The Festival of Olladra comes to Stormreach!

[dragnmoon]

Event PMs will only be accepted between 12:01 am eastern June 25, 2007 and 12:00 pm eastern July 1, 2007. You may submit only one entry - extra PMs will be deleted.

Wow since you did not post this until 12:27 PM June 25.. I would be amazed if someone went back in time to send a PM before 12:01 am Eastern

[Inkblack]

Taking into account that the numbers may be picked in any order, I calculate the odds of winning as:

Intimidating Dagger of Paralyzing Acid: 1 in 6,667
Intimidating Dagger of Acid: 1 in 351

Odds of winning a prize: 0.3%
Odds of not winning: 99.7%

Calculation Details:
Probability(4 out of 4) =
1 in {1 / [(4/20) * (3/20) * (2/20) * (1/20)]}
first pick: 4 correct numbers to choose from out of 20 possible
second pick: only 3 correct numbers left, still 20 to choose from
etc.

Probability(3 out of 4) =
1 in {1 / [(4/20) * (3/20) * (2/20) * (19/20)]}
last pick: 19 incorrect numbers to choose from out of the 20

Probability(Prize) =
[(4/20) * (3/20) * (2/20)]

Probability(no Prize) =
1 - Probability(Prize)

EDIT: As pointed out by Tyrande below, this calculation is for the best case odds: when the player chooses four unique numbers. Odds of winning are lower if the player chooses some numbers to repeat.

Ink

[Wulf_Ratbane]

Couldn't people that get 1 or 2 numbers right get a, say, "+1 Somewhat Frightening Dagger of Citric Acid"?

The +1 Paper Dagger of Lemon Juice.

[Wulf_Ratbane]

A suggestion: perhaps consider other ways to reward people in game. Loot is nice, but seems to be used for everything.

Unique weapon and armor styles.

For example, I'd love to have a suit of armor with a bulls-eye on the back.

[Tyrande]

Taking into account that the numbers may be picked in any order, I calculate the odds of winning as:

Intimidating Dagger of Paralyzing Acid: 1 in 6,667
Intimidating Dagger of Acid: 1 in 351

Odds of winning a prize: 0.3%
Odds of not winning: 99.7%

Calculation Details:
Probability(4 out of 4) =
1 in {1 / [(4/20) * (3/20) * (2/20) * (1/20)]}
first pick: 4 correct numbers to choose from out of 20 possible
second pick: only 3 correct numbers left, still 20 to choose from
etc.

Probability(3 out of 4) =
1 in {1 / [(4/20) * (3/20) * (2/20) * (19/20)]}
last pick: 19 incorrect numbers to choose from out of the 20

Probability(Prize) =
[(4/20) * (3/20) * (2/20)]

Probability(no Prize) =
1 - Probability(Prize)

Ink

Not sure if the calculation is correct. Sir Lawrence did mention the numbers can repeat. In essence, you can roll all four 1s or four 20s.

So the low end chance of winning a paralyzer: is 1 in {1 /(1/20*1/20*1/20*1/20)} = 0.000625% or 1 in 160000

and low end getting the consolation prize: is 1/20 * 1/20 * 1/20 = 1 in 8000 or 0.0125%

low end probability of no prize: 99.9875%

Yes, guessing the same number (such as 1) more than once in your guess is valid. So, yes, you could guess 1, 1, 1, 1. SO you have to ask yourself one question: Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya? (okay, maybe two questions.)

The probability is per account. Higher number of accounts will generate higher probability of winning. And depending on what Sir Lawrence rolled, your calculation is valid for four distinct numbers.

[FlyinS]

The +1 Paper Dagger of Lemon Juice.

+1 Ulcer Dagger of Doom (DC 2).

Um, it won't let me send a PM with nothing in the body of the message. Should I just repeat what's in the subject line?

[DrAwkward]

Not sure if the calculation is correct. Sir Lawrence did mention the numbers can repeat. In essence, you can roll all four 1s or four 20s.

So the chance of winning a paralyzer: is 1 in {1 /(1/20*1/20*1/20*1/20)} = 0.000625% or 1 in 160000

and getting the consolation prize: is 1/20 * 1/20 * 1/20 = 1 in 8000 or 0.0125%

probability of no prize: 99.9875%

You have a 1 in 160000 chance of picking the numbers in the same order as Sir Lawrence. There are 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 ways of arranging those four numbers and still have a valid winning entry. 24/160,000 = 1/6667ish


The consolation prize is even trickier, because there are four rolls, not just three. I'm thinking Inkblack might have goofed when he included the 19/20 for the last roll, but I need to think it over. It isn't intuitive that your odds should go down because you got an extra roll.

It might be "odds of picking three specific numbers" times "number of combinations of three numbers out of four choices"
= (1/20) * (1/20) * (1/20) * (20/20) * (4 * 3 * 2)
= 24/8000
= 1/333ish?

Finally, your odds of winning anything is the same as your chance to win the consolation. Everyone that wins the grand prize also qualified for the consolation, by definition.

Now, since this is a celebration of a goddess of bounty, why aren't we winning food? How about a snack for those that match 2/4?

