When's the Next HC League?

[LT218]

I'm really looking forward to the next hardcore league. It does wonders for DDO's long-term population health. Keep 'em coming!


https://i.imgur.com/DWgKJf3.png

Notice how the Live server population takes the expected dip when HC starts, but doesn't go back up to pre-HC levels after HC is done? Looks like the past two HC leagues have dropped the average post-HC server populations by several hundred per.


https://i.imgur.com/UswVffM.png


Keep up the good work, SSG! I bet you can crack the sub-1000 average mark soon. Lower numbers are better, right?

[spifflove]

Well I am back solely because of hardcore league and wish it was a permanent server.

[LT218]

Well I am back solely because of hardcore league and wish it was a permanent server.
According to the stats above, there's not enough players like you to make up for the increased attrition HC causes on the Live servers each time.

Congratulations on being the the one step forward for every two steps back the population takes with every HC league.

The attrition on the Live servers due to HC league is a self-reinforcing cycle, too. Every time HC league turns the live server LFM scene into a ghost town for a few months, some number of non-HC players quit due to lack of LFMs and people to group with.

That means that even if every single player who temporarily left Live to play on HC returns after HC is done, the Live population is still lower than it was before. This in turn means that the Live population hits even lower average numbers on the next HC season, which causes more non-HC players to quit.

[droid327]

Hmm it looks like HC is giving players an easy exit ramp from the game - once they're "done" on HC, they reach a good natural stopping point and don't have any incentive to get back into their Live characters. Especially since HCL can be a much more intensive grind over a shorter time, I'm sure a lot of players burn out on it.

I'd attribute some of this pattern to people assuming the next HCL will only be a few weeks and intending to come back then...which should ultimately solve itself if they keep it to twice a year or so. But they might do well to try and structure something to incentivize players to go back to Live right away and not let them go get sucked into another game. Either some kind of event scheduled right as HC numbers are tapering off...or maybe allowing HC transfers the whole time, not just after close, so people don't go idle waiting for it to end...or maybe some kind of tiered "participation award" on Live for transferring a character from HC, like a btc elixir for every other char, something that gets them back into their other chars.

And, for the sake of thoroughness, one other interpretation: the population was over inflated since the F2P summer. That brought in a lot of new players, and the population has gradually been returning back to steady state. HCL just accelerated the bleed off. But it looks like we're back down to pre-lockdown levels again, so we'll see if next HCL leads to another ratchet down or if it recovers to equilibrium after

[Glebyrthrang]

Your own analysis suggests that the hardcore scene turns live into a ghost town. Surely that must show you that a significant portion finds the hardcore scene more enjoyable than softcore. Personally, my own participation in live is only to test more builds for the next hardcore season.
I genuinely do not care at all about the LFM numbers in softcore, during or in between hardcore seasons. The fact that a large number of the community are absent in between hardcore seasons indicates an intrinsic problem with the softcore game mode. If that results in the death of the game as a whole, then it is the lack of attention being paid to the game as a whole, not the presence of hardcore. This could be loosely aligned to the fact that those who enjoyed hardcore, realise that the rest of the game is as boring as hell as soon as they have to return to it after a hardcore season ends.

Your argument is no different than "remove reaper mode because it effects my ability to find HE/EE groups".

I suspect that a large component of your concern would be solved with a full scale server merge. That would mean the migration to hardcore during a season would have a smaller effect on the greater population and you can have your "healthy" LFM scene in softcore.

[droid327]

Your own analysis suggests that the hardcore scene turns live into a ghost town. Surely that must show you that a significant portion finds the hardcore scene more enjoyable than softcore. Personally, my own participation in live is only to test more builds for the next hardcore season.
I genuinely do not care at all about the LFM numbers in softcore, during or in between hardcore seasons. The fact that a large number of the community are absent in between hardcore seasons indicates an intrinsic problem with the softcore game mode. If that results in the death of the game as a whole, then it is the lack of attention being paid to the game as a whole, not the presence of hardcore. This could be loosely aligned to the fact that those who enjoyed hardcore, realise that the rest of the game is as boring as hell as soon as they have to return to it after a hardcore season ends.

Your argument is no different than "remove reaper mode because it effects my ability to find HE/EE groups".

I suspect that a large component of your concern would be solved with a full scale server merge. That would mean the migration to hardcore during a season would have a smaller effect on the greater population and you can have your "healthy" LFM scene in softcore.

No, this doesn't track. The average pop on HCL is only like 200 on that chart, peak 500. The Live numbers are like 1800, peak 2700 - divide that across seven servers (sorry Wayfinder) and that's like 250-385. HCL is not significantly more populous than a regular server.

It also suggests that the hardcore hardcore fans, the "hc or gtfo" crowd, aren't a "significant portion" of the population - at the absolute most 14%, if you count every single person playing on hcl.

[slarden]

I really enjoy hardcore. It's great that they are spacing seasons out a bit more - I think that was the right move.

I am already looking forward to next season! I think hardcore achievements are the most meaningful in the game. Dom of Khyber gets wings during hardcore season - that is nuts! Nothing ever done in the game can even come close to that as an accomplishment.

Keep up the great work on hardcore SSG!

[Glebyrthrang]

No, this doesn't track. The average pop on HCL is only like 200 on that chart, peak 500. The Live numbers are like 1800, peak 2700 - divide that across seven servers (sorry Wayfinder) and that's like 250-385. HCL is not significantly more populous than a regular server.

It also suggests that the hardcore hardcore fans, the "hc or gtfo" crowd, aren't a "significant portion" of the population - at the absolute most 14%, if you count every single person playing on hcl.

I'm not sure what school of metrics you are from, but if I ran a business that didn't suggest that 14% was a significant portion, I would be running at a loss before I could blink an eye. There is an enormous difference between "majority" and "significant"

adjective
1.
sufficiently great or important to be worthy of attention; noteworthy.
"a significant increase in sales"

start a business, achieve 14% growth or decay and try to tell me it isn't significant....

At no point did I suggest that HCL was significantly more populous than regular. I am simply pointing out to the OP that the numbers can be read any way you like, to achieve any outcome you desire. Mine is that the numbers suggest there is an intrinsic problem with the standard game mode, if it cannot retain the player base, post HCL.

[LT218]

Your own analysis suggests that the hardcore scene turns live into a ghost town. Surely that must show you that a significant portion finds the hardcore scene more enjoyable than softcore. Personally, my own participation in live is only to test more builds for the next hardcore season.
I genuinely do not care at all about the LFM numbers in softcore, during or in between hardcore seasons. The fact that a large number of the community are absent in between hardcore seasons indicates an intrinsic problem with the softcore game mode. If that results in the death of the game as a whole, then it is the lack of attention being paid to the game as a whole, not the presence of hardcore. This could be loosely aligned to the fact that those who enjoyed hardcore, realise that the rest of the game is as boring as hell as soon as they have to return to it after a hardcore season ends.

Your argument is no different than "remove reaper mode because it effects my ability to find HE/EE groups".

I suspect that a large component of your concern would be solved with a full scale server merge. That would mean the migration to hardcore during a season would have a smaller effect on the greater population and you can have your "healthy" LFM scene in softcore.
Surely, you misunderstood the point.

It shows exactly what I said it did.
1) HC league starts.
2) X amount of Live players temporarily play on HC instead of Live.
3) Y amount of non-HC players on Live servers quit due to lack of LFMs and groups.
4) HC league ends.
5) X players from #2 return to live.
6) Average Live server population is Y lower than it was pre-HC due to #3.

Server merge or not, if the overall Live population takes a net, unrecovered hit every time SSG does a HC league, HC leagues are just accelerating DDO's journey to maintenance mode. Somehow, I doubt that HC league is enough to pay all the bills if the majority of the Live players quit due to lack of LFMs and groups.

As I said to one of the previous posters, Congratulations on being the the one step forward for every two steps back the population takes with every HC league.


I am simply pointing out to the OP that the numbers can be read any way you like, to achieve any outcome you desire. Mine is that the numbers suggest there is an intrinsic problem with the standard game mode, if it cannot retain the player base, post HCL.
The numbers don't show that there is an intrinsic problem with the standard game mode. In fact, they show that the standard mode population is relatively steady until right after HC. It shows that HC is causing non-HC players to quit at abnormally high rates versus periods of non-HC.

[Glebyrthrang]

Surely, you misunderstood the point.

It shows exactly what I said it did.
1) HC league starts.
2) X amount of Live players temporarily play on HC instead of Live.
3) Y amount of non-HC players on Live servers quit due to lack of LFMs and groups.
4) HC league ends.
5) X players from #2 return to live.
6) Average Live server population is Y lower than it was pre-HC due to #3.

Server merge or not, if the overall Live population takes a net, unrecovered hit every time SSG does a HC league, HC leagues are just accelerating DDO's journey to maintenance mode. Somehow, I doubt that HC league is enough to pay all the bills if the majority of the Live players quit due to lack of LFMs and groups.

As I said to one of the previous posters, Congratulations on being the the one step forward for every two steps back the population takes with every HC league.


The numbers don't show that there is an intrinsic problem with the standard game mode. In fact, they show that the standard mode population is relatively steady until right after HC. It shows that HC is causing non-HC players to quit at abnormally high rates versus periods of non-HC.



