Weekly Dev Activities: 7/30/07

[Vinos]

So you're fine punishing people who group with more people?

Old system:
Solo a raid you get 2 items.
Do a raid with a full group you get 1/6th of an item.

That sounds like a punishment. The new system, on the other hand, treats all groups equally. Everyone gets 1/6th of an item, regardless of how many people they have in their group.

you don't get 1/6th of an item. you have an 84% chance of watching someone else get your 1/6th. At least in the old system everyone had a fair shot at something.

[Morgoth_the_Enemy]

This is exactly why it encourages guild runs even more and discourages pug groups.

I'm glad you quoted this as I nearly missed his awkward response.

But, to date. I have no raid loot. Now at least, I have a chance to get some every time, and I can be certain that there is something for me in that big chest next to the dragon.

Your chances to get raid loot are either at best the same, or worse than before. Your chance to get some filler item has gone up dramatically though. Yay!

Yes. I'm sure this hurts those 4 man guilds who raid and raid and never invite anyone else.......but I'm not a part of them.....so.....I see it as helping me, and anyone else who isn't in your click or fave five or whatever.

This seems fairly self-centered, to be honest. At least you aren't being hyprocritical about it and calling anyone else greedy or anything though.

From most of these posts, many of you just look very greedy to me.
But I guess that is why I'm not in your guilds.......I probably wasn't in your college fraternity either.

[MysticTheurge]

At least in the old system everyone had a fair shot at something.

No, that's precisely the point. Your shot at something wasn't fair.

In a full raid group your shot at something was significantly smaller than it was in a smaller raid group. Under the new system, everyone has the same shot at something.

[crimsonretribution]

What if it went like this:

12 people: 1/6 chance to get loot for everyone
10 people: 1/5 chance to get loot for everyone
8 people: 1/4 chance to get loot
etc

That way you will still statistically get 2 drops per raid no matter what the size of the group is, and it encourages smaller groups because they will be more likely to get loot themselves.

[Jaysensen]

I think many people are looking at the loot chances incorrectly.

The reality of PUGs (NOT guild or friend runs) is that people do some sort of need before greed rolling. If you are considering small groups, completely ignore this past as you have a different set of problems.

In the scenario of Need b4 Greed in a PUG as of right now, you arent rolling on an item against 12 people or however many are there. Your chance is absolutely NOT 2/(# PPL in Raid). You are rolling against people in the "need" category for that item. While the definition of Need is up for grabs, it is more correlated to the raid leader's choice of bodies (or lack thereof).

It is 2 item chances times % of your item dropping rolling against X number of "Need" people in this scenario. One roll against the loot table. One roll against people.


In the new system, it is your personal 1/6 chance of generating an item at all. You could get lucky and roll a raid item. But be unlucky when you roll a Prophecy Necklace, Tenderizer, Nullcloth Gown, or my favorite, Marilith Chain. Two rolls against the loot table.


Big Difference.

[Turial]

In order to alleviate inventory clutter by collectables and gems, players will now be able to use a new object known as the “collectable bag” and “gem bag”. Small, medium and large versions of both are available. The small version will be awarded to those who complete, or who have already completed the low level intro quests. Medium bags are for sale at vendors, and large bags will be rare treasure. Each bag will occupy one inventory slot, while holding a number of gems or collectables depending on it’s size

So does this mean that we may eventually get quivers that will hold arrows, bolts, and the like, rather then filling pages with ammo?

[Wulf_Ratbane]

The change promotes raid pugging. Which means you should be able to get into more of them.

In the unlikely event that this new system causes you to do raids you didn't before, it will be because other players are using you as a tool to get more pulls of items they want.

Hmm. No, I've thought about it. It's not going to improve the PUG situation any.

Each man has a 1 in 6 chance of getting raid loot. Having more people along doesn't improve your chances one bit.

(It does improve your chances of "seeing loot drop" but you'll probably just be waving goodbye to it.)

So... the new loot mechanic... Yeah, HUGE nerf.