[Inkblack]

Not sure if the calculation is correct. (snip)

You are correct, my analysis is for the best case when the player chooses 4 unique numbers. Turning what you said around though, the player has a lower chance of winning a prize if they pick some numbers to repeat. This is because you significantly reduce the probability of winning the consolation prize if you choose a repeat number. In order to maximize their chance of winning, the player should choose 4 unique numbers.

The probability is less than 30% that the four winning numbers rolled by Sir Lawrence will have a repeat number.

Ink

[Inkblack]

I'm thinking Inkblack might have goofed when he included the 19/20 for the last roll, but I need to think it over.

You have to include the 19/20 because in 1/20 of the cases you won the grand prize and not the consolation prize.

Ink

[Sir_Lawrence]

A famous smuggler once said: "Never tell me the odds."

[Tanka]

Actually, I think he more yelled it than said it.

[Cupcake]

Your character name, please. This way I can make sure it goes out to the right winner(s).

Good Afternoon Sir!! Very nice to see you!

Hands you your afternoon tray of fresh cupcake.

[DrAwkward]

Hands you your afternoon tray of fresh cupcake.

I think the Coin Lords should consider contracting Cupcake to provide snacks for those that only pick 2/4.

It is a celebration for the goddess of bounty, and I can think of no better representative in all of Stormreach.

[Mad_Bombardier]

Now, since this is a celebration of a goddess of bounty, why aren't we winning food? How about a snack for those that match 2/4?

Some of the New Kargon's Tasty Hams would work quite nicely too. Or maybe Kargon and Cupcake's lovechild, Tasty Hamcakes.

[moorewr]

The +1 Paper Dagger of Lemon Juice.

OUCH!

[Cupcake]

I think the Coin Lords should consider contracting Cupcake to provide snacks for those that only pick 2/4.

It is a celebration for the goddess of bounty, and I can think of no better representative in all of Stormreach.

I be happy to provide snacks for the proposed dates in question.

[Nonan]

I need the +4 Lozenge of Ant Acid Please...

[Luthen]

The Festival of Olladra

Olladra, the goddess of Feast and Fortune, can be both playful and fickle. As tribute to this mercurial goddess, the Coin Lords will be celebrating the Festival of Olladra on 4 Lharvion* by giving away several Intimidating Daggers of Paralyzing Acid! This exclusive event item also has a lower tiered version called the Intimidating Dagger of Acid. The Coin Lords have a limited number of both daggers and will be giving them to a lucky few.

The Overview:

Between the dates of 25 Nymm and 1 Lharvion*, send a message to Sir Lawrence d’Deneith via the Sivis Messaging Boards. The subject of this letter should contain four numbers of your choice (each between 1-20), your name, and home world. Sir Lawrence will disqualify any letters which vary from this format, he will also disallow any letters which arrive before or after the specified dates.



On 4 Lharvion*, Sir Lawrence will be visiting each home world and roll publicly for the winning numbers. Prizes will be awarded after 11 Lharvion when the daggers have arrived from Zilargo.

Rules:

Between the dates of June 25-July 1 send +Sir Lawrence a PM on the DDO.com forums with your pick of four numbers each between 1-20 (for example: 3, 12, 12, 19) IN THE SUBJECT LINE. Be sure to include your character name and server. This information must appear in your subject line of the PM only! +Sir will delete any PM that does not have all required information in the subject line. Below is an example of a proper entry. The subject line should look like this:

Bob, Argonnessen, 2, 11, 18, 20

Event PMs will only be accepted between 12:01 am eastern June 25, 2007 and 12:00 pm eastern July 1, 2007. You may submit only one entry - extra PMs will be deleted.

Players who picked all four die rolls for their server will win a +2 Intimidating Dagger of Paralyzing Acid! Anyone who correctly selected three of the four numbers will receive a +1 Intimidating Dagger of Acid.

On July 4th, 2007, +Sir will visit each server to roll the winning numbers (See below for scheduled times.)

The Fine Print

* 25 Nymm through 1 Lharvion = June 25th through July 1st. 4 Lharvion and 11 Larvion are July 4th and July 11th respectively.

Separate winning numbers will be determined for each server with no limit as to how many winners are allowed for either prize.

There are is no guarantee that each server (or even any server) will have a winner.

Winners will be announced on the forums and the prizes will be delivered through in-game mail by +Sir Lawrence in the middle of July. Only one dagger per person - people who win the +2 Intimidating Dagger of Paralyzing Acid do not also get the +1 Intimidating Dagger of Acid.

Only properly formatted entries will be entered in the Festival. Reminder: a proper entry is a PM sent to +Sir Lawrence via the DDO.com forums that includes your name, server, and four numbers between 1-20 in the subject line.

Only one entry per account. Only entries whose numbers were exact, will win. There is no entry fee. You do not need to be present (i.e., logged into DDO during the drawing) to win. All active DDO accounts may participate. +Sir will have a record of all entries and will determine the winners for each server accordingly.

Ya see you guys just like to be as confusing as possible. While to most it may be common sense there is NO "Subject Line" in the PM section. It's a choice of Title or Message. So how about you clarify for others who might not quite follow what you're asking. Thanks.

[Sensei]

Could we get a look at the daggers Sir? PLEASSSSSE!

[Sir_Lawrence]

Could we get a look at the daggers Sir? PLEASSSSSE!

I'll have a copy of the daggers available soon.