Sharn named drops rate definitely broken

[Chilianna]

Some Dev, Lynnabel, please take a look at the drop rate of Sharn...

It is inconceivable not able to get 1 named item in 7-8 runs of No Refund with 4 party members. Same thing with House of Pain a couple lives ago...
Runs ranged from EE to R3...
Where is the law of averages?? with the current % drop rate, at least 1 should drop...

Please fix.

[LeoLionxxx]

Hmm, 28 pulls would make the chance of you NOT pulling any items be 6.633e-4?, or 0.00066% if I'm moving that decimal place correctly. If indeed your group pulled NOTHING then maybe there is something wrong.


Math:
7 runs * 4 ppl = 28 pulls
Chance of pulling nothing = 1 - 0.33 (Elite drop rate) = 0.77

0.77 ^ 28 = 6.6334629044966824718765264495212e-4?

Edit: See Eric_the_Dead's version below for the version that does not have the 3rd grade subtraction error.

[droid327]

I've been chasing my own white whale in FRS from House of Pain, pretty much since Sharn released...

I'm going to conservatively estimate I've run it at least 40-50 times on Elite without getting it. There's a 1-3% chance that actually happens, which isnt impossible by any means from a statistical sense.

Incredibly unlucky, yeah :|

But not so statistically unlikely as to suggest some systemic malfunction.

[Eric_the_Dead]

Hmm, 28 pulls would make the chance of you NOT pulling any items be 6.633e-4?, or 0.00066% if I'm moving that decimal place correctly. If indeed your group pulled NOTHING then maybe there is something wrong.


Math:
7 runs * 4 ppl = 28 pulls
Chance of pulling nothing = 1 - 0.33 (Elite drop rate) = 0.77

0.77 ^ 28 = 6.6334629044966824718765264495212e-4?

MathNerd is on the case!

1 - 0.33 = 0.67
0.67^28 = 1.34 x 10^-5, or just over 1 chance in 100,000.

Nice luck, op. But you should try the lottery.

[0ldschool]

Some Dev, Lynnabel, please take a look at the drop rate of Sharn...

It is inconceivable not able to get 1 named item in 7-8 runs of No Refund with 4 party members. Same thing with House of Pain a couple lives ago...
Runs ranged from EE to R3...
Where is the law of averages?? with the current % drop rate, at least 1 should drop...

Please fix.

Anecdotally, I was having horrifically bad luck farming Collective Sight out of Blown Deadline over the past 2 days. At least 16 LE chest openings (re-rolls, ugh) with not a single named item over the last 2 days. THis is a a lot smaller sample size than yours obviously, but it is uncommon enough that I started to wonder if something was wrong.

I started an LFM last night and had 4 or 5 kind souls join in and one of them had it drop with +3 mythic, and was kind enough to pass it. Another person got Collective Sight too. I still think that it is possible or even likely that I was ransacked and something was wrong with the mechanism that tells you that you are ransacked. I was careful to check for this by clicking on the chest a 2nd time after each run to see if the next run would be ransacked. I had run it quite a bit over the past 10 days or so but wasn't really keeping track of the runs, and I was even a bit surprised that I was not ransacked yet. This is just a guess. the chest contents had a very 'ransacky' feel to them.

[FlavoredSoul]

It took me over a year from Ravenloft's release to grind out a Leg Ring of Nightfall, regularly went 3+ full ransacks in a row with no named loot other than 2 or 3 morninglord weapons.

It's just bad luck.

[Mofus]

It's probably a luck issue, keep farming. Be glad your not hunting an SOS shard, some people have run von 5 & 6 hundreds of times with no luck. I hope you pull it soon, best of luck to all of us out there hunting shinnies.

[0ldschool]

It took me over a year from Ravenloft's release to grind out a Leg Ring of Nightfall, regularly went 3+ full ransacks in a row with no named loot other than 2 or 3 morninglord weapons.

It's just bad luck.

That's horrible. For me, it was Mist-Laden Vestments out of FBD. I was stuck for quite a while on that, which was brutal because I couldn't assemble my leg gearset without it. Nightfall actually took a long time too. I still really dislike that quest only because of the number of times I ran it and the pain it caused me :)

The lesson that I learned is to group. Put up an LFM and people will help. My one and only Leg. Shadowhail cloak came from a player who joined me on a late night LFM and obliterated everything in site in Reaper Amber, which I was ill equipped at the time to handle. I was basically an innocent bystander, and I got the boots to drop and they got the Shadowhail and passed it to me. That was a year ago, and I am grateful to this day for their help.

EDIT: I'll add that I make it a point to join other farming LFM's whenever I can. We need to support each other!

[0ldschool]

I've been chasing my own white whale in FRS from House of Pain, pretty much since Sharn released...

I'm going to conservatively estimate I've run it at least 40-50 times on Elite without getting it. There's a 1-3% chance that actually happens, which isnt impossible by any means from a statistical sense.

Incredibly unlucky, yeah :|

But not so statistically unlikely as to suggest some systemic malfunction.