They absolutely show an intrinsic problem with the standard game mode. If the standard game mode wasn't such a complete pile of dog ****, HCL would not attract anyone away from it in the first place. The fact that it does, combined with the fact that several do not return to it post HCL, is irrefutable evidence that it blows chunks. It is separate and not relevant to what the population on live does during HCL. If the standard game mode was not dog ****, it would benefit from HCLs efforts to attract new and/or returning players. You have an agenda to see HCL scrapped because it affects your preferred game mode. You choose to read the numbers in a way that supports that agenda.

As for congratulating me for being part of the problem. Great! I will take that congratulations with an enormous volume of pride. You can continue to live on bread and water, whilst I feast on a more enjoyable dish that is HCL.

That will do me for my cameo on these forums. I will leave you to your musings.

[Chacka_DDO]

I cannot stress it often enough, ONE hardcore season per year should be the maximum (I would suggest that as a summer event).
And I suggested long ago to change the FTP model of DDO in a dynamic system, content that is 2 years (?) or older should turn into FTP.
A one-time code that makes everything FTP for a limited time is nothing more than a flash in the pan but that SSG did it shows also that FTP still can attract new players.
If you want a constant inflow of new players (or return of old players) you need a model that makes DDO attractive for players who even don't want to pay anything for DDO.
I think most players who start a game as FTP players with the option to pay nothing at all will start to pay money if they like the game and if they get fair and attractive offers.
But also players who don't pay money by themself are important because for a certain number of non-paying players you have a certain number of players who pay for the game.
I'm convinced that the so-called whales swim with the swarm of small fishes.
No one invests money in a dead game...
DDO still has die-hard players like me but also such players die out one day.
The biggest problem is that DDO needs one day a well-made remake with a new game engine that is supported by the big players like AMD and NVidia.

[sturmbb]

Well I am back solely because of hardcore league and wish it was a permanent server.

I'm in the same camp, i'm not 100% sure i would want a permanent server though.

I used to love playing DDO but over time i just lost interest in the game. Thankfully HC came along and revived my love of the game. After season 1 I left and only came back for season 2, but at the end of season 2 i tried to go back to the live servers but its just not the same. when playing on HC you get an adrenaline rush knowing that one mistake or miscalculation can end your run. On Live if you die it doesn't matter, worse case scenario is you have wasted time in the quest (if you end up getting a wipe).

When i came back to Live after season 2 i tried to get into TRing and building reaper points but my heart just wasn't in it. Which is a shame because i really used to love this game, there is still nothing like it (well I haven't come across anything that has the same character customization etc).

I don't even think i would come back if there was a server merge, the thing i use to love about DDO was the multiplayer aspect and joining random pugs and meeting new people. HC also fulfills that role as when HC starts the game is so active and full of groups and people play as a team. I find on Live that usually everyone in a group plays the game singular and there is no team aspect to the quest (ie stopping for traps(while waiting for the rogue), ppl not using crowd control or going off on a one man mission etc) maybe this new Nerf they have introduced will make the game more group friendly and allow people to play as a team again instead of one person steam rolling the content.

[slarden]

Surely, you misunderstood the point.

It shows exactly what I said it did.
1) HC league starts.
2) X amount of Live players temporarily play on HC instead of Live.
3) Y amount of non-HC players on Live servers quit due to lack of LFMs and groups.
4) HC league ends.
5) X players from #2 return to live.
6) Average Live server population is Y lower than it was pre-HC due to #3.

Server merge or not, if the overall Live population takes a net, unrecovered hit every time SSG does a HC league, HC leagues are just accelerating DDO's journey to maintenance mode. Somehow, I doubt that HC league is enough to pay all the bills if the majority of the Live players quit due to lack of LFMs and groups.

As I said to one of the previous posters, Congratulations on being the the one step forward for every two steps back the population takes with every HC league.


The numbers don't show that there is an intrinsic problem with the standard game mode. In fact, they show that the standard mode population is relatively steady until right after HC. It shows that HC is causing non-HC players to quit at abnormally high rates versus periods of non-HC.

It does not show any of that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

There are many variable at play: The covid-19 lockdowns and quarantine, more online activity right after the pandemic started, changing activity as the pandemic progressed, the free coupon code, caster nerfs, typical summer population declines that occur other years as well.

One of the oddest impacts of hardcore league is a tiny group of people that don't participate in hardcore league lobbying that it is somehow massively problematic when all I see when I participate is a bunch of people having loads of fun. Like myself many that participate in hardcore league play on hardcore and live actively rather than focusing on just one server at a time.

So many tears from such a small group of people over hardcore league.

[Jerevth]

This is a very narrow view to prop up a premise. There are a couple factors outside of HC league that have occurred and would reduce population.

-It's summer in the northern hemisphere- despite Covid people want to be outside.
-New games have released elsewhere.

I'm sure there are others events, and I'm sure HC is part of the change, but it's not the sole reason. HC may be the reason people delay taking a break they intended to take...

[boredGamer]

So threads about HC league aren't allowed in General Discussion but threads bashing HC league and people that like it are allowed in General Discussion?

[Cordovan]

So threads about HC league aren't allowed in General Discussion but threads bashing HC league and people that like it are allowed in General Discussion?

There is clearly a bit of a forum faction war going on over the appropriateness of discussing Hardcore in General. I personally have no issue with using General as a fairly wide-ranging drop box, and we try to be pretty lenient in terms of not moving threads. We typically respond to complaints, which is what is happening here. I have begun in recent weeks to lean back toward NOT moving these threads into Hardcore, as the frequent reporting feels less like a request for rules moderation and more like trying to win a forum argument. So, seems like some really dislike Hardcore-specific conversation in General, some really want to talk about Hardcore in General.

[Arkat]

So, seems like some really dislike Hardcore-specific conversation in General, some really want to talk about Hardcore in General.

I'd prefer folks keep Hardcore talk in the Hardcore forum much like how many folks want to keep the Off-Topic talk in the Off-Topic forum.

You created a special place for it, let's keep it there.

[Inanout]

This is about how the game in general is affected by HC.
I agree with the OP.
I do not care either way, it is an observation.
Some people seem over sensitive to the topic.

[droid327]

There is clearly a bit of a forum faction war going on over the appropriateness of discussing Hardcore in General. I personally have no issue with using General as a fairly wide-ranging drop box, and we try to be pretty lenient in terms of not moving threads. We typically respond to complaints, which is what is happening here. I have begun in recent weeks to lean back toward NOT moving these threads into Hardcore, as the frequent reporting feels less like a request for rules moderation and more like trying to win a forum argument. So, seems like some really dislike Hardcore-specific conversation in General, some really want to talk about Hardcore in General.

Conversations about things going on in Hardcore or things that only affect Hardcore -> Hardcore forums

Discussions about Hardcore itself and its place in the overall game -> General

I think that's pretty true of all the topic forums too.

[Chai]

There is clearly a bit of a forum faction war going on over the appropriateness of discussing Hardcore in General. I personally have no issue with using General as a fairly wide-ranging drop box, and we try to be pretty lenient in terms of not moving threads. We typically respond to complaints, which is what is happening here. I have begun in recent weeks to lean back toward NOT moving these threads into Hardcore, as the frequent reporting feels less like a request for rules moderation and more like trying to win a forum argument. So, seems like some really dislike Hardcore-specific conversation in General, some really want to talk about Hardcore in General.

Yes, people often abuse the report system for this very reason.

[fatherpirate]

I'd prefer folks keep Hardcore talk in the Hardcore forum much like how many folks want to keep the Off-Topic talk in the Off-Topic forum.

You created a special place for it, let's keep it there.

By the same token, there is a specific Reaper Difficulty forum separate from this
one and I think ALL Reaper discussions should be moved there instead of here.

or

Just allow anything directly DDO given in a civil tone to be discussed here.

[Qlumsee]

I've lost three good friends from the game due to hardcore. They were in from the very beginning of the game and hefty contributors to SSG's (et al) locker.

I don't play the game for the company and season 4 was my last. I feel like an idiot for playing four seasons since I have nothing to show for it but some cosmetics that I don't use. As a rough estimate I could've run up 18 past lives on my main instead of doing hardcore.

[fatherpirate]

I've lost three good friends from the game due to hardcore. They were in from the very beginning of the game and hefty contributors to SSG's (et al) locker.

I don't play the game for the company and season 4 was my last. I feel like an idiot for playing four seasons since I have nothing to show for it but some cosmetics that I don't use. As a rough estimate I could've run up 18 past lives on my main instead of doing hardcore.

Did they die?
You make it sound like HCL is a new type of crack.
ridiculous

[Dark_Lord_Mary]

I cannot stress it often enough, ONE hardcore season per year should be the maximum (I would suggest that as a summer event).
And I suggested long ago to change the FTP model of DDO in a dynamic system, content that is 2 years (?) or older should turn into FTP.
A one-time code that makes everything FTP for a limited time is nothing more than a flash in the pan but that SSG did it shows also that FTP still can attract new players.
If you want a constant inflow of new players (or return of old players) you need a model that makes DDO attractive for players who even don't want to pay anything for DDO.
I think most players who start a game as FTP players with the option to pay nothing at all will start to pay money if they like the game and if they get fair and attractive offers.
But also players who don't pay money by themself are important because for a certain number of non-paying players you have a certain number of players who pay for the game.
I'm convinced that the so-called whales swim with the swarm of small fishes.
No one invests money in a dead game...
DDO still has die-hard players like me but also such players die out one day.
The biggest problem is that DDO needs one day a well-made remake with a new game engine that is supported by the big players like AMD and NVidia.