Pretty terrible decision, particularly with respect to retention. A whole lot of folks are going to have a pretty miserable experience piled onto what limited gameplay they still had left to look forward to.

[Lorien_the_First_One]

What if it went like this:

12 people: 1/6 chance to get loot for everyone
10 people: 1/5 chance to get loot for everyone
8 people: 1/4 chance to get loot
etc

That way you will still statistically get 2 drops per raid no matter what the size of the group is, and it encourages smaller groups because they will be more likely to get loot themselves.

Except I think the point is they want to encourage larger groups.

The power gamers don't keep this game alive, the casual ones do. Power gamers suck CPU cycles as they grind the game to death. For the same monthly fee the casual gamer only burns a few hours per month on the system. Turbine needs a good number of casual gamers and casual gamers do not 2 man anything. They have neither the experience nor time to find the uber loot to make that possible. They also don't grind the same quest 10000 time to get the items they want.

Larger groups is better for the casual and regular gamers. Power gamers will never be happy anyway so no biggie.

*Raises tower shield* Ok...fire at will...

[Lorien_the_First_One]

Hmm. No, I've thought about it. It's not going to improve the PUG situation any.

Each man has a 1 in 6 chance of getting raid loot. Having more people along doesn't improve your chances one bit.

(It does improve your chances of "seeing loot drop" but you'll probably just be waving goodbye to it.)

So... the new loot mechanic... Yeah, HUGE nerf.

Pretty terrible decision, particularly with respect to retention. A whole lot of folks are going to have a pretty miserable experience piled onto what limited gameplay they still had left to look forward to.

What it means is it no longer hurts you to bring extra people. The old way if you could do it with 2 you had guarenteed loot. 12 meant your chances were slim. Now 2 or 12 is all the same chance so why not bring more?

I think the ppl who see themselves as uber will continue to 2 man it but maybe the 6 man groups will decide there is no point in not bringing some help and making it easier.

[amysrevenge]

Whew! 15 pages... I didn't think I'd ever see the end of it.

I approve of this change to raid loot. I will gladly give up any item I can't use to someone who can use it. I very much like the idea of increasing the odds at higher difficulties. Maybe if 1/6, 1/5, 1/4 (16.6%, 20%, 25%) is too much, then use 16.6%, 17.6%, 18.6%, or something. At least a small increase in the chances would make it worthwhile.

The metamagic thing is unfortunate for paladins and rangers and I don't like it. Sure, it works fine for primary casters, but I'll likely swap out Extend on my pally.

The gem/collectible bag thing is irrelevant - I'll still leave rocks in the chest and collectibles on the floor (until they improve the returns by a factor of about 20).

If you apply the standard rules to figure out how the players as a whole will feel about the raid loot change:

take the ratio from the forums of approval:disapproval (in this thread, I'd say it is about 1:10), and multiply by the "people will complain on the forums about 100 times more often than they will compliment" factor

It looks like people will be happy by a factor of about 10:1.

lol

Mike

[jaitee]

Hmm. No, I've thought about it. It's not going to improve the PUG situation any.

Each man has a 1 in 6 chance of getting raid loot. Having more people along doesn't improve your chances one bit.

(It does improve your chances of "seeing loot drop" but you'll probably just be waving goodbye to it.)

So... the new loot mechanic... Yeah, HUGE nerf.

Pretty terrible decision, particularly with respect to retention. A whole lot of folks are going to have a pretty miserable experience piled onto what limited gameplay they still had left to look forward to.

we are looking at it from a whole group ratio, in a 6 man group from the ratio 1/6, well if you think about how they had set up this new raid loot system its still only a chance at 2 items, now 1/6 = a 16% that the group as a whole of 6 members will more likely pull 1 item, now from a 12 man group, 2/12 = 2, bringing 12 members will increase your chance of getting 2 items

now the issue is, its not guaranteed anymore you will get a raid item, its a 16% you will and a 84% you wont, so more like from a 12 man group 2 items has a higher chance of dropping, and maybe decide where the loot goes, but as every person gets a chance at loot, luck comes into play, some people might get lucky, but the ratio of the set up still only relates to 2 items almost being at a 96% chance of dropping

as of the old system, their is 100% chance of 2 items
and this system means you are not guaranteed anything, your 12 man group could finish to a empty chest, with no raid loot

