Math and the New Raid mechanic

[Albel]

Ok so people have been complaining that it is less likely any given piece of Raid loot will drop with the new mechanic. I can prove mathematically that they are wrong.

First the ground rule, tomes count as seperate entries in the loot table, and all loot has equal wightings, this may not be the case but unless I see a Dev post claiming otherwise then I will believe it is true.

Learning the basics of probability is quite easy and this site here quickely tells you what you need to know. http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm

What I am doing below is calculating the current probability that any given piece of raid loot will drop for the current system using the method (described on the website above) of subtracting the number of unfavorable outcomes from the total possible outcomes.

Then I go to use simple staged probability to calculate the new mechanincs chances. ie given that you must first roll the 1 in 6 chance to get raid loot (1/6) THEN you must roll the correct one number out of the total number of possible raid loots (1/X) means that each individual gets (1/6) * (1/X) chance at a raid loot, and the group as a whole then multiplys the number of party members to that and gets the probability that any given piece of loot will drop.

Hopefully people understand what I am doing, if not look up probability examples tutorials etc on google and learn how.

First off the number of RAID loots from each raid counting each tome as a seperate entry etc is:

Dragon : 25
Reaver: 24
Demon Queen: 22
Titan: 22

And so that means:

Dragon:

Currently the probability is ((25*25) - (24*24))/(25*25) = 7.84%

New Mechanic: (1/6)*(1/25)*12= 8%



Reaver:

Currently the probability is ((24*24) - (23*23))/(24*24) = 8.16%

New Mechanic: (1/6)*(1/24)*12= 8.33%



Demon Queen and Titan:

Currently the probability is ((22*22) - (21*21))/(22*22) = 8.88%

New Mechanic: (1/6)*(1/22)*12= 9.09%



So what all this means is that in the new mechanic if you have a full group then the chance of a particular piece of loot appearing is actually greater than the old mechanic. Of course in the old mechanic you then randomly decided who got the loot, with the new mechanic someone receives it then can decide to give it away before picking it up if they don't want it.

Any questions or comments?

[Guildmaster_Kadish]

First off, you are assuming that the raid in question has 12 people in it.

I run raids extremely often (easily every raid once in a week) and it has been months since I've been on a raid with the full twelve people. Therefore, "it is less likely any given piece of Raid loot will drop with the new mechanic" than it is with the old mechanic when I raid.

Master Kadish

[Albel]

First off, you are assuming that the raid in question has 12 people in it.

I run raids extremely often (easily every raid once in a week) and it has been months since I've been on a raid with the full twelve people. Therefore, "it is less likely any given piece of Raid loot will drop with the new mechanic" than it is with the old mechanic when I raid.

Master Kadish

I never said that it would always be more likely, only that it would remain close if there was a full group or nearly a full group. Which is the whole motive behind the change in the mechanic anyways, to have raid raided by a full group.

[Cowdenicus]

I never said that it would always be more likely, only that it would remain close if there was a full group or nearly a full group. Which is the whole motive behind the change in the mechanic anyways, to have raid raided by a full group.

quote from a developer for that please.

[Guildmaster_Kadish]

I never said that it would always be more likely, only that it would remain close if there was a full group or nearly a full group. Which is the whole motive behind the change in the mechanic anyways, to have raid raided by a full group.

Thing is, the new raid loot system does not encourage a full raid... a 1/6 chance is a 1/6 chance no matter how many people are in the group.

Master Kadish

[Cowdenicus]

Thing is, the new raid loot system does not encourage a full raid... a 1/6 chance is a 1/6 chance no matter how many people are in the group.

Master Kadish

exactly.

[Ekental]

You also aren't factoring in a standard probability distribution. As we have a random sample here, its usually better to graph the spread than simply make a definitive % chance.

[Harbinder]

The first screenshot of four or five raid loots dropping should end this discussion.

[Ziggy]

The first screenshot of four or five raid loots dropping should end this discussion.

nah i think it will probably take 4-5 different screenshots before anyone stops complaining.

and for every 0-1 raid loot drop increase the number of screenshots needed by 6.

and even then people will complain.

[Ghoste]

This also assumes that there is only a single item from each raid that a person would potentially consider useful.

[Guildmaster_Kadish]

The first screenshot of four or five raid loots dropping should end this discussion.

...Have you looked at some of the breakdowns for chances of amount of raidloot dropping?

1 screenshot of 4-5 pieces of raid loot dropping will far from "end the discussion." Even in a 12-person raid, there is something like an 11% chance of NO raidloot dropping. And most raids don't have 12 people in them.
.................................................. .................................................. ................__
Even if everyone pulled a piece of raid loot in a raid... so what? The chance of that is .166^12. Overall, this change will lead to far less raidloot dropping, because a vast majority of raids have less than 12 people in them.

/shakes head in disgust.

Master Kadish

[Guildmaster_Kadish]

At first read I liked the Idea and then I did some maths OMFG what are you doing Turbine.

So we are going from a 100% chance of getting 2 items raid loot to

11.22% of getting nothing (full raid)
88.78% of getting 1 item (full raid)
61.87% of getting 2 items (full raid)

Yes i know its 1 in 6 great so I personally have a 16.67% chance of getting an item or 83.33% chance of bending over and taking a beating from the turbine nerf stick.
.
Lets look at the chance of everyone in the group pulling NO LOOT!
.

01 MAN RUN = 83.33%
02 MAN RUN = 69.44%
03 MAN RUN = 57.87%
04 MAN RUN = 48.23%
05 MAN RUN = 40.19%
06 MAN RUN = 33.49%
07 MAN RUN = 27.91%
08 MAN RUN = 23.26%
09 MAN RUN = 19.38%
10 MAN RUN = 16.15%
11 MAN RUN = 13.46%
12 MAN RUN = 11.22%
.
Now lets look at the chance of pulling at LEAST one item of raid loot.
.