I agree - as someone who participates in every HCL I really only want 1 per year. It is a lot of work and is very time consuming and I get nothing done at all on my live server, its a wonder the raiders hate HCL - it is all consuming. It would be nice if it were a set time every year so we could all plan for it and make schedules around it, like any major event, or comiccon it would be nice to be able to plan a year in advance.

[LT218]

It does not show any of that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

There are many variable at play: The covid-19 lockdowns and quarantine, more online activity right after the pandemic started, changing activity as the pandemic progressed, the free coupon code, caster nerfs, typical summer population declines that occur other years as well.

One of the oddest impacts of hardcore league is a tiny group of people that don't participate in hardcore league lobbying that it is somehow massively problematic when all I see when I participate is a bunch of people having loads of fun. Like myself many that participate in hardcore league play on hardcore and live actively rather than focusing on just one server at a time.

So many tears from such a small group of people over hardcore league.

It clearly shows a stairstep drop from the preceeding average after every HC league. Not sure if you noticed, but Covid started over 1.5 years ago. The unrecovered population drops shown by the graphs are more recent. They line up in lockstep with the HC seasons.

Additionally, the bulk of the people I and my friends know on the live server who have quit/retired/etc. all cited the same reasons - lack of groups and LFMs, lack of enough skilled players to push difficulty on end-game raids. Every time HC league runs, more long-term players quit. Not a massive amount, but enough that it's become noticeable.

[slarden]

It clearly shows a stairstep drop from the preceeding average after every HC league. Not sure if you noticed, but Covid started over 1.5 years ago. The unrecovered population drops shown by the graphs are more recent. They line up in lockstep with the HC seasons.

Additionally, the bulk of the people I and my friends know on the live server who have quit/retired/etc. all cited the same reasons - lack of groups and LFMs, lack of enough skilled players to push difficulty on end-game raids. Every time HC league runs, more long-term players quit. Not a massive amount, but enough that it's become noticeable.

It doesn't show anything except your bias on the subject. Read the wiki article which clearly demonstrates the logic fallacy of ignoring all variables except two.

[AbyssalMage]

There is clearly a bit of a forum faction war going on over the appropriateness of discussing Hardcore in General. I personally have no issue with using General as a fairly wide-ranging drop box, and we try to be pretty lenient in terms of not moving threads. We typically respond to complaints, which is what is happening here. I have begun in recent weeks to lean back toward NOT moving these threads into Hardcore, as the frequent reporting feels less like a request for rules moderation and more like trying to win a forum argument. So, seems like some really dislike Hardcore-specific conversation in General, some really want to talk about Hardcore in General.

Thank you for using common sense about keeping this conversation in the General tab as this seems the appropriate place.

To the people trying to get this thread moved: shame on you, whoever you are.

OP,

Hopefully they begin limiting HC league to twice a year. It needs to feel special each time it is run. Although it would be nice to convert a server to the HC rule set so players can have a Perma-death server year round when league play isn't available. Personally I do not partake in HC mostly because I am too casual of a player. And I dislike that the live servers have been adjusted (i.e. nerfs have occurred) to facilitate "level" play in HC. So I have become less and less of a fan of the whole thing. That being said, I realize it is an infusion of money so it is here to stay and the "adjustments" that come with it.

[AbyssalMage]

It doesn't show anything except your bias on the subject. Read the wiki article which clearly demonstrates the logic fallacy of ignoring all variables except two.
I'll simply state that I was shocked that according to the graph retention remained the same with the release of Fey. So maybe the graph is off? /shrug

[Oxarhamar]

It clearly shows a stairstep drop from the preceeding average after every HC league. Not sure if you noticed, but Covid started over 1.5 years ago. The unrecovered population drops shown by the graphs are more recent. They line up in lockstep with the HC seasons.

Additionally, the bulk of the people I and my friends know on the live server who have quit/retired/etc. all cited the same reasons - lack of groups and LFMs, lack of enough skilled players to push difficulty on end-game raids. Every time HC league runs, more long-term players quit. Not a massive amount, but enough that it's become noticeable.

Indeed

There are other factors but ignoring this is fallacy

It’s obvious that it’s not helping the population

[gaffneyks]

I do not play hardcore and IMHO the live servers seem dead during the hardcore season. Actually in season 4, I just cancelled my VIP and played other games due to this.

Hardcore is over now, so I renewed my sub and am playing DDO again. So if Hardcore is going to be twice a year, then I guess I will only pay for a VIP for 6 months. I would assume that this is a negative for SSG.

I think Hardcore is bad for the game that I play, which is on the live servers as I feel that it brings the population down. There are many people who Love hardcore and only want to play hardcore. Some of those people I have seen state on these forums that they only come back for hard core and only play DDO during hardcore.

Just like I would not like the "HardCore Fans" to tell me how to play the game, I should not tell them to play the game. But having 2 groups of DDO players only play DDO for part of the year because it doesn't offer what they want has to be bad for the game.

My opinion, not that SSG cares, would be do to do the following

1) Just make the hardcore server a permanent server
2) Make server moves free. Server consolidation seems to be a problem, and something SSG does not want to handle, but i would bet if they just allowed people to move servers freely, you would find people would naturally gravitate to severs to play together, heck maybe even spin up a new server? The real solution would be cross server grouping, but i doubt this game could handle that technology

Just my thoughts.
I am probably wrong..... But ...hey....

[SerPounce]

OP is both right and somewhat unfair to hardcore. The problem isn't hardcore per se it's the lack of grouping on live. I can see why Hardcore players are put out by this post because Hardcore is really the one legitimate alternative server because it has a different ruleset. Some people prefer those rules and that in isolation attracts more people not fewer. The real problem is the 7 identical live servers all with the same rules serving no purpose other than to separate people. It's really sad this wasn't addressed before the big covid/f2p bump. I think there was a real chance at a revitalized proper MMO community, but when everything is muffled by 1/7 it was snuffed out.

To me this data isn't about "hardcore bad," but what a colossal mistake it's been to not consolidate populations starting 6+ years ago out of a fear of a one time drop from people with various idiosyncratic reasons for liking their dying servers.

[SiliconScout]

My take is this.

For the vast majority of players.

In HC you can complete 1 or 2 lives and accomplish "something" and by that I mean a real sense of accomplishment. It you can get out 4 lives you should have ALL the rewards HC has to offer. You can run with the "big dogs" and fully contribute all the way along. You also probably grouped up most of the way easily and quickly.

In Regular play 4 lives is the beginning of your build, you probably got carried through those lives for the most part, assuming you found a group that was willing to drag you through. Chances are you died, often, and spent a non-insignificant amount of time in a backpack as a soul stone.

So you run HC you feel valued, useful and even needed. You are able to accomplish rewards and goals in a reasonable amount of time and you can do so easily grouped up (if you desire) with players who are all similarly "powerful". the only differentiator really is knowledge of the quests. Whereas on a regular server ... well it's pretty much the opposite.

Most of the people I know who have left the game got tired of the never ending "move the goal posts and release the next grind" cycle but still kept on playing until one of the various changes to whatever system was the straw that broke the camels back. I am probably one of the most active players I know and if I put in 10 hours in a week that would be a lot. And this is a group who used to put in 4-6 hours a day, minimum as little as 2 years ago and far far more than than 10+ years ago.

And it's not that we don't have time to play, less than we had years ago, sure, without a doubt but we still get together and play a game regularly. Used to be Thursdays from 6 to midnight or so was DDO time. Now there are a multitude of games we play together. So many in fact we have a list and get a dice roller in discord to pick. When we started doing that a couple years ago there were 4 items on that list and 2 of them were DDO and LOTRO. But we removed sometime between HC2 and HC3. LOTRO went first because the camera and movement controls were NOT popular with us and the game play was meh at best. DDO followed not too long after because, frankly, we just wanted to play pretty much anything but DDO.

[Cordovan]

Conversations about things going on in Hardcore or things that only affect Hardcore -> Hardcore forums

Discussions about Hardcore itself and its place in the overall game -> General

I think that's pretty true of all the topic forums too.

This makes a lot of sense and sounds like a pretty good general rule for now.

[LT218]

It doesn't show anything except your bias on the subject. Read the wiki article which clearly demonstrates the logic fallacy of ignoring all variables except two.
You shouldn't infer things people don't actually say.

I never said HC was the *only* reason. In fact, I 100% do not think HC is the only thing having a negative impact on the Live server population. I do however 100% think HC definitely is ONE of the things having an impact. That's the point you appear to be missing.

I said the 1-year population graphs show that HC leagues have a net loss effect on average population.


Full disclosure, I enjoy HC. I've participated in several of them life schedule permitting. I find them a nice change of pace.

