The Festival of Olladra comes to Stormreach!

[Mad_Bombardier]

I used that format but I had to put a character in the body of the message to make it send - would that have disqualified me?

Nope, I clarified that in post #2 and Quarion added the note to the main message.

[dinin_darkblade]

there is a raid item (seven fingered gloves) that give +5 umd from warforged titan raid.

[Quazi]

got it

[Sir_Lawrence]

Know what my favorite number in any odds game is? The "1". No matter what the odds are, you can never win - unless you play. So that "1 in 4,000" chance of being the one? Well, that "1" could be you! I'm a big fan of being that "1" instead of the "4,000".

[Spookydodger]

I submitted 2 entries we have 1 account wife 2 sets of characters, my wife and I but only one forum name. I am not sure why it is set up like this but she has her set of characters and I have mine. Will one of our entries be deleted?

I would imagine that yes, it would be deleted. They really have no way of knowing if your account is really played by 2 people, or just 1 and you're full of balogna

Then it would also open the flood gates for someone who says their family of 16 plays their characters.

I'm sure something could be said that the account still technically is owned by one person, regardless of how many people play it, and only that person is entitled, by the rules, to a chance to win.

[FlyinS]

Nope, I clarified that in post #2 and Quarion added the note to the main message.

Ok saw that now, then it begs the question of how to know if my PM got disqualified or not. Subject line was done as asked, just repeated exactly the same in the body of the message. I would hope that's ok, but who knows.

[Tehran_Adinson]

LOL...you want me to roll and match 4 numbers to yours to win a prize. With my luck on rolls I couldn't roll a 1 on a 1 sided die.

[Merlask]

LOL...you want me to roll and match 4 numbers to yours to win a prize. With my luck on rolls I couldn't roll a 1 on a 1 sided die.

Heh it's ok Tehran... I was joking the other night with a guildie that she flipped a quarter and failed ... don't get too discouraged. You have to do that whole lucky dice rain-dance thing *glares at her d20 sitting on her desk that was not playing nicely last night*

[HumanJHawkins]

<CUT>EDIT: As pointed out by Tyrande below, this calculation is for the best case odds: when the player chooses four unique numbers. Odds of winning are lower if the player chooses some numbers to repeat.

I didn't read the 4 pages of replies that might have already said this, but is the above statement based on a bug in the code, or are you misunderstanding the math?

In a pure random roll, the odds of getting 1, 1, 1, 1 (or 50, 50, 50, 50, etc) are exactly the same as getting any other series of numbers. The reason humans tend to assume otherwise is because 1, 1, 1, 1 is memorable wheras 22, 54,39, 12 is not. So, because you never see 1, 1, 1, 1 come up, you are inclined to believe it is less common.

However, if you were to burn any other series of numbers in your memory and focus on them (22, 54,39, 12 for example), you would find that it too, never comes up.

[SneakThief]

I would imagine that yes, it would be deleted. They really have no way of knowing if your account is really played by 2 people, or just 1 and you're full of balogna

Then it would also open the flood gates for someone who says their family of 16 plays their characters.

I'm sure something could be said that the account still technically is owned by one person, regardless of how many people play it, and only that person is entitled, by the rules, to a chance to win.

It sounded to me like he pays for 2 accounts. Depending on how you sign up, these can be under the same login as sub-accounts. I would hope, if he pays for 2 accounts they would allow him 2 entries.

[slothman911]

This is just a reminder because I have already deleted over a dozen entries that forgot to follow this rule of the event. If you think you were one of these people, please submit a new entry if you want to try to win. I like seeing everyone have get a fair chance and not lose theirs because they sent their entry incorrectly.

How about letting people know if you deleted their entry?

[Xierin]

Some of the New Kargon's Tasty Hams would work quite nicely too. Or maybe Kargon and Cupcake's lovechild, Tasty Hamcakes.

Let me tell you about the time my Hubby sold 5 Kargon's Tastey ham for 2.65 Mil gold ....

No I'm not kidding, he has a SS

[Inkblack]

I didn't read the 4 pages of replies that might have already said this, but is the above statement based on a bug in the code, or are you misunderstanding the math?

In a pure random roll, the odds of getting 1, 1, 1, 1 (or 50, 50, 50, 50, etc) are exactly the same as getting any other series of numbers. The reason humans tend to assume otherwise is because 1, 1, 1, 1 is memorable wheras 22, 54,39, 12 is not. So, because you never see 1, 1, 1, 1 come up, you are inclined to believe it is less common.