01 MAN RUN = 16.67%
02 MAN RUN = 30.56%
03 MAN RUN = 42.13%
04 MAN RUN = 51.77%
05 MAN RUN = 59.81%
06 MAN RUN = 66.51%
07 MAN RUN = 72.09%
08 MAN RUN = 76.74%
09 MAN RUN = 80.62%
10 MAN RUN = 83.85%
11 MAN RUN = 86.54%
12 MAN RUN = 88.78%
.
Now lets look at the chance of pull at LEAST two items of raid loot.
.

01 MAN RUN = 00.00%
02 MAN RUN = 02.78%
03 MAN RUN = 07.41%
04 MAN RUN = 13.19%
05 MAN RUN = 19.62%
06 MAN RUN = 26.32%
07 MAN RUN = 33.02%
08 MAN RUN = 39.53%
09 MAN RUN = 45.73%
10 MAN RUN = 51.55%
11 MAN RUN = 56.93%
12 MAN RUN = 61.87%
.

Lets loot at the chance of pulling multiple items for a 12 man raid
(# Items@Percentage Chance)
.
00 @ 11.22%
01 @ 88.78%
02 @ 61.87%
03 @ 32.26%
04 @ 12.52%
05 @ 03.64%
06 @ 00.79%
07 @ 00.13%
08 @ 00.02%
09 @ 00.00% (7/515090)
10 @ 00.00% (1/1048576)
11 @ 00.00% (1/8388608)
12 @ 00.00% (1/8388608)

Or even a six man raid
(# Items@Percentage Chance)

00 @ 33.49%
01 @ 66.51%
02 @ 26.32%
03 @ 06.23%
04 @ 00.87%
05 @ 00.07%
06 @ 00.00% (10/463459)
.
.
*Please feel free to let me know of any mistakes in the above more than happy to fix..
** Please note all figures are subject to my own stupidity...
*** Also most figures are AT LEAST not EXACTLY x Items!!!

This probably sums up the odds the best.

[Uska]

Thing is, the new raid loot system does not encourage a full raid... a 1/6 chance is a 1/6 chance no matter how many people are in the group.

Master Kadish

Yes it does more people=more of a chance for more items and unless they are all greedy and idiots most people would let stuff go they already have or cant use.

[Uska]

...Have you looked at some of the breakdowns for chances of amount of raidloot dropping?

1 screenshot of 4-5 pieces of raid loot dropping will far from "end the discussion." Even in a 12-person raid, there is something like an 11% chance of NO raidloot dropping. And most raids don't have 12 people in them.
.................................................. .................................................. ................__
Even if everyone pulled a piece of raid loot in a raid... so what? The chance of that is .166^12. Overall, this change will lead to far less raidloot dropping, because a vast majority of raids have less than 12 people in them.

/shakes head in disgust.

Master Kadish

And how is less raid loot being around a bad thing? it is to common and never should have happened should have made the raids harder as it is never should have been possible for a 1 or 2 man raid.

[Ghoste]

Yes it does more people=more of a chance for more items and unless they are all greedy and idiots most people would let stuff go they already have or cant use.

Yes and no. More people does, as you say, equal more chance to get useful stuff, but it also equals more time to organize, more worries about people not doing their part, etc.

[Guildmaster_Kadish]

And how is less raid loot being around a bad thing? it is to common and never should have happened should have made the raids harder as it is never should have been possible for a 1 or 2 man raid.

Now that is an opinion that I just can't agree with... if that is how you feel, fine, support the system. Opinions are opinions, there is no way to refute them.

[Guildmaster_Kadish]

Yes it does more people=more of a chance for more items and unless they are all greedy and idiots most people would let stuff go they already have or cant use.

More chance for more items with more people wanting them != greater chance for getting the loot you want. Unless what you want is something no one in the 6+ extra people you brought along wants.

Therefore... this change doesn't encourage larger groups (in general).

[Harbinder]

1 screenshot of 4-5 pieces of raid loot dropping will far from "end the discussion." Even in a 12-person raid, there is something like an 11% chance of NO raidloot dropping. And most raids don't have 12 people in them.

Master Kadish

True, I'm just trying to think positive. I hate math I don't even know why I joined this discussion.

The posts about full raids getting 0-1 pieces of loot will compare about evenly to the ones dropping 4-5 pieces, I imagine (thinking positive).

Also, there is this, then I'll try to say no more:

After the next level-up, I'm sure anyone of us with moderate gear could solo or duo an "old raid", at level 16+. With the loot they haul out at that point - maybe - keeping the powerful stuff level 16+ rare indded isn't such a BAD THING AFTER ALL.

Who knows?

~Harb

[Dragonhyde]

I still do not believe that the issue of how many people run a raid was anything but a side effect of the change. Most likely it was to keep people searching for that one item they want...probably more needed now that other sought after nonraid loot is falling more often in high end chests.

Raids will most likely continue as usual, in that if you ran lowman by choice for the fun of it then you still will. Guild groups will still only invite people they trust. Hopefully though groups that ran lowman because they could not fill a group will not have too after the change but who knows.

[Helmet]

the op math is like a 12 year old looking into a high school math text.

a very smart 12 year old gets alot of it, but misses a critical piont.

the 12 in your equation is supposed to be a varible, not a constant, end of discusion, your math sucks.

There will be less loot, period. therefore there will be less of each piece of loot.
Simple logic, no?