However, I'm open-minded enough to acknowledge that they do appear to be having a measurable, negative impact on the long-term Live server population. So while I enjoy HC, it appears to me that the HC leagues are the equivalent of living paycheck to paycheck at the cost of failing to plan and save for long-term quality of life.

[LT218]

I'll simply state that I was shocked that according to the graph retention remained the same with the release of Fey. So maybe the graph is off? /shrug
I don't think the graph is off. Even without HC leagues, the average Live server populations have been on a gentle, downward slope.

Typically though, we'd expect a somewhat noticeable increase in short-term server population right after the release of an expansion. Feywild caused a minor increase which slowly leveled back out but never caused a significant step up. So really, all it did was temporarily pause the gentle, downward slope. That's what the second graph in my OP shows.

[LT218]

as the frequent reporting feels less like a request for rules moderation and more like trying to win a forum argument.
I shall wear the reports as badges of honor, for if that's what people are resorting to in an effort to win a discussion or debate, they've already lost.

For the record, I intentionally put this in general because the point I was making is about the changes in Live server populations.

HC just happens to the explanation for the changes in Live. If I had made a post claiming that solar flares were having a negative impact on the Live server populations, nobody would be saying it should be moved to the HC forums. I bet they'd still find some reason or another to report it and ask for it to be hidden though. ;)

[slarden]

You shouldn't infer things people don't actually say.

I never said HC was the *only* reason. In fact, I 100% do not think HC is the only thing having a negative impact on the Live server population. I do however 100% think HC definitely is ONE of the things having an impact. That's the point you appear to be missing.


This is what you said.


It shows that HC is causing non-HC players to quit at abnormally high rates versus periods of non-HC.

Nothing you showed shows cause and effect and you are ignoring all other variables with this statement.

[fatherpirate]

The game is slowly losing players.
Why?

Because it is old. <--- real reason

However, a lot of folks will just blame whatever
they dislike for the loss.

But the true test is, was DDO losing players on a regular basis
overall BEFORE HCL1 ?

yes

will they be losing players after HCL stop (if they stop it)

yes

Will DDO keep losing players slowly no matter what?

yes


BECAUSE IT IS OLD

WOW is losing players <------ Because it is ... old.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
want a bunch of new players? yes?

Make a BRAND NEW D&D game.

Until then, stop blaming the slow loss of players over whatever
you personally don't like in the game.

[LT218]

This is what you said.
Thanks. I'm aware of what I said. I'm the one that said them.

Nowhere in my statement did I say HC is the *only* reason, yet you keep arguing about the *other* things. Try to stay on topic. There are plenty of other threads on the forums about the other factors contributing to the population decline.



Nothing you showed shows cause and effect and you are ignoring all other variables with this statement.
Not my fault if you can't read graphs and deduce what the repeated stair step drops in overall population coinciding exactly with the HC seasons means. Nothing you've said shows anything to the contrary.

Maybe this helps?

https://i.imgur.com/3QQvwvg.png

Notice how the Live population stays relatively flat (the yellow and purple lines) each post-HC season? Notice the sudden ~500 player drop (the red and yellow rectangles) on Live that occurs at the beginning of each HC season? Notice how the Live population levels never jump back up to their pre-HC league numbers after the season is over?

Assuming that a good portion of the HC league players trickle back to the Live servers once they're done with HC and/or the league ends, one could reasonably expect that the Live populations would return to somewhere near the original levels. That didnt happen though.

What a mystery!

What happened on those dates that would cause that number of Live players to suddenly quit DDO? Did SSG do a round of mass bannings right as each HC started? Did the world governments suddenly start charging high taxes for online gaming on two different times? Were there massive solar flares that fried 500 non-HC players hardware?

I mean, how's a simple guy like me to be able to keep track of the infinite number of unfathomable variables. I just look at the unusual drops in a population chart showing correlating events and make assumptions. Since my explanation is clearly insane gibberish with an evil, hidden agenda, please enlighten us with exactly what other events coincided exactly with the HC season dates that would properly explain the sudden, long-term net drops in Live DDO server populations.


Why did the Live server populations not go back up when the HC players returned? Gee... maybe from the non-HC players on live who got frustrated with the lack of LFMs and groups and quit at about the same rate as the HC players returned to Live?

Remember, the blue line on the graph shows the average population for all of the Live servers combined whereas the orange line shows the average population for the single HC server. 500 players / 8 servers is only about 60 players per Live server. All it takes for HC to have a measurable, long-lasting negative effect on the average population of the Live servers is for ~50 non-HC players per server to quit due to the lack of LFMs and groups on Live each time.


I wonder how many more ~500 average population drops DDO can endure before a critical tipping point is reached?

[LT218]

The game is slowly losing players.
Why?

Because it is old. <--- real reason

However, a lot of folks will just blame whatever
they dislike for the loss.

But the true test is, was DDO losing players on a regular basis
overall BEFORE HCL1 ?

yes

will they be losing players after HCL stop (if they stop it)

yes

Will DDO keep losing players slowly no matter what?

yes


BECAUSE IT IS OLD

WOW is losing players <------ Because it is ... old.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
want a bunch of new players? yes?

Make a BRAND NEW D&D game.

Until then, stop blaming the slow loss of players over whatever
you personally don't like in the game.
Nice post. You're talking about the gentle, downward trend of any aging MMO which is definitely a thing, too. Unfortunately, you missed the point in this thread.

This is about the abnormal, sudden, unrecovered ~500 player average population drops on Live that followed each HC season.

[slarden]

......

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

There are many many variables. Your chart is focused on just the variable you desperately want to be the problem because you have an agenda.

With that said I am fine with hardcore being once a year. The devs have their own data - probably a much fuller picture - and they keep bringing hardcore back.

[LT218]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

There are many many variables. Your chart is focused on just the variable you desperately want to be the problem because you have an agenda.

Linking to that wiki page doesn't prove or disprove anything, yet you keep doing it. Kind of seems like you're the one with the bias and agenda.

I'm using numbers, trend graphs and some logical deductions backed by in-game observations and conversations with friends and guildies who have quit DDO during HC seasons.

Since I'm using a fallacy to make my point, you should easily be able to offer up some facts and evidence to the contrary, right? Let's see what you've got.



With that said I am fine with hardcore being once a year. The devs have their own data - probably a much fuller picture - and they keep bringing hardcore back.
Yeah, because the devs track record of having reliable data and making great decisions with it is so good...
https://www.ddo.com/forums/showthread.php/526193-Did-U50-1-have-a-2nd-loot-nerf-or-what?p=6454958&highlight=#post6454958

(https://www.ddo.com/forums/showthread.php/526193-Did-U50-1-have-a-2nd-loot-nerf-or-what?p=6454958&highlight=#post6454958)Remember, these devs you're talking about are the same devs that swore Inquistives were properly balanced and performing exactly where they wanted them to be according to their internal data for months. Then suddenly, they nuked Inquisitives from orbit because they were apparently overpowering by several orders of magnitude.

[Hogdog5]

There are many many variables. Your chart is focused on just the variable you desperately want to be the problem because you have an agenda.

Let's see. The population is fairly steady (save for a gentle decline) -> HCL opens -> population drops dramatically and doesn't recover.

Yeah, definitely has nothing to do with HCL.

Since we're linking Wiki pages, here's another one: Occam's Razor (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor). Yes of course there could be some other reason for the drastic population decline every time HCL opens. Yes of course correlation =/= causation. But I'm sorry, the evidence is overwhelming: HCL is draining the game's population. You've not provided a single "variable" that could be the cause of what we're seeing, whereas OP provided a fairly likely one - something that players who love HCL agree with. So rather than attacking someone's stance based on your flawed perception of their agenda, why not pose a reasonable explanation yourself?

[slarden]

Linking to that wiki page doesn't prove or disprove anything, yet you keep doing it. Kind of seems like you're the one with the bias and agenda.

I'm using numbers, trend graphs and some logical deductions backed by in-game observations and conversations with friends and guildies who have quit DDO during HC seasons.

Since I'm using a fallacy to make my point, you should easily be able to offer up some facts and evidence to the contrary, right? Let's see what you've got.



Yeah, because the devs track record of having reliable data and making great decisions with it is so good...
https://www.ddo.com/forums/showthread.php/526193-Did-U50-1-have-a-2nd-loot-nerf-or-what?p=6454958&highlight=#post6454958

(https://www.ddo.com/forums/showthread.php/526193-Did-U50-1-have-a-2nd-loot-nerf-or-what?p=6454958&highlight=#post6454958)Remember, these devs you're talking about are the same devs that swore Inquistives were properly balanced and performing exactly where they wanted them to be according to their internal data for months. Then suddenly, they nuked Inquisitives from orbit because they were apparently overpowering by several orders of magnitude.

I am not claiming cause and effect as you are. I am simply pointing out there are MANY variables.

I just see a bunch of people with their underwear all tied up in knots because people are getting rewards and achievements on hardcore. They want to believe hardcore is the problem and want to convince everyone else it is.

What I see when I look at the chart is a spike on activity when the pandemic started and a decline back to pre-pandemic levels. I don't claim it to be the full story but it's part of it for sure. Also note the first sharp decline started in the summer - happens every year with or without hardcore. The second sharp decline happened about the time things started opening in large #s and people started getting vaccinated. Those variables would also need to be considered as possible factors as well - not just hardcore.