[Shmuel]

Let me just add myself to the list of people that really do not like the new raid loot system idea. Please reconsider this. If people are finding what some consider exploits (not gonna mention any specific ones) that allow them to solo or duo raids and want to discourage this, just tweak the raid a little to make that "exploit" unfeasible (I can think of one easy one). Personally, I prefer to do raid with smaller groups, because there is a small group of people I enjoy playing with and adding random folks to the mix usually makes the experience less, rather than more enjoyable.

Also- smaller groups make the encounters tougher and more of an achievement, which is especially necessary considering how quickly (for some of us) the new material quickly becomes old.

What this says to me is that if myself and 2 friends work out a way to complete a raid with 3 people and great difficulty, we now have only a 50/50 shot of getting ANY raid loot at all, rather then the two items our intense efforts (and likely significant expense) would have gotten before. Hence we wont do this, and just run the same quests again over and over, or do the raids with 12 people and be bored to tears with how easy it is on elite. I know I'm not the only one who will consider this really decreasing the enjoyment of the game. Please consider another option or table this one. Maybe allow people to toggle between this "new" raid loot system (which I agree may be better for pugs) and the old one, much as we can now toggle between traditional and random loot for who can pick up the stones that unlock the warded items.

This does to raid loot what eliminating static loot did to long quest chains- makes them into dull grinds that are no longer worth the effort. (I really didn't enjoy running Deleras 8 times so my UMD bard could get that golden cartouche. Didn't enjoy it at all.) Please do not do this!

[Tija]

At first read I liked the Idea and then I did some maths OMFG what are you doing Turbine.

So we are going from a 100% chance of getting 2 items raid loot to

11.22% of getting nothing (full raid)
88.78% of getting 1 item (full raid)
61.87% of getting 2 items (full raid)

Yes i know its 1 in 6 great so I personally have a 16.67% chance of getting an item or 83.33% chance of bending over and taking a beating from the turbine nerf stick.
.
Lets look at the chance of everyone in the group pulling NO LOOT!
.

01 MAN RUN = 83.33%
02 MAN RUN = 69.44%
03 MAN RUN = 57.87%
04 MAN RUN = 48.23%
05 MAN RUN = 40.19%
06 MAN RUN = 33.49%
07 MAN RUN = 27.91%
08 MAN RUN = 23.26%
09 MAN RUN = 19.38%
10 MAN RUN = 16.15%
11 MAN RUN = 13.46%
12 MAN RUN = 11.22%
.
Now lets look at the chance of pulling at LEAST one item of raid loot.
.

01 MAN RUN = 16.67%
02 MAN RUN = 30.56%
03 MAN RUN = 42.13%
04 MAN RUN = 51.77%
05 MAN RUN = 59.81%
06 MAN RUN = 66.51%
07 MAN RUN = 72.09%
08 MAN RUN = 76.74%
09 MAN RUN = 80.62%
10 MAN RUN = 83.85%
11 MAN RUN = 86.54%
12 MAN RUN = 88.78%
.
Now lets look at the chance of pull at LEAST two items of raid loot.
.

01 MAN RUN = 00.00%
02 MAN RUN = 02.78%
03 MAN RUN = 07.41%
04 MAN RUN = 13.19%
05 MAN RUN = 19.62%
06 MAN RUN = 26.32%
07 MAN RUN = 33.02%
08 MAN RUN = 39.53%
09 MAN RUN = 45.73%
10 MAN RUN = 51.55%
11 MAN RUN = 56.93%
12 MAN RUN = 61.87%
.

