The truth about the New Raid loot system

[Cowdenicus]

Im too darn lazy to retype everyone that techno came up with so ill just quote it.

Aye, can they say PWNED....

[Prinstoni]

Im too darn lazy to retype everyone that techno came up with so ill just quote it.

I asked a former professor of mine about this because I saw that post and it kind of made sense.

The problem with the math he did is that he only added to the number of events and not outcomes which is incorrrect (which cause the % chance of getting named loot to increase).

For example, If you roll a 1d6 1 time or 100 the outcome is the same for getting a 1. 1 in 6. If you roll it 100 times probabilty says you will have 16 out of 100 that come up with a 1. Therefore the probability of 1-6 does not change regardless of number of times you roll it because each event is based upon a singular occurance 1-6.

His math is incorrect because P is already set. 1-6, the devs set that. If you change the number of events you have to change the number of outcomes by the same number hence the P always remains constant.

Let me explain in algabraic terms.

X= Y/N

For this statement to be true anything you change on one side has to be changed equally on all sides.

If X = 12, Y = 24, and N = 2, X is true. With the formulay that he used (which is correct), you have to use the same logic as algebra.

The only difference in this case is that the formula is P = NO/NE

Which in this case is P= 1/6 or 1/6 = 2/12, 3/36. 4/48/ etc...

So again the probability doesn't change and the likelyhood of occurance for each event still only averages about 16% (16.66% or 1-6).

[negative]

Aye, can they say PWNED....

Actually, looking at that tool, all it says is that the more people you bring, the higher the odds of recieving more than one item. But, if all the elitists are right, in that it takes mathematically significantly longer to complete the raid in a 12 man group versus a 4 or 2 man group, then when you run the numbers on a time spent vs. reward, you'll probably find that it evens out.

While the 12 man group is still running the raid, the 4 man group is out running POP elite already.

[Cowdenicus]

Probability of a named item dropping in raid group with 12 people in raid at
1:6 (approximates)

0 - 11%
1 - 27%
2 - 29%
3 - 19.5%
4 - 9%
5 - 3%
6 - 1%
7 or more < 1%

[Ziggy]

I asked a former professor of mine about this because I saw that post and it kind of made sense.

The problem with the math he did is that he only added to the number of events and not outcomes which is incorrrect (which cause the % chance of getting named loot to increase).

For example, If you roll a 1d6 1 time or 100 the outcome is the same for getting a 1. 1 in 6. If you roll it 100 times probabilty says you will have 16 out of 100 that come up with a 1. Therefore the probability of 1-6 does not change regardless of number of times you roll it because each event is based upon a singular occurance 1-6.

His math is incorrect because P is already set. 1-6, the devs set that. If you change the number of events you have to change the number of outcomes by the same number hence the P always remains constant.

Let me explain in algabraic terms.

X= Y/N

For this statement to be true anything you change on one side has to be changed equally on all sides.

If X = 12, Y = 24, and N = 2, X is true. With the formulay that he used (which is correct), you have to use the same logic as algebra.

The only difference in this case is that the formula is P = NO/NE

Which in this case is P= 1/6 or 1/6 = 2/12, 3/36. 4/48/ etc...

So again the probability doesn't change and the likelyhood of occurance for each event still only averages about 16% (16.66% or 1-6).

and what happens if you roll 12 d6 at the same time? Its been awhile since ive done probability but im pretty sure the chances are better to get 2 6's(hence getting more raid loot.)

Yes the ability to get a 6(or a 1, whichever you prefer) is ~16%, however you have other people rolling as well. you arent just rolling 1 dice, you are now rolling anywhere from 2-12 dice together.

If you are rolling 2 dice and looking for a pair of 6's you dont have 1/6 of a chance, you have 1/36 of a chance.

and if you are rolling 12 dice and hoping for a pair of 6's, you have an even better chance then rolling 2 dice for a pair.

[Ziggy]

ok. lets think of it this way.