All I know is on Sarlona we have public raids and the past 2 seasons raids fired 100% during hardcore season. So anyone that wants to come out and raid or quest with people can do so. Yet even so people claim there is no raiding or grouping on Sarlona due to hardcore - complete BS.


Let's see. The population is fairly steady (save for a gentle decline) -> HCL opens -> population drops dramatically and doesn't recover.

Yeah, definitely has nothing to do with HCL.

Since we're linking Wiki pages, here's another one: Occam's Razor (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor). Yes of course there could be some other reason for the drastic population decline every time HCL opens. Yes of course correlation =/= causation. But I'm sorry, the evidence is overwhelming: HCL is draining the game's population. You've not provided a single "variable" that could be the cause of what we're seeing, whereas OP provided a fairly likely one - something that players who love HCL agree with. So rather than attacking someone's stance based on your flawed perception of their agenda, why not pose a reasonable explanation yourself?

I think summer and pandemic impact are actually very simple answers. No there is no "evidence" that hardcore is the problem. Sure I know some people protest hardcore by not playing during hardcore- a very tiny tiny group on Sarlona. It's a self-inflicted problem because they don't like hardcore - not a real problem. From personal experience, I played more ddo during the lockdown and I played ddo less once I was vaccinated because I could return to other things I enjoy.

There are also people like me that play the same on live as usual and additional time for hardcore because it's fun and challenging. People have so much fun in hardcore - evident in guild chat, party chat, everywhere.

Anyhow it seems even hardcore players only want one season a year - seems like a fairly simple solution but I am also sure SSG likes any additional revenue they get from hardcore seasons which is why they keep putting them out so fast. Would be better to focus on lobbying for one season per year rather than this cause and effect nonsense that can't be proved and is ignoring all the other significant variables at play. That is something I am sure most players would get behind.

[LT218]

I am not claiming cause and effect as you are. I am simply pointing out there are MANY variables.

I just see a bunch of people with their underwear all tied up in knots because people are getting rewards and achievements on hardcore. They want to believe hardcore is the problem and want to convince everyone else it is.
Ahh... so you've got nothing. Thank you, please drive through.

[slarden]

Ahh... so you've got nothing. Thank you, please drive through.

Your chart tracks perfectly with how my game play was impacted by covid. At first my play increased about the time the surge on the chart shows. Then as summer arrived my play declined. When I was vaccinated once again my play declined because I could return to some of my other activities.

I don't pretend that is the full answer, but I think covid, summer and the vaccinations are all variables that impacted play time and the big shifts on the chart correspond with the covid outbreak, arrival of summer and when vaccinations were in full gear.

[Inanout]

The next Hard Core will tell if it is an unarguable trend or coincidence.

[cdbd3rd]

Conversations about things going on in Hardcore or things that only affect Hardcore -> Hardcore forums

Discussions about Hardcore itself and its place in the overall game -> General

I think that's pretty true of all the topic forums too.


This makes a lot of sense and sounds like a pretty good general rule for now.

Yer agreeing with Droid??!?? Droid makes SENSE!?!?

Now I KNOW the world is coming to an end. :D

[[ Totally teasing, D. :) ]]

[zebidos]

I hope in next HC league they dont let people run over level.

if you are level 8, you should be restricted to running level 8 dungeons or above, not level 6 on elite/reaper.

[Lencrennis]

It doesn't show anything except your bias on the subject. Read the wiki article which clearly demonstrates the logic fallacy of ignoring all variables except two.

Oh, come now. He's obviously right.

[LT218]

I cannot stress it often enough, ONE hardcore season per year should be the maximum
And it should only run for 30-45 days to minimize the attrition on Live servers.

90 days is a long time for the LFM scene on the Live servers to be reduced given how unhealthy the server populations already are. It's hard to blame anyone for quitting when they struggle to find LFMs for a 3-month period every 6-9 months.

[fatherpirate]

The cure nobody wants because they do not want to be bothered to rename their guilds and characters
Mash ALL servers into ONE server, everyone and all guilds get a random temp name and a free
rename token.

Then make a separate HC Server.
It periodically has a league event for prizes. (need to make a fresh toon to play the event)
Any prizes are for that server only. NOT ACCOUNT WIDE
Server stays up.
No transfers allow in or out of the server.
Everything in the HC server stays there.
The only folks there are the ones who want to be there.
All standard HCL rules except, players in a party can rez a dead
players for 2 minutes before they go to the dead lands.
Hirelings can not do it.
There is a banker in the dead lands to deal with gear of dead players
(What happens in the HC Server stays in the HC Server)
(The only players here will be the ones that have no interest in your raid group)

VIP only
30 day passes can be had in the coin store. (200-400 coins ?)
(does not give VIP, just server access)

DONE DEAL
ALL FIXED
Your prayers have been answered !

But players will hate this because this has absolutely nothing
to do with players magically disappearing because of HCL.

This is about a certain group of well invested players
that hate anything that they think might disrupt their
raid play. Regardless of what other players want.
How dare you like something else !

So I say, put up or shut up.
Support a server merge (to fix the problem you keep claiming exists)
or admit that you just want HCL removed because you have no interest in it.

[Kovalas]

And it should only run for 30-45 days to minimize the attrition on Live servers.

90 days is a long time for the LFM scene on the Live servers to be reduced given how unhealthy the server populations already are. It's hard to blame anyone for quitting when they struggle to find LFMs for a 3-month period every 6-9 months.

LFM scene on Ghallanda is practically zero whether HC is running or not unfortunately.

[fatherpirate]

LFM scene on Ghallanda is practically zero whether HC is running or not unfortunately.

exactly

That is why we should all support a server merge

[slarden]

Oh, come now. He's obviously right.

The chart tracks perfectly with how my game play was impacted by covid. At first my play increased about the time the surge on the chart shows. Then as summer arrived my play declined. When I was vaccinated once again my play declined because I could return to some of my other activities.

I don't pretend that is the full answer, but I think covid, summer and the vaccinations are all variables that impacted play time and the big shifts on the chart correspond with the covid outbreak, arrival of summer and when vaccinations were in full gear.

When I am on hardcore I see so many people having a great time. It's hard to imagine that doesn't result in customer satisfaction and retention among the participants. These type of arguments always ignore the alternate scenario that not doing hardcore could cause attrition.

Honestly I think even hardcore players agree one 90-day season per year is enough. I am convinced most of the anti-hardcore forum lobbyists are really just upset about others getting rewards for something they choose not to participate in. So much sour grapes over something so fun and awesome.


LFM scene on Ghallanda is practically zero whether HC is running or not unfortunately.

The scene is better on Sarlona. I lead public raids and I don't notice much difference in raid participation or lfm during hardcore season. It always slows down a bit during summer - that is nothing new. It could be certain servers and times of day are more impacted than others, but it's certainly not dead on Sarlona. Most people I know that participate in hardcore also run on live while hardcore is active.

Ironically we had some of our largest turnouts during hardcore season and had to develop a plan to run 2 raid groups at the same time.

[LT218]

LFM scene on Ghallanda is practically zero whether HC is running or not unfortunately.
Yeah, that's kind of what got me started on looking at the long-term population graphs.

The attrition hits from 4 HC seasons combined with all the other usual factors over the past 1.5 years has taken Ghallanda from having a fairly busy LFM scene to a very sparse one. Multiple end-game guilds on Ghallanda have closed up shop, the end-game raiding talent pool has dried up, and even the more casual guilds are starting to struggle with membership numbers lately.

Maybe it's not as bad on other servers, but prior to the HC leagues, Ghallanda appeared to have one of the healthier raiding and LFM scenes among the servers. Now, not so much.



exactly

That is why we should all support a server merge
Sure, it would be great if SSG would get off their arses and put some serious effort into merging the servers. I'm not holding my breath on that though. That's a stinky, long-dead horse that has been beaten over and over on these forums. Posting it over and over in the same thread won't make it any less stinky nor dead.

Merging servers at this point has a very high degree of technical difficulty, especially in light of all the broken/spaghetti code. Given that SSG cannot get even simple things right on the first, second or even third try these days, what do you think the chances are of them not screwing up and corrupting all our character data? I bet Wayfinder peeps have a pretty good idea.

Additionally, merging the Live servers would be nothing more than a temporary, stop-gap fix if SSG doesn't do something to prevent losing several hundred players after every HC season. Merging servers might slow the attrition down, but that's still just treating the symptoms, not the disease.

[Loriega]

my 2c
You can't say it's because of hardcore the game is losing players. The graph might suggest it but it's hardly the #1 reason.
I'd say the top reasons are lag, burn out, bugs, missing support. Not in that order. And lack of people to play with which HC attributes to.
I recently started playing on another server that, despite its lower numbers on paper has more LFMs going and a friendlier population than my main server.

I, for one, didn't leave the game because of hardcore season 4. I was super bored, stopped playing for 2 weeks and then saw HC S4 was running and returned.

1 hardcore season / year is enough imho. It's stressful. You can't die means you have to pay very close attention, always.

I loved HC3 and yes the extra lives made it feel less hardcore but then again HC4 with no extra lives made it feel too hardcore. I reached my 5k goal and missed the 10RP goal because at the end of HC not many people play anymore. And those who do are mostly people running elite for their 5k. Esp EU times are a ghost town. I died to a champ reaper. 1 shot.

