16 Shrouds in 1 week and no Large Devil Scales

[KKDragonLord]

Greataxe has larger crits, Greatsword crits more often... Pretty closely balanced.

The main thing the greataxe has going for it is that it swings faster. They are fixing this in Mod 9 (They will both swing at the same speed) so there's nothing wrong with crafting a greatsword.

Also, the increased range is very important for a Paladin to trigger those nasty Crit Smites. Using a falchion solely for that purpose is better but is way too much complicated. I personaly favor the GSwd though b/c my pally is a warforged and its the Fav weapon of the Lord of Blades.
(Btw i Am aware that pallys should always do twf, no need to point that out)

[Philam]

Wow! I'm glad that the drop rate is balanced.

Suggestion for the DDO Store: Large Devil Scales

I suggest contact your guild leader. Many times they have extra scales that they would be more then happy to give to you, inorder to improve the overall quality of their guild.

[KingOfCheese]

It seems like everything is a random drop. The perception that scales drop less comes from 2 sources. 1) Scales are used more often by the population--so they end up being the most valuable (and rarest on the trading boards). 2) Bad luck, combined with the former, creates the perception of a lower drop rate. There will be runs, that seem statistically impossible, where no scales drop. Below is a set of randomly generated numbers from 1-6 (200 total). Assume 1=bone; 2=stone; 3=chain; 4=shrapnel; 5=arrow; and 6=scale. The first scale doesn't drop until the 11th time. This could be a month of grinding, depending on how often the raid is run. There is a stretch in the middle where 20 runs exist between scales (during this stretch, it would seem like things are impossibly screwed up). But over enough runs, it evens out. In the example below, 34 scales drop in total (17%; random odds would put it at 16.7%).


3 4 4 1 2 5 3 3 4 1 6 2 6 6 5 4
1 6 2 1 3 1 5 3 1 4 6 1 4 4 1 6
1 2 4 4 6 5 3 2 5 5 6 1 6 2 5 2
6 6 5 2 5 2 5 3 5 4 5 1 3 6 3 1
6 5 1 3 6 4 1 2 2 2 5 6 1 4 2 3
5 6 1 2 3 3 1 3 1 2 2 6 4 4 6 4
3 4 1 1 6 6 3 6 6 3 3 3 4 1 1 2
2 1 4 4 1 2 3 2 1 1 3 2 6 4 2 4
6 5 4 5 1 5 4 2 2 3 4 4 1 4 3 1
4 1 3 2 6 3 1 3 4 2 2 6 6 5 2 2
4 6 4 6 2 5 4 2 1 1 1 3 6 5 6 3
1 1 5 1 5 1 2 5 3 3 3 3 5 4 5 6
6 1 2 1 2 6 1 2

[Vua]

It seems like everything is a random drop. The perception that scales drop less comes from 2 sources. 1) Scales are used more often by the population--so they end up being the most valuable (and rarest on the trading boards). 2) Bad luck, combined with the former, creates the perception of a lower drop rate. There will be runs, that seem statistically impossible, where no scales drop. Below is a set of randomly generated numbers from 1-6 (200 total). Assume 1=bone; 2=stone; 3=chain; 4=shrapnel; 5=arrow; and 6=scale. The first scale doesn't drop until the 11th time. This could be a month of grinding, depending on how often the raid is run. There is a stretch in the middle where 20 runs exist between scales (during this stretch, it would seem like things are impossibly screwed up). But over enough runs, it evens out. In the example below, 34 scales drop in total (17%; random odds would put it at 16.7%).


3 4 4 1 2 5 3 3 4 1 6 2 6 6 5 4
1 6 2 1 3 1 5 3 1 4 6 1 4 4 1 6
1 2 4 4 6 5 3 2 5 5 6 1 6 2 5 2
6 6 5 2 5 2 5 3 5 4 5 1 3 6 3 1
6 5 1 3 6 4 1 2 2 2 5 6 1 4 2 3
5 6 1 2 3 3 1 3 1 2 2 6 4 4 6 4
3 4 1 1 6 6 3 6 6 3 3 3 4 1 1 2
2 1 4 4 1 2 3 2 1 1 3 2 6 4 2 4
6 5 4 5 1 5 4 2 2 3 4 4 1 4 3 1
4 1 3 2 6 3 1 3 4 2 2 6 6 5 2 2
4 6 4 6 2 5 4 2 1 1 1 3 6 5 6 3
1 1 5 1 5 1 2 5 3 3 3 3 5 4 5 6
6 1 2 1 2 6 1 2

I think you should make #5 scales. Also I noticed that even when you generate these random numbers you get boned more than any other ingredient.

[KingOfCheese]

I think you should make #5 scales. Also I noticed that even when you generate these random numbers you get boned more than any other ingredient.

I probably should have picked #5 for scale. There is one stretch in there with about 48 runs before one comes up. The odds are highly against going 48 runs between pulls. BUT, in a large collection of random events, the odds are high that one or more rare things will happen. Our brains tend to remember the rare events causing us to doubt the randomness of random events (Las Vegas is set up to take greatest advantage of this--to make us remember the rare events (wins) and forget the common events (lose)). This game really plays those mind tricks on us. The same can be said for rolling 1 (missed save, missed hit) or rolling 20 (crit). I hear people insist that these 1's and 20's occur more or less than random. While it is possible that this is true (software random number generator glitch, etc.), most likely this is the result of the way our brains process "good" or "bad" results to perceive natural, but odd, random trends as non-randomness.