In a 2 man raid, in order for both parties to get an item, they basically need to roll a pair of 6's.

and to get a pair of 6's you have a 1/36 chance
which is a 2.77777778 percent chance of happening.

now using the tool
http://rockem.stat.sc.edu/prototype/...?dist=Binomial

using n=2, p=.1667, and x=2(meaning both people got raid loot), you have a .0278 chance of getting raid loot.(2.777778%)

[Cinwulf]

Probability of a named item dropping in raid group with 12 people in raid at
1:6 (approximates)

0 - 11%
1 - 27%
2 - 29%
3 - 19.5%
4 - 9%
5 - 3%
6 - 1%
7 or more < 1%

I believe this is correct; almost the exact figures a guildie concluded for a 12 man raid. Also the less people the greater the chance of getting less than 2 raid items.

[Cowdenicus]

ok. lets think of it this way.

In a 2 man raid, in order for both parties to get an item, they basically need to roll a pair of 6's.

and to get a pair of 6's you have a 1/36 chance
which is a 2.77777778 percent chance of happening.

now using the tool
http://rockem.stat.sc.edu/prototype/...?dist=Binomial

using n=2, p=.1667, and x=2(meaning both people got raid loot), you have a .0278 chance of getting raid loot.(2.777778%)

sounds accurate.

[Cowdenicus]

I believe this is correct; almost the exact figures a guildie concluded for a 12 man raid. Also the less people the greater the chance of getting less than 2 raid items.

it shifts downward pretty quick with less than 10 peeps.

[Cinwulf]

it shifts downward pretty quick with less than 10 peeps.

yeah, his figures showed on a 9 man raid 54% chance of less than 2 raid items, and on a 6 man raid 74% chance of less than 2 raid items.

[Cowdenicus]

thank god....

i thought i was gonna have to argue this by myself.

Glad someone got it.

I am an accountant (in training) what can I say. Loot here is equivalent to cash in the real world, I better know my stuff.

OH SNAP

/Ziggy Ninja.

I got mad skillz today.

[Ziggy]

sounds accurate.

thank god....

i thought i was gonna have to argue this by myself.

Glad someone got it.

[Prinstoni]

Notice I said each person has the same probability. However, as a group I could be wrong because 16 people in 100 would get the loot. I'm confused. Let me check again.

I could be wrong and you could be right.

Don't quote me on that lol.

I just sent my former econometrics professor and statisctics professor the problem.

I am confused now... And actually I don't care anymore and it doesn't matter because the devs never pay attention to us anyway.

[Ziggy]

Notice I said each person has the same probability. However, as a group I could be wrong because 16 people in 100 would get the loot. I'm confused. Let me check again.

I could be wrong and you could be right.

Don't quote me on that lol.

too late.

[Prinstoni]

too late.

hehe....

[Conejo]

Thats why I didnt say anything this time

my mouth bleeds far too often due to these forums.

[Ziggy]

my mouth bleeds far too often due to these forums.

dude your not supposed to eat your monitor.

[HumanRogue]

I think both arguments here are correct but the problem is that you are explaining different things. The OP appears to be explaining that YOUR odds of pulling some named loot are never better than 1/6 (Run the raid 6 times, get one piece of loot). Other posters are showing that if you have more people in the party (12 people to be exact), the PARTY's odds of pulling at least 2 pieces of named loot are better than 1/6.
The problem that I see is that your personal odds of pulling named loot still doesn't get better than 1/6. Personally, I don't think that people who run small groups through the raids will PUG out to fill up because it doesn't benefit them. How does it help them if they can 2 man the reaver but decide to fill up the party to 12 people? Their chances of pulling named loot are the same (1/6). Sure the party may pull more named loot, but the individual doesn't.

[Conejo]

Actually, looking at that tool, all it says is that the more people you bring, the higher the odds of recieving more than one item. But, if all the elitists are right, in that it takes mathematically significantly longer to complete the raid in a 12 man group versus a 4 or 2 man group, then when you run the numbers on a time spent vs. reward, you'll probably find that it evens out.

While the 12 man group is still running the raid, the 4 man group is out running POP elite already.

but since everyone has the same re-raid timers, those extra few hours don't matter as much.

[HumanRogue]

You're right, they just changed the raid loot system so that you can actually get more than two items on a whim. They never listen to their players...

Also changed it so you can get none... (Although you sometimes get none with the current setup anyways but now you might get none more often)




NINJA