What I liked about HC is players from all servers play on 1 and most know their stuff and the mentality is different.
I raided in another game at the top level and that mentality reminds me of that.

[John3000]

I cannot stress it often enough, ONE hardcore season per year should be the maximum (I would suggest that as a summer event).
And I suggested long ago to change the FTP model of DDO in a dynamic system, content that is 2 years (?) or older should turn into FTP.
A one-time code that makes everything FTP for a limited time is nothing more than a flash in the pan but that SSG did it shows also that FTP still can attract new players.
If you want a constant inflow of new players (or return of old players) you need a model that makes DDO attractive for players who even don't want to pay anything for DDO.
I think most players who start a game as FTP players with the option to pay nothing at all will start to pay money if they like the game and if they get fair and attractive offers.
But also players who don't pay money by themself are important because for a certain number of non-paying players you have a certain number of players who pay for the game.
I'm convinced that the so-called whales swim with the swarm of small fishes.
No one invests money in a dead game...
DDO still has die-hard players like me but also such players die out one day.
The biggest problem is that DDO needs one day a well-made remake with a new game engine that is supported by the big players like AMD and NVidia.

+1 On making old content FTP after a while to reduce new player barriers. Game needs regular influx of new players.

Although Hardcore is fun and is closest thing yet to megaserver with it's numerous LFMs, at least during the first few weeks.

[LT218]

my 2c
You can't say it's because of hardcore the game is losing players. The graph might suggest it but it's hardly the #1 reason.
Actually, I can and did. The graphs seem to indicate that it is the #1 reason. Nothing else in the past year has caused sudden, unrecovered 400+ player population drops on the Live servers in such short amounts of time. In fact, outside of the Hardcore seasons, the Live server populations remained relatively flat and even went up slightly when some of the new content was released. That's basically the entire point of my OP.

Sure, the other usual suspects like lag, nerfs, mediocre new content, etc. all cause player attrition. The difference is, the attrition from those other things results in a gradual downward sloping trend for the Live populations. HC causes a stair-step drop.

[CaptainSpacePony]

I agree - as someone who participates in every HCL I really only want 1 per year. It is a lot of work and is very time consuming and I get nothing done at all on my live server, its a wonder the raiders hate HCL - it is all consuming. It would be nice if it were a set time every year so we could all plan for it and make schedules around it, like any major event, or comiccon it would be nice to be able to plan a year in advance.

I agree with Mary's agreement with Chaka

[BDog77]

I hope in next HC league they dont let people run over level.

if you are level 8, you should be restricted to running level 8 dungeons or above, not level 6 on elite/reaper.

Also, elite/reaper only. Let's make it a real hardcore server!

[slarden]

Actually, I can and did. The graphs seem to indicate that it is the #1 reason. Nothing else in the past year has caused sudden, unrecovered 400+ player population drops on the Live servers in such short amounts of time. In fact, outside of the Hardcore seasons, the Live server populations remained relatively flat and even went up slightly when some of the new content was released. That's basically the entire point of my OP.

Sure, the other usual suspects like lag, nerfs, mediocre new content, etc. all cause player attrition. The difference is, the attrition from those other things results in a gradual downward sloping trend for the Live populations. HC causes a stair-step drop.

You can say it all you want and it still doesn't make it right as it ignores all other impactful variables.

The chart tracks with 3 big events - the covid pandemic (stair step up) , the start of summer (stair step down #1 which is an ongoing annual thing) and mass vaccinations (stair step down #2).

I don't believe your conclusions are even close to right and I think the macro events happening in the world were more impactful than hardcore season. Anyhow the notion that the population would drop after hardcore season because of hardcore season is kind of non-sensical really.

[LT218]

You can say it all you want and it still doesn't make it right as it ignores all other impactful variables.

The chart tracks with 3 big events - the covid pandemic (stair step up) , the start of summer (stair step down #1 which is an ongoing annual thing) and mass vaccinations (stair step down #2).

I don't believe your conclusions are even close to right and I think the macro events happening in the world were more impactful than hardcore season. Anyhow the notion that the population would drop after hardcore season because of hardcore season is kind of non-sensical really.

Sure, keep telling yourself that. It won't make it right.

Clearly it was 100% complete coincidence that the average Live server populations dropped pretty much exactly as much as the HC population jumped up (twice). I'm sure it was also completely coincidental that at no other point during the past year were there any significant stair step drops.

If you'd read, which you clearly didn't, instead of sticking your head in the sand, you'd realize I've already explained how/why the Live population never recovers from HC drop.

If summer causes stair step drops in population, where's the stair-step for June '21? *Mass* vaccinations didn't happen overnight. Those would have resulted in a more gradual drop over the course of a few months, not a stair-step in 2 weeks that coincidentally aligns with HC.

It's okay though. You do you and enjoy your future HC seasons as they continue to usher the Live servers into maintenance mode. It's not like SSG is ever going to prioritize long-term population health over short-term gains anyway.

[fatherpirate]

Of course you did not take in account that there is a sizeable group of players
that only play HCL ?

Of course not.

During the rest of the year, they don't exist on your chart.
HCL starts and there is an up turn in players (they show up now)

HCL ends and they leave - wow look at that down turn !

HCL must be killing my raids on my favorite server!

MAYBE - you should account for the, rather sizable 'seasonal' players.

in other words, when HCL starts and you don't see folks leaving the game
at that point? They really are still leaving, it is just countered by the 'seasonal' players.
Then when the seasonal players leave (to return later) you get to see
the aftermath of all the players that were leaving regardless of HCL.

HCL does not cause players to leave, it just conceals how many players are leaving during that time
block and when the seasonal players leave - then you can see how many left WHILE HCL is going.

You didn't see this because you were only looking for what you already decided was happening.

Have a great day !

[Hogdog5]

You didn't see this because you were only looking for what you already decided was happening.

See post #39. You can spin it or justify it however you'd like, but there's no denying that each season (for whatever reason), the population drops and doesn't recover. Maybe it's summer break, maybe it's vaccines, or maybe it's an aligning of the planets. Whatever the reason is, it's happening. And it happens right at the beginning of HCL.

[donblas]

Also, elite/reaper only. Let's make it a real hardcore server!

I'm pretty sure SSG wants people to play on hardcore and spend money. I can't see how this suggestion meets that wish.

[slarden]

See post #39. You can spin it or justify it however you'd like, but there's no denying that each season (for whatever reason), the population drops and doesn't recover. Maybe it's summer break, maybe it's vaccines, or maybe it's an aligning of the planets. Whatever the reason is, it's happening. And it happens right at the beginning of HCL.

There was also a massive coronavirus lockdown bubble and declines were certain once people could get out of the house and return to their other activities.

Population before the pandemic was below 1500 and now even during the summer population matches pre-pandemic levels in February 2020 when those summer #s would typically be the lowest. That just isn't indicative of a massive drop due to hardcore season.

Elder Scrolls Online also declined after the vaccine rollout about the same time the live + hardcore populations in total started declining: https://mmo-population.com/r/elderscrollsonline

[SerPounce]

You can say it all you want and it still doesn't make it right as it ignores all other impactful variables.

The chart tracks with 3 big events - the covid pandemic (stair step up) , the start of summer (stair step down #1 which is an ongoing annual thing) and mass vaccinations (stair step down #2).

I don't believe your conclusions are even close to right and I think the macro events happening in the world were more impactful than hardcore season. Anyhow the notion that the population would drop after hardcore season because of hardcore season is kind of non-sensical really.

I'm not sure I totally buy this, but I do think it's a fair point. We should be careful about seeing patterns where we're inclined to do so.

I still think the lack of pick up groups is a big reason newer/returning players leave and that the further reduction of such groups during hardcore exacerbates this problem. The numbers are at the very least consistent with this interpretation also. Static(ish) groups and public raids are great, but new/returning casual players want to be able to log in when it works for them and run something with a group of vaguely like minded people. That's not something that current ddo server pop support well. It also creates a sense of "dead game" which is also a turn off. Particularly IMO when the LFM list is <1 page.

Just speaking for myself I'm (maybe) coming back from about a 6 month break. It wasn't all about grouping, but that was a significant part. Sure maybe I'm just projecting my own concerns on the wider off-and-on player base, but I don't think I'm that weird in this regard.

Also LFG Sarlona.... ;)

[Hogdog5]

There was also a massive coronavirus lockdown bubble and declines were certain once people could get out of the house and return to their other activities.

The population stayed relatively stable throughout, and then dropped dramatically right at the start of each HC season. I'm just finding it difficult to attribute that to anything other than HCL. We'll have to wait and see if the pattern continues when the next HCL season starts.


That just isn't indicative of a massive drop due to hardcore season.

No, but this absolutely is:

https://i.imgur.com/ooggORq.png

[Arctigis]

You can say it all you want and it still doesn't make it right as it ignores all other impactful variables.


Sure, all knowledge is provisional. However, using Occam's Razor we can say that the most
probable cause is that posited by the OP. The macro events put forward by yourself don't
match the evidence anywhere near as well. That doesn't make them 'wrong' per se but we
have to work with the balance of probabilities here as we won't ever be able to find out why
people left the game.