Lets loot at the chance of pulling multiple items for a 12 man raid
(# Items@Percentage Chance)
.
00 @ 11.22%
01 @ 88.78%
02 @ 61.87%
03 @ 32.26%
04 @ 12.52%
05 @ 03.64%
06 @ 00.79%
07 @ 00.13%
08 @ 00.02%
09 @ 00.00% (7/515090)
10 @ 00.00% (1/1048576)
11 @ 00.00% (1/8388608)
12 @ 00.00% (1/8388608)

Or even a six man raid
(# Items@Percentage Chance)

00 @ 33.49%
01 @ 66.51%
02 @ 26.32%
03 @ 06.23%
04 @ 00.87%
05 @ 00.07%
06 @ 00.00% (10/463459)
.
.
*Please feel free to let me know of any mistakes in the above more than happy to fix..
** Please note all figures are subject to my own stupidity...
*** Also most figures are AT LEAST not EXACTLY x Items!!!

[jaitee]

At first read I liked the Idea and then I did some maths OMFG what are you doing Turbine.

So we are going from a 100% chance of getting 2 items raid loot to

11.22% of getting nothing (full raid)
88.78% of getting 1 item (full raid)
61.87% of getting 2 items (full raid)

Yes i know its 1 in 6 great so I personally have a 16.67% chance of getting an item or 83.33% chance of bending over and taking a beating from the turbine nerf stick.
.
Lets look at the chance of everyone in the group pulling NO LOOT!
.

01 MAN RUN = 83.33%
02 MAN RUN = 69.44%
03 MAN RUN = 57.87%
04 MAN RUN = 48.23%
05 MAN RUN = 40.19%
06 MAN RUN = 33.49%
07 MAN RUN = 27.91%
08 MAN RUN = 23.26%
09 MAN RUN = 19.38%
10 MAN RUN = 16.15%
11 MAN RUN = 13.46%
12 MAN RUN = 11.22%
.
Now lets look at the chance of pulling at LEAST one item of raid loot.
.

01 MAN RUN = 16.67%
02 MAN RUN = 30.56%
03 MAN RUN = 42.13%
04 MAN RUN = 51.77%
05 MAN RUN = 59.81%
06 MAN RUN = 66.51%
07 MAN RUN = 72.09%
08 MAN RUN = 76.74%
09 MAN RUN = 80.62%
10 MAN RUN = 83.85%
11 MAN RUN = 86.54%
12 MAN RUN = 88.78%
.
Now lets look at the chance of pull at LEAST two items of raid loot.
.

01 MAN RUN = 00.00%
02 MAN RUN = 02.78%
03 MAN RUN = 07.41%
04 MAN RUN = 13.19%
05 MAN RUN = 19.62%
06 MAN RUN = 26.32%
07 MAN RUN = 33.02%
08 MAN RUN = 39.53%
09 MAN RUN = 45.73%
10 MAN RUN = 51.55%
11 MAN RUN = 56.93%
12 MAN RUN = 61.87%
.

Lets loot at the chance of pulling multiple items for a 12 man raid
(# Items@Percentage Chance)
.
00 @ 11.22%
01 @ 88.78%
02 @ 61.87%
03 @ 32.26%
04 @ 12.52%
05 @ 03.64%
06 @ 00.79%
07 @ 00.13%
08 @ 00.02%
09 @ 00.00% (7/515090)
10 @ 00.00% (1/1048576)
11 @ 00.00% (1/8388608)
12 @ 00.00% (1/8388608)

Or even a six man raid
(# Items@Percentage Chance)

00 @ 33.49%
01 @ 66.51%
02 @ 26.32%
03 @ 06.23%
04 @ 00.87%
05 @ 00.07%
06 @ 00.00% (10/463459)
.
.
*Please feel free to let me know of any mistakes in the above more than happy to fix..
** Please note all figures are subject to my own stupidity...
*** Also most figures are AT LEAST not EXACTLY x Items!!!

wow you did alot of work, and i thought my work i did was great...lol
its a FLAWED system, in my opinion, about the new raid loot system

[Tija]

wow you did alot of work, and i thought my work i did was great...lol
its a FLAWED system, in my opinion, about the new raid loot system

I'm at work what else am I going to do

[jaitee]

I'm at work what else am I going to do

dunno.