However, if you were to burn any other series of numbers in your memory and focus on them (22, 54,39, 12 for example), you would find that it too, never comes up.

Picking numbers to repeat lowers your odds of winning as long as order of numbers chosen is not important. Compare two guesses: 1, 1, 1, 1, and 1, 2, 3, 4.

Grand Prize:

For 1, 1, 1, 1 guess:

Odds first roll is correct: (1/20) -- it has to be a 1
Odds second roll is correct: (1/20)
Odds third roll is correct: (1/20)
Odds last roll is correct: (1/20)

Odds all four are correct: [(1/20) * (1/20) * (1/20) * (1/20)] = 1 in 160,000

For 1, 2, 3, 4 guess:

Odds first roll is correct: (4/20) -- can be 1, 2, 3, or 4
Odds second roll is correct: (3/20) -- can be any of the 3 remaining
Odds third roll is correct: (2/20)
Odds last roll is correct: (1/20)

Odds all four are correct: [(4/20) * (3/20) * (2/20) * (1/20)] = 24 in 160,000

Consolation Prize:
The same thing happens with the consolation prize.

There are 19 possible combinations of winning the consolation prize with 1, 1, 1, 1 using a 20 sided die. (Win on 1, 1, 1, x -- dice rolls are not in order).


But on 1, 2, 3, 4 there are 76 possible winning combinations:
1, 2, 3, x (19 because you would win the grand prize on a 4)
1, 2, 4, x
1, 3, 4, x
2, 3, 4, x

As long as order is not important, you can improve the number of combinations that your guess covers by not picking numbers to repeat. If the order of selection is important, then everyones odds are equally bad. I'm really curious to see if Sir Lawrence will post the results -- x number of grand prizes and y number of consolation prizes.

Ink

PS - Just to clarify: in the above example a roll of 1, 1, 1, x is considered the same result as x, 1, 1, 1. Again, the rolls are not listed in order.

[HumanJHawkins]

Picking numbers to repeat lowers your odds of winning as long as order of numbers chosen is not important. Compare two guesses: 1, 1, 1, 1, and 1, 2, 3, 4.
<CUT>

Dooh... You're right. I've just been Math-Pwned.

[HumanJHawkins]

The odds of winning seem pretty small (as they probably should be)... Do you have a certain number of daggers that will be given away one way or another, or, if no one picks the right numbers, will the game simply end with no winners?

Thanks!

[Sir_Lawrence]

A few quick replies:

There is no guarantee of winners - but there is a guarantee of suspense and excitement.

Not everyone will like it I'm sure. But not everyone likes the color blue either. (The blue-naysayers are less vocal however.)

As for which PMs were deleted? Honestly, I didn't look at the names. Because they didn't follow the instructions, they were deleted immediately - I have *A LOT* of PMs to sort through and record (hence subject line only).

Lastly: You can put anything in the body of the message. Odds are good that I won't open them. That's why I ask for the info in the subject field so I can see what I need right away and record it.

Yippe-yi-yark-yark!

[sidmind]

A few quick replies:


Lastly: You can put anything in the body of the message. Odds are good that I won't open them. That's why I ask for the info in the subject field so I can see what I need right away and record it.
!

you do know that you can't send a PM without "SOMETHING" in the body of the message.

I typed 4 "dots" .... in the body to get the pm to send.

[Mad_Bombardier]

you do know that you can't send a PM without "SOMETHING" in the body of the message.

I typed 4 "dots" .... in the body to get the pm to send.

And thus the note: "You can put ANYTHING in the body of the message."

C'mon now folks. This was covered in post #2 and edited into the instructions in the OP.

[sidmind]

reading skills are very important, something I am missing.

[Capstern]

A few quick replies:

There is no guarantee of winners - but there is a guarantee of suspense and excitement.

Not everyone will like it I'm sure. But not everyone likes the color blue either. (The blue-naysayers are less vocal however.)

As for which PMs were deleted? Honestly, I didn't look at the names. Because they didn't follow the instructions, they were deleted immediately - I have *A LOT* of PMs to sort through and record (hence subject line only).

Lastly: You can put anything in the body of the message. Odds are good that I won't open them. That's why I ask for the info in the subject field so I can see what I need right away and record it.

Yippe-yi-yark-yark!

In honor of the summer movie season shouldnt that be

yippie-yi-yark-motheryarker

?