[fatherpirate]

It is wise to understand, different folks have different goals.

Most players - want to be entertained
Some players - want to 'win'
Developers - want to keep their job
PR folks - want to keep players playing - to keep their job
Accountants - want players to pay ... as much as possible - to keep their job
Forum mods - want everyone to be nice or S T F U - to keep their job
Owner - want to make as much money as possible for the least investment

Do you see a pattern? [ to keep their job ]

If you understand this then you know what purpose the forum are for.

For the company to create hype to sell content.
To catch a bug or issue that was missed.
For players to 'feel' like they are part of a family (your not on the payroll so your not)
and for players to let off steam when we don't like one of their choices.

The forums are NOT for our input.
If the company wants input, they have another company do a targeted survey.

Why bring this up?
So maybe a few folks will lighten up on other peoples opinions and ideas ...
it is not like SSG will use them.

Individually we have less say on the direction of this game
than the janitor that cleans the SSG office.
(the janitor MIGHT be invited to a company wide meeting, we won't)

so

Don't worry,
Be happy.

[LT218]

Of course you did not take in account that there is a sizeable group of players
that only play HCL ?

Of course not.

During the rest of the year, they don't exist on your chart.
HCL starts and there is an up turn in players (they show up now)

HCL ends and they leave - wow look at that down turn !

HCL must be killing my raids on my favorite server!

MAYBE - you should account for the, rather sizable 'seasonal' players.

in other words, when HCL starts and you don't see folks leaving the game
at that point? They really are still leaving, it is just countered by the 'seasonal' players.
Then when the seasonal players leave (to return later) you get to see
the aftermath of all the players that were leaving regardless of HCL.

HCL does not cause players to leave, it just conceals how many players are leaving during that time
block and when the seasonal players leave - then you can see how many left WHILE HCL is going.

You didn't see this because you were only looking for what you already decided was happening.

Have a great day !
Do you teach gymnastics for a living? That's an impressive amount of hoops and gyrations.

[slarden]

Sure, all knowledge is provisional. However, using Occam's Razor we can say that the most
probable cause is that posited by the OP. The macro events put forward by yourself don't
match the evidence anywhere near as well. That doesn't make them 'wrong' per se but we
have to work with the balance of probabilities here as we won't ever be able to find out why
people left the game.


The population stayed relatively stable throughout, and then dropped dramatically right at the start of each HC season. I'm just finding it difficult to attribute that to anything other than HCL. We'll have to wait and see if the pattern continues when the next HCL season starts.

The live server dropped suddenly which was offset by a sudden hardcore population increase but the chart is very misleading because it shows hardcore population as a separate chart buried at the bottom rather than total ddo population which would show total population and there would be no sudden drop with the full population.

that steady decline tracks perfectly with the usual summer population drops (season 3) and people getting back to normal activities after vaccinations (season 4). That is Occam's Razor right there and it tracks with esos which also had a server population drop after vaccinations started. Unless we are now saying the esos population drop was due to ddo hardcore season 4 because it lines up.

It also matches my personal play level perfectly. Once I was vaccinated I played ddo less not for any reason other than I was able to return to some of my other activities.

If you add the hardcore season 4 #s to the live #s what you will see is a much slower decline and you see some of that starting before season 3 and season 4 which obviously has nothing to do with hardcore.

There was never a sudden drop in ddo population if you add both #s together. There were gradual declines at the start of summer which happens every year and gradual declines as people received their vaccinations and returned to their normal activities. Occam's Razor.

[sturmbb]

Of course you did not take in account that there is a sizeable group of players
that only play HCL ?

Of course not.

During the rest of the year, they don't exist on your chart.
HCL starts and there is an up turn in players (they show up now)

HCL ends and they leave - wow look at that down turn !

HCL must be killing my raids on my favorite server!

MAYBE - you should account for the, rather sizable 'seasonal' players.

in other words, when HCL starts and you don't see folks leaving the game
at that point? They really are still leaving, it is just countered by the 'seasonal' players.
Then when the seasonal players leave (to return later) you get to see
the aftermath of all the players that were leaving regardless of HCL.

HCL does not cause players to leave, it just conceals how many players are leaving during that time
block and when the seasonal players leave - then you can see how many left WHILE HCL is going.

You didn't see this because you were only looking for what you already decided was happening.

Have a great day !

I am one of those players, unfortunately i have no interest in Live anymore. Maybe combining all of the servers into one Mega Server might bring some people back but i doubt i would be one of them. Someone else suggested that we have a HC server that is up all the time. As someone who just comes back for HC i'm in 2 minds over this.

i would be able to play it whenever i want which is good (rather than only being able to play for 90 days than leave the game until HC comes round again).

But would the appeal of it being permanently available reduce my enjoyment of the game.

Obviously i completely disagree with only having the season once a year and for only 30-45 days a year.

I do really enjoy this game but now i have sampled the adrenaline rush when playing on HC and having rewards to aim for, i just find Live dis-interesting, i have tried going back to live between season 2 & 3 and getting into the TR - Reaper scene but i just didn't find it enjoyable and also the groups i did join, There was always some super duper maxed out TR character that would steam roll the content. While leaving the rest of us in his wake. On HC you have to work as a team (which i believe personally is the founding concept of D n D (yes i know DDO is not D n D but it is a MMORPG) which is why i play the game.

I have played in Permadeath guilds on live (before HC) but it didn't give the same adrenaline rush, I did enjoy the grouping and working as a team though :)

I always think games should have more options so as to appeal to different types of gamers. I know a few people on here are trying to get rid of HC because there only thinking of themselves but how would they feel if everyone started trying to abolish what they love about the game (i.e. trying to get rid of raiding, TRing, Reaper content etc) I'm pretty sure they would not be happy about that.

[slarden]

Reaper scene but i just didn't find it enjoyable and also the groups i did join, There was always some super duper maxed out TR character that would steam roll the content. While leaving the rest of us in his wake.

I am really hoping Sev's reaper leadership idea will solve this issue. It will be good for people with less reaper points and those that want to revive some alts. Looking forward to hearing more about it and I hope it's as good as it sounds.

[Dark_Lord_Mary]

Everyone knows I love hardcore league but I completely agree its impact on the live servers is untenable - some live servers become ghost town during HCL. I get nothing done on Sarlona when HCL is active, I barely even log in there if a HCL season is going.

I also agree with the post about why HCL is such a draw for new or returning players - they can contribute and run with other single life new toons who also have nothing. As an experiment on my live server I took a 1st life, no ED, 0 Reaper point toon into an R5 quest with a bunch of lvl 30s.

I was on a paladin in heavy armor with 1300 hit points. I chain died. A champ hit me for 4k dmg. the Champs are so over tweaked i couldn't get near them. There's champs everywhere and being melee i couldn't do anything. Even when the mobs were held my dps was so low i couldn't kill them fast enough so would have to run. I died and died - I was the only one who died. I said to the party leader, as a new player, with nothing, on a 28 point new toon this is not fun at all.

This is why there's such a divide in this community - there are those of us, who like my main, who has 100 past lives and 100 reaper points and can join any group on live and contribute - but groups on live are hard to find.

On HCL the server is packed and everyone is a newbie with nothing - groups are easy to find and everyone is on 28 point builds with no gear so there's a reliance on group comp and dungeon crawling - which is what dungeons and dragons is all about.

Every hardcore league I make new friends. Its why I run Death Smile - I love meeting new people and helping them discover this game that I love.

On my live server I have not made a new friend on Sarlona in over a decade. In fact one of my friends who i used to raid with 10 years ago just came back and i said, 'hey man! nice to see you' and he replied 'who's this?'

a decade later and he didn't remember. the live server community is a small tight group of raiders and TR junkies who don't let new friends in easily.

I was on an alt on Sarlona and reached out to one of the high profile raiding guilds and asked their leader who is a popular streamer if i could join, I didn't identify myself - just pretended to be a new player - He turned me down and was not interested in making a new friend.

I guess I couldn't contribute so wasn't worth the time.

Yes some guilds have newbie nights and teaching groups but what i have discovered is the comradery, the openness to making new friends and running with new people is a HCL thing and not a Live server thing - and I think this is the biggest gulf between the two.

I have no idea how to fix it, or if it even could be fixed. There's an impassible wall of power between a 100/100 multi TR Reaper player and a 28 point newbie.

[LT218]

The live server dropped suddenly which was offset by a sudden hardcore population increase but the chart is very misleading because it shows hardcore population as a separate chart buried at the bottom rather than total ddo population which would show total population and there would be no sudden drop with the full population.
Nice try, but no. You're still not reading/comprehending the point being made and the data backing it.


Pro-tip - I knew there'd be people like you making this exact excuse, which is why I included the second graph in my OP. The blue line on that second graph is the TOTAL average server population, including the HC server.

It shows the average total population going up by ~100ish the first week or two of HC. That would be the HC only players showing up.

The problem is, the TOTAL population (including HC) still shows the big (500ish player) stair-step drop almost exactly 2-4 weeks after HC leagues start, which would be right about the time non-HC players on Live get tired of the lack of LFMs and start quitting. The average TOTAL population decreased by ~6.5 players per day during HC leagues.

