDO, i was a avid trader for that game on a certain respectable website. For those unaware in D2 Blizzard segmented up the market into Ladder and non-ladder, and then when they feel its time to reset the Ladder population to the NL population, a new ladder starts and everyone starts from square one. Luckily for DDO, we don't have that. The closest comparison i can think of is the grey line that exists between the subscriber and non-subs. This is a good thing because non every FTPer has access to something they want that drops in a pack (obviously they dont have it being the main reason) so the seller has an opportunity to tap into that market where else those with access may not find that very attractive as they can simply run it.

So, back to the point. Prices can be inflated by some factors, one of which is Greed obviously. Next, the game is a number of years old. Those who stayed and endured are likely swimming in $$$. Lastly, the coin lords -in their greed- imposes a 30% cut on successful bids. These reasons add to the final figure on the buy out list.

There's also the problem with being unable to see exactly which auctions sold and for how much they sold for.

This is very true, alas there is no way to monitor. There is one, but very tedious to say the least.

I'm sure if you were able to take a huge sample size and analyze it, you might come out with something meaningful, but I'm not sure. Perhaps a better "guide" you could work on would be compiling what kinds of items are valuable (i.e. what collectibles, what effects like Pure Good or Elemental Bursts, what weapon types, etc). Many players already know this, many are still learning it themselves, but I think compiling this kind of guide would be immensely helpful for newer players. It may even save them from vendoring/brokering a valuable twink weapon or turning in those Vials of Pure Water.

I agree completely. But compiling this sort of list is redundant as there are already several threads/posts/tidbits/ that mentions this. But i know what you are trying to say.

So uh...I dunno. XD

Unfortunately, prices in DDO are often more influenced by factors beyond supply and demand. It isn't what an economist could call an efficient market, at least as far as the majority of items are concerned. That is, the actual money for the item is often a smaller part of the cost than the time spent doing the shopping.

Kinda vague. what factors are you talking about, if so list them out. You mentioned time being a bigger factor in acquiring stuff, are u referencing the AH UI?

What level are you? How close are you to the plat cap? Are you aware of the alternate currencies?

20. Not reached cap but currently i have about 30 odd million golds each across 4 toons. No i am not aware.

I fail to see how most of the above even matter in this discussion

I don't think it can be done.

Nerfs (see wounding of puncturing) (these are likes acts of god)
Builds of the month (see weighted)
AH manipulations (see GH dragon relics, funk, pebbles here on Khyber)

Remember, the price list is not set in stone. I expect it to fluctuate like the stock market. Coming from where i was (d2) i'll give another example so bare with me. There used to be a certain elite version of a XBOW that completely owned monsters and players alike. Needless to say, it isnt just good with monsters in the endgame, but is a very feasible but cheesy PVP weapon as well. Then, in a patch the skills used in conjunction with that item got nerfed, with subsequent effects inherent in it getting the nerf hammer. Value of said xbow plummeted down faster than one can say "SOJ". Many deleted or converted those characters into mere mules later on.

The fact that there is no central exchange, that transactions are not recorded and made public...

All these things add up to make it one big **** shoot.

If it is any consolation Large Scales have consistently traded on Khyber for 250kpp-300kpp for about a year now.

Looks like larges are getting pigeon holed into a price range, this is good. The way i see it, sounds like an alternative type of currency.

One of my guildmates did this about a year or so ago for collectables, trying to watch the AH as closely as possible. Of course, even that is limited, because it's often tough to tell what sells and what doesn't. The main problem is that perceived values shift quite a bit, and the time to compile such a list would probably dwarf the amount of time such a list would be valid.

Is there a link somewhere i can check out?

Consider just two examples: Back when he did this, you could sell 5 pure water for 500k gold -- today, you can't a fifth of that (on argo, at least). The same goes for equipment. In the past, I have actually purchased a sunblade from the broker in house D, but would have to pay over a million gold for one today on the AH.

I think part of it has to do with the shifting player population. Before FtP, there were lots of capped toons with the equipment they wanted. There was much less activity in the low level quests (where things such as pure water drop, for example.) An item such a sunblade, great for low and even mid-level characters, was not terribly useful compared to weapons available at higher levels. Today, with many newer players, the relative value of these two examples has shifted. People are running low level quests much more (including ftp favor runs), and picking up tons of pure water in the process. Likewise, with a bulging population of low and mid-level characters, a weapon such as a sunblade is in much higher demand.

Price fluctuation, happens alot when a game goes through design changes. See above.

I have to agree with above people. Prices fluctuate far too much to get an accurate reading. Consider what I've bought:
1. +2 flaming rapier of pure good for less than 3kpp
2. +1 metalline scimitar of pure good for 12kpp
3. +4 mith BP for around 10kpp

Don't know if those are "good" prices or not, but from what I've seen on the AH and in the trade channels, those are extremely low.