[Stanley_Nicholas]

This new raid loot mechanic strongly discourages me from considering joining a pug raid.

Though what I find most appalling about it is:
There is a significant chance that even in a 12 person raid, zero pieces of raid loot will drop. This is just plain wrong.

The current glyph mechanic is much superior in terms of fairness.

[Drith]

Turbine Take a real close look at this.

If I so much as do a single raid after this chance with 12 people and 2 items do not drop, consider my subscription canceled.

This will be the first time in 10 years of MMORPG playing that I've ever seen a succesfull raid filled to maximum capacity of players not get a single reward for their efforts.

*** were you guys thinking ?

At first read I liked the Idea and then I did some maths OMFG what are you doing Turbine.

So we are going from a 100% chance of getting 2 items raid loot to

11.22% of getting nothing (full raid)
88.78% of getting 1 item (full raid)
61.87% of getting 2 items (full raid)

Yes i know its 1 in 6 great so I personally have a 16.67% chance of getting an item or 83.33% chance of bending over and taking a beating from the turbine nerf stick.
.
Lets look at the chance of everyone in the group pulling NO LOOT!
.

01 MAN RUN = 83.33%
02 MAN RUN = 69.44%
03 MAN RUN = 57.87%
04 MAN RUN = 48.23%
05 MAN RUN = 40.19%
06 MAN RUN = 33.49%
07 MAN RUN = 27.91%
08 MAN RUN = 23.26%
09 MAN RUN = 19.38%
10 MAN RUN = 16.15%
11 MAN RUN = 13.46%
12 MAN RUN = 11.22%
.
Now lets look at the chance of pulling at LEAST one item of raid loot.
.

01 MAN RUN = 16.67%
02 MAN RUN = 30.56%
03 MAN RUN = 42.13%
04 MAN RUN = 51.77%
05 MAN RUN = 59.81%
06 MAN RUN = 66.51%
07 MAN RUN = 72.09%
08 MAN RUN = 76.74%
09 MAN RUN = 80.62%
10 MAN RUN = 83.85%
11 MAN RUN = 86.54%
12 MAN RUN = 88.78%
.
Now lets look at the chance of pull at LEAST two items of raid loot.
.

01 MAN RUN = 00.00%
02 MAN RUN = 02.78%
03 MAN RUN = 07.41%
04 MAN RUN = 13.19%
05 MAN RUN = 19.62%
06 MAN RUN = 26.32%
07 MAN RUN = 33.02%
08 MAN RUN = 39.53%
09 MAN RUN = 45.73%
10 MAN RUN = 51.55%
11 MAN RUN = 56.93%
12 MAN RUN = 61.87%
.

Lets loot at the chance of pulling multiple items for a 12 man raid
(# Items@Percentage Chance)
.
00 @ 11.22%
01 @ 88.78%
02 @ 61.87%
03 @ 32.26%
04 @ 12.52%
05 @ 03.64%
06 @ 00.79%
07 @ 00.13%
08 @ 00.02%
09 @ 00.00% (7/515090)
10 @ 00.00% (1/1048576)
11 @ 00.00% (1/8388608)
12 @ 00.00% (1/8388608)

Or even a six man raid
(# Items@Percentage Chance)

00 @ 33.49%
01 @ 66.51%
02 @ 26.32%
03 @ 06.23%
04 @ 00.87%
05 @ 00.07%
06 @ 00.00% (10/463459)
.
.
*Please feel free to let me know of any mistakes in the above more than happy to fix..
** Please note all figures are subject to my own stupidity...
*** Also most figures are AT LEAST not EXACTLY x Items!!!

[Vinos]

No, that's precisely the point. Your shot at something wasn't fair.

In a full raid group your shot at something was significantly smaller than it was in a smaller raid group. Under the new system, everyone has the same shot at something.

Jaysensen answered better than I can.

[Krell]

I like it. If I join a pug I don't have to worry about the integrity of the leader. No one decides after the quest is over what classes should have which item. Also it will be easier to get into pug raids since there is no loot advantage to keeping it small. Good work.