The average total population actually increased by ~1-2 players per day during non-HC leagues, both times. The slight increase in average during non-HC is somewhat expected since SSG released Feywild (Nov. 1st), Peril of Planar Eyes (Apr. 19th), and Saltmarsh (Aug. 1st-ish).


Here's the numbers:


Event
Start
End
Starting Avg Total Pop
End Avg Total Pop
Net Change in Avg Total Pop
Avg Daily Change Rate



HC3
6/24/2020
9/22/2020
2411
1789
-622
-6.91


Post HC3 to Pre-HC4
9/22/2020
3/31/2021
1789
2089
300
1.58


HC4
3/31/2021
6/29/2021
2089
1545
-544
-6.04


Post HC4 to Present
6/29/2021
8/18/2021
1545
1657
112
2.24




HC is costing DDO more players than it brings in.

[slarden]

Nice try, but no. You're still not reading/comprehending the point being made and the data backing it.


Pro-tip - I knew there'd be people like you making this exact excuse, which is why I included the second graph in my OP. The blue line on that second graph is the TOTAL average server population, including the HC server.

It shows the average total population going up by ~100ish the first week or two of HC. That would be the HC only players showing up.

The problem is, the TOTAL population (including HC) still shows the big (500ish player) stair-step drop almost exactly 2-4 weeks after HC leagues start, which would be right about the time non-HC players on Live get tired of the lack of LFMs and start quitting. The average TOTAL population decreased by ~6.5 players per day during HC leagues.

The average total population actually increased by ~1-2 players per day during non-HC leagues, both times. The slight increase in average during non-HC is somewhat expected since SSG released Feywild (Nov. 1st), Peril of Planar Eyes (Apr. 19th), and Saltmarsh (Aug. 1st-ish).


Here's the numbers:


Event
Start
End
Starting Avg Total Pop
End Avg Total Pop
Net Change in Avg Total Pop
Avg Daily Change Rate


HC3
6/24/2020
9/22/2020
2411
1789
-622
-6.91


Post HC3 to Pre-HC4
9/22/2020
3/31/2021
1789
2089
300
1.58


HC4
3/31/2021
6/29/2021
2089
1545
-544
-6.04


Post HC4 to Present
6/29/2021
8/18/2021
1545
1657
112
2.24




HC is costing DDO more players than it brings in.

We will have to agree to disagree - I think you are wrong and ignoring important data points. ESO population pattern shows a similar decline that occurred with vaccinations - or was the ESO decline also caused by DDO hardcore since it happened the same time?

Meanwhile you also ignored the covid-19 bubble that happened and since then population has been rather steadily declining towards pre-pandemic levels. So declines occurred outside of hardcore season as well. For example there was a multi-month steady decline leading up to hardcore 3 - if that happened during a hardcore season you would obviously have blamed that on hardcore but instead ignore the declines that occur outside of hardcore league.

The devs have their own data and will make a decision based on that. I don't think you have anything, but maybe the devs will see something besides anti-hardcore nonsense.

There is no stair-step drop if you add up live + hardcore. 2400 at the start and 2400 July 3. Instead what you see is hardcore temporarily stopped the steady decline that started well before hardcore season 3. The population was over 2700 and started declining even before hardcore started. If anything hardcore stopped the decline at the beginning of the season.

[fatherpirate]

We will have to agree to disagree - I think you are wrong and ignoring important data points. ESO population pattern shows a similar decline that occurred with vaccinations - or was the ESO decline also caused by DDO hardcore since it happened the same time?

Meanwhile you also ignored the covid-19 bubble that happened and since then population has been rather steadily declining towards pre-pandemic levels. So declines occurred outside of hardcore season as well. For example there was a multi-month steady decline leading up to hardcore 3 - if that happened during a hardcore season you would obviously have blamed that on hardcore but instead ignore the declines that occur outside of hardcore league.

The devs have their own data and will make a decision based on that. I don't think you have anything, but maybe the devs will see something besides anti-hardcore nonsense.

There is no stair-step drop if you add up live + hardcore. 2400 at the start and 2400 July 3. Instead what you see is hardcore temporarily stopped the steady decline that started well before hardcore season 3. The population was over 2700 and started declining even before hardcore started. If anything hardcore stopped the decline at the beginning of the season.

He has a chart, so he knows he can not be wrong.
Time to move on.

[dredre9987]

The population stayed relatively stable throughout, and then dropped dramatically right at the start of each HC season. I'm just finding it difficult to attribute that to anything other than HCL. We'll have to wait and see if the pattern continues when the next HCL season starts.



No, but this absolutely is:

https://i.imgur.com/ooggORq.png


So on your graph here why only go back to Feb. 23? Go back farther and look for a larger pattern. Maybe you will either see more evidence for your claim and disprove others or maybe see a different pattern. Smaller sample sizes are not the best way to track patterns.

Not saying you are right or wrong btw just stating a small sample size can cloud things.

[dredre9987]

I hope in next HC league they dont let people run over level.

if you are level 8, you should be restricted to running level 8 dungeons or above, not level 6 on elite/reaper.

Why? if you go in a level 6 quest on Elite/Reaper it is now a level 8 dungeon. What am I missing?

[Hogdog5]

So on your graph here why only go back to Feb. 23? Go back farther and look for a larger pattern.

It's not mine. I don't think there is one that goes back further but that would definitely be cool

[dredre9987]

It's not mine. I don't think there is one that goes back further but that would definitely be cool

I just thought the graph was odd seeing as the end of Feb. has only around 1400 players. Makes you want to see the full scope of the data to analyse and get the full picture ;)

[Hogdog5]

I just thought the graph was odd seeing as the end of Feb. has only around 1400 players. Makes you want to see the full scope of the data to analyse and get the full picture ;)

Agreed

[dredre9987]

I'm really looking forward to the next hardcore league. It does wonders for DDO's long-term population health. Keep 'em coming!


https://i.imgur.com/DWgKJf3.png

Notice how the Live server population takes the expected dip when HC starts, but doesn't go back up to pre-HC levels after HC is done? Looks like the past two HC leagues have dropped the average post-HC server populations by several hundred per.


https://i.imgur.com/UswVffM.png


Keep up the good work, SSG! I bet you can crack the sub-1000 average mark soon. Lower numbers are better, right?

So on your graph here why only go back to Feb. 23? Go back farther and look for a larger pattern. Maybe you will either see more evidence for your claim and disprove others or maybe see a different pattern. Smaller sample sizes are not the best way to track patterns.

Not saying you are right or wrong btw just stating a small sample size can cloud things. And yes 1 year is a small sample size.

[LT218]

So on your graph here why only go back to Feb. 23? Go back farther and look for a larger pattern. Maybe you will either see more evidence for your claim and disprove others or maybe see a different pattern. Smaller sample sizes are not the best way to track patterns.

Not saying you are right or wrong btw just stating a small sample size can cloud things. And yes 1 year is a small sample size.
I would definitely have liked to go back further but I didn't make those graphs. Unless I missed something, those trend graphs are fixed to rolling 1-year periods and I couldn't change them to go further back. The source of the graph is attributed in the bottom right corner of each screenshot.

The explanation for the average population being 1400ish in Jan/Feb of 2020 is simple. That was right before SSG announced the F2P coupon code for most of the old content. It jumped up to 2600ish after that announcement. Then, 3 months later Hardcore3 started and dropped the average total server population by 500 in 1 month.

[LT218]

The devs have their own data and will make a decision based on that. I don't think you have anything, but maybe the devs will see something besides anti-hardcore nonsense.

There is no stair-step drop if you add up live + hardcore. 2400 at the start and 2400 July 3. Instead what you see is hardcore temporarily stopped the steady decline that started well before hardcore season 3. The population was over 2700 and started declining even before hardcore started. If anything hardcore stopped the decline at the beginning of the season.
LOL @ the devs data. Yeah, they most definitely have their *own* data and from everything we've seen lately, it often doesn't line up with the in-game reality.

No stair step if we add live + hardcore?

If there are no stair-step drops, then what, pray tell, are these?

https://i.imgur.com/vXRL2PG.png Note that this is from the average TOTAL server population graph and that box represents a 400+ player drop in 2 weeks after HC starts.

https://i.imgur.com/rOt6qSR.png Note that this is from the average TOTAL server population graph and that box represents a 300+ player drop in 2 weeks after HC starts.


Here's the total drop from start to finish of HC 3 and 4. Not stair step drops eh?

https://i.imgur.com/2LukSMt.png

You keep rambling on and on about gradual, normal, etc. and keep completely missing the point. At this point, I suspect you're just being intentionally oblivious to avoid acknowledging the numbers.

Do you even read, bro?

[dredre9987]

I would definitely have liked to go back further but I didn't make those graphs. Unless I missed something, those trend graphs are fixed to rolling 1-year periods and I couldn't change them to go further back. The source of the graph is attributed in the bottom right corner of each screenshot.

The explanation for the average population being 1400ish in Jan/Feb of 2020 is simple. That was right before SSG announced the F2P coupon code for most of the old content. It jumped up to 2600ish after that announcement. Then, 3 months later Hardcore3 started and dropped the average total server population by 500 in 1 month.

So nothing on the first 2 HCL's