Good deals on the above. But again..to reiterate my point - that the guide only serves as a 'snap shot' of what one CAN get (not to be confused to WILL get). If you bought something below a certain range, you have a steal of a deal!

Another major factor now is...Epic upgrades. Named loot a few months ago that you could buy for 5-10kpp, now selling in the 50-100kpp range..or more, because A) its a good upgrade, or B) the pack will go epic in the future and they hope the upgrade will be awesome.

I like the idea, it might be doable with compiling a tiered list of random generated loot. Say, in columns, you have basic weapon price, then prefix price, then suffix price. So you pulled an Acid Burst Heavy Mace of Pure Good...Not bad, but tack on an extra 100kpp if it was a Rapier. A basic guide. It'll never be fully accurate however.

Good point on the named epic upgrades. This is also inline with what i mentioned about game updates above.

On the other hand i do not agree on the randomised loot idea as a possible template in the price list because the number of combos is just too much for one to handle alone...maybe not now.

Yeah, I would say those are outstanding deals. On Argo, prices have skyrocketed over the past cpl months to rediculous lvls. I was looking through the auctioneer yesterday and things like +1 metaline rapiers of PG were going for 1.5 million gold. Well, I can't believe they are SELLING at that price, but they are listed at it.

SOLD and LISTED are 2 different sides of the court

Randomized items are really an uphill task, because a particular weapon base may not sell as much as another, even with the exact same suffix+prefix.

Yeah, same on Khyber. I saw that scim, and snatched it up (gonna need a couple of beaters some day...)

Buying:

1. Go through each page in the category you are interested in, and make a note of buyout prices. If the auction has only an hour left, make a note of the current bid.
2. If you see an auction that you think is a good deal, buy it. If not, come back at a later time and repeat.

Selling:

1. Go through each page in the category you are selling in, and make a note of buyout prices and minimum bids.
2. If the cheapest you found is a good price for you, post yours for a little less.
3. If the cheapest is less than what you are willing to accept, come back at a later time and repeat.


Optional:
If the prices you found are too high or too low for your tastes, go to the forums and post the latest in Auction House complaints, asking either

a. the Devs to regulate and control the Auction House pricing, or
b. the players to collaborate and set fixed prices.

Lol This brings up an interesting point. If the List comes into fruition, should the prices list AH type prices OR prices MINUS the cut?

Trading is a hobby of mine and I think one of the best parts of DDO.

There is much complaining about high prices and a demand for price ceilings on certain goods in the AH. DDO is a pure market in every sense. The prices react very quickly to game changes and are a very good indication on what weapons/gear are most effective (right now).

For example: +2 tomes generally listed for 400-500kp on the AH and sold privately at 200-350kp for the last 2 years. When tomes started dropping more and more with the new content, and they became min lvl 7 restricted, prices have plummeted to 200-350kp on the AH and 100-150kp sold privately.

Another great example: Wounding of Puncturing Rapiers. These items used to be the most effective items for melee toons. You could hardly find them for less then 2-5mil plat (depending on hardness/lvl/+). However, with the recent changes, you can pick one up for 1mil plat privatly (rarely on AH).

Keep in mind that the prices on the AH represent 2 things, a hefty fee added per transaction by DDO and scarcity-driven opportunism.

The first is easy to understand, it simply costs more to sell an item on the AH, so the cost is passed on to the buyer.

The second is a key to making great purchases. Scarcity-driven opportunism is simply when there are only a few items available, price speculators post them at inflated prices to fish for huge profits. When you need an item (like a Docent of Defiance), wait for two or three to be posted that compete with each other. Often, you will find that one will try and undercut the other over the course of a week and you can take advantage of the fight. I look for deals and stay away from impulse (must have items) that are overpriced. After all, this is how a free market (not an over-regulated market) really works.

Finally, have fun with the DDO market - have patience and relish the moments when you buy something cheap and resell it for a bundle.

I know where you are coming from in regards to supply and demand;push pull market forces, but this thread is not about how to tackle and play the AH game (sounds like it) but how a price list will HELP the new players determine whats worth keeping, whats useful, and whats just vendor junk. How will a price list done exclusively here will change the passing around of goods among the population? Will making such a thread -as a reference- attract more players into the khyber marketplace, and how making such a thread can influence the trading community here.

With the implementation of in-game browsing, making a thread and checking your subscriptions are now just a click away.

[Coffee]

Based on your responses, it sounds like you have a lot of passion for this. I do believe that some kind of relative item value list would help new and returning players get their bearings in the DDO market.

Since prices change dramatically from week to week with festivals and new offerings in the DDO store, I suggest the creation of a point scoring system similar to the one used for epic items here:

http://forums.ddo.com/showthread.php?t=226744