[78mackson]

Greydeath thinks min2 is overhyped.. what game do you play? if something is overhyped its the trashmob squasher--(radience)--

[gfunk]

I kept meticulous track of the larges I pulled in 114 runs.. then I got bored with it. I found that all the larges had a 15% chance of dropping (except horns which had a 10% chance). I would often go over 10 runs without pulling a specific large, but in the end it all evened out. I also found the drop rate of larges in the part 4 chests to be almost exactly 50%. That gives you an average of 24 chances to pull a large ingredient over 16 runs. Breaking this down into joint probability:

85.0% odds of not pulling a specific large from your first chest
72.3%
61.4%
52.2%
44.4% (5th chance)
37.7%
32.1%
27.2%
23.2%
19.7% (10th chance)
16.7%
14.2%
12.1%
10.3%
8.7% (15th chance)
7.4%
6.3%
5.4%
4.6%
3.9% (20th chance)
3.3%
2.8%
2.4%
2.0% odds of not pulling a specific large after your 24th chance (16 chances from part 5 chests and 8 chances from part 4 chests).

2% seems like pretty low odds, except when you think of it as meaning that 2 out of every 100 people will have this happen to them. You seem to be one of those people

Good luck on future runs, I'm sure it will start to turn around for you.

[Riorik]

The loot gawds hate you.

[Galacticus]

On DDO cast the devs said that large scales can drop in chests in quests where there are devils.

Meaning: With the release, the shroud will not be the only place you can get large devil scales per the devs.

I doubt this will change the drop rate it just means that we have more places and more chances to get them. 10% of 100 or 1000 is still 10%.

Enjoy the grind


Question why can't we get large devil scales as a drop when we've killed off the devil himself? hhhhmmm. I should be able to skin myself a few off his carcass.

[Galacticus]

Drakk i hear ya... I went 3 weeks (5-6 toons constantly timered) and I managed exclusively arrows and bones, with NO other large ingrediant of any kind on any of my toons.. balanced drop rates sure

If I go that long I'll take a trip to MASS. and get the scales personally from turbine...there are plenty of devils roaming around at turbine.

[Galacticus]

I kept meticulous track of the larges I pulled in 114 runs.. then I got bored with it. I found that all the larges had a 15% chance of dropping (except horns which had a 10% chance). I would often go over 10 runs without pulling a specific large, but in the end it all evened out. I also found the drop rate of larges in the part 4 chests to be almost exactly 50%. That gives you an average of 24 chances to pull a large ingredient over 16 runs. Breaking this down into joint probability:

85.0% odds of not pulling a specific large from your first chest
72.3%
61.4%
52.2%
44.4% (5th chance)
37.7%
32.1%
27.2%
23.2%
19.7% (10th chance)
16.7%
14.2%
12.1%
10.3%
8.7% (15th chance)
7.4%
6.3%
5.4%
4.6%
3.9% (20th chance)
3.3%
2.8%
2.4%
2.0% odds of not pulling a specific large after your 24th chance (16 chances from part 5 chests and 8 chances from part 4 chests).

2% seems like pretty low odds, except when you think of it as meaning that 2 out of every 100 people will have this happen to them. You seem to be one of those people

Good luck on future runs, I'm sure it will start to turn around for you.

Wow! That gave me a headache...if you say so man, if you say so

[Galacticus]

I play 9 capped characters, but I don't craft a lot of tier 3 items for each one. Most of them play the role of support for the 1 or 2 who I want to have 3 weapons and 6 items. This may be the way Drak plays as well.

Shroud Drones, yup. 13 toons...mostly put tier 3's on 5 that I really like to play. Bune for instance has a Freezing Ice Guard necklace, Earthgrab guard cloak, Innervation guard gloves, 2 Min2 rapiers, 1 Min2 bow...total scales used...27? my other toons are drones.

[Galacticus]

I suggest contact your guild leader. Many times they have extra scales that they would be more then happy to give to you, inorder to improve the overall quality of their guild.

Handee hooked me up last night...He is a selfless and inspirational guild leader. One of the best guild leaders that I have ever run with.

[Philam]

Handee hooked me up last night...He is a selfless and inspirational guild leader. One of the best guild leaders that I have ever run with.

/signed

[Lerincho]

Wow! I'm glad that the drop rate is balanced.

Suggestion for the DDO Store: Large Devil Scales

try 20 completions on 3 different characters without a single scale, yet watch over 50 pulled. then we can talk.

[Galacticus]

try 20 completions on 3 different characters without a single scale, yet watch over 50 pulled. then we can talk.

I feel your pain.

[baylensman]

DDO cast this week Devil scales will drop on the plane of shavaroth as well as in the shroud. So we will have multiple sources for them.

Interesting point about drop rates. I had no problem getting the 5 scales i need for dual sharding my tier three item. it was the large sulfur stones that i finally had to resort to the AH for! 26 runs and 1 large sulfur and every run was a completion so 4 possible drop points per quest

[Draccus]

DDO cast this week Devil scales will drop on the plane of shavaroth as well as in the shroud. So we will have multiple sources for them.

Interesting point about drop rates. I had no problem getting the 5 scales i need for dual sharding my tier three item. it was the large sulfur stones that i finally had to resort to the AH for! 26 runs and 1 large sulfur and every run was a completion so 4 possible drop points per quest

Actually it's 1.5 drop spots. The left hand (rest shrine side) chest in Part 5 will drop a large 100% of the time (but it could be a horn) and the right hand (rez shrine side) chest in Part 4 will drop a large about 50% of the time.

I've only run about 90 Shrouds but have never seen two larges drop from any one chest. It may be possible, but I haven't seen it in my few months of Shrouds.

[gserlenga]

I had a run of 16 Shrouds before I finally pulled a large scale at one point this spring. Then I pulled 3 in 2 runs last week. Random.

[Dragonaiser]

-edited-