Are you grouping? If not, put up an LFM. What server are you on? If it's Cannith, I'd be happy to help.

[Rauven]

I am so epically tired of RNG loot systems. I wish they would implement some form of RNG protection. I made a suggestion in another thread that involved a token system. They could also just apply an "every third run" system so named items show in the end reward list for all quests. At the very least every single reroll should increase our chances of getting a named item (I'd be happy with 100% on a third roll). The cynic in me says it's highly unlikely they'll do any such thing.

[myliftkk_v2]

I've been chasing my own white whale in FRS from House of Pain, pretty much since Sharn released...

Problem with the white whale analogy is when you do find it, it will turn you into a soulstone, so still, no luck. :p

[myliftkk_v2]

I am so epically tired of RNG loot systems. I wish they would implement some form of RNG protection. I made a suggestion in another thread that involved a token system. They could also just apply an "every third run" system so named items show in the end reward list for all quests. At the very least every single reroll should increase our chances of getting a named item (I'd be happy with 100% on a third roll). The cynic in me says it's highly unlikely they'll do any such thing.
That's original what 20th completion lists were supposed to do.

Of course, all of this relies on the priori that SSG actually knows how to implement a functional RNG system. Do we have independent proof of that? ;)

[GramercyRiff]

If you paid the full price for the biggest sharn package, it's really bad that you don't get ALL the items from the set. Then you have to farm the mythic and reaper versions.

Family Necklace does seem to be more rare than the other items. Umber Brim was difficult for me to get too. But I just figured I was unlucky. I haven't looted Sharn in some time though. Maybe things really have changed.

[Bluenoser]

Some Dev, Lynnabel, please take a look at the drop rate of Sharn...

It is inconceivable not able to get 1 named item in 7-8 runs of No Refund with 4 party members. Same thing with House of Pain a couple lives ago...
Runs ranged from EE to R3...
Where is the law of averages?? with the current % drop rate, at least 1 should drop...

Please fix.

I actually filed a ticket (I know, feel free to laugh) about Sharn drop rates. I did 2 at-level runs of entire chain on R1 and didn't get a single named item. With a supposed named drop rate of 30% on reaper 1 according to the devs, that's more than "bad luck", that's broken. I got the usual "we can't help you with that" response and an encouragement to file a bug report.

[MaeveTuohy]

Believing the drop rate on elite is 33% requires accepting SSGs word that this really is the drop rate and (perhaps most importantly) that they have actually coded it correctly. Neither may be true.

Ran a quest as a fire sorc. Ever notice how many flame born champs generate when you are fire specced? Anyway, we got seven in a row in one room where mobs respawn. It might have gone on endlessly, but we got bored waiting to see. Just dumb luck? Not really a one in twenty chance of any given champ? RNG can get stuck? No idea.

[Drunkendex]

I am so epically tired of RNG loot systems. I wish they would implement some form of RNG protection. I made a suggestion in another thread that involved a token system. They could also just apply an "every third run" system so named items show in the end reward list for all quests. At the very least every single reroll should increase our chances of getting a named item (I'd be happy with 100% on a third roll). The cynic in me says it's highly unlikely they'll do any such thing.

Believe me, you're not only one.

Since KotB release I ransacked epic hobgoblin quest 3 times, got every named from it except rage use gloves multiple (3+) times. Similar with heroic Bonegrinder quest, ransacked it 4+ times to get heroic light armor with no luck.

I suggest getting some form of guarantied named loot after certain number of runs. (example, if you ransack quest, on 8th NPC reward you have chance of getting named loot from that quest in loot list) I mean, THROW US A FRICKING BONE SSG!!!

Let's look at packs which are getting epic version soon (Delera and Cata), in them you complete chain and get your choice of number of named, I never ha any frustration in that system, because I had some control over what I got.

[C-Dog]

Believing the drop rate on elite is 33% requires accepting SSGs word that this really is the drop rate and (perhaps most importantly) that they have actually coded it correctly. Neither may be true.
I'm among the first to point out that "really bad luck" doesn't mean the RNG is broken, and, with all the dice flying around, "really bad luck" in something noticeable is almost guaranteed to happen to someone (or several someones). However...

I've made 8 circuits of the KotB quests on EE, looking for a Horseshoe. While that alone is (probably) just bad luck*, I think I've seen about 3-4 named items drop in those 64 runs. And, no, at less than 1 run/day, I should not have hit ransack.

It's not impossible that something is borked. It'd be nice if someone took the time to confirm that, yes or no.

(* I've seen an old, rare crafting item, a Luck Blade(!), and maybe(?) a Portable Hole, but no Horseshoe, which is the one thing keeping that alt from ER'ing. :p)

[MaeveTuohy]

I'm among the first to point out that "really bad luck" doesn't mean the RNG is broken, and, with all the dice flying around, "really bad luck" in something noticeable is almost guaranteed to happen to someone (or several someones). However...

I've made 8 circuits of the KotB quests on EE, looking for a Horseshoe. While that alone is (probably) just bad luck*, I think I've seen about 3-4 named items drop in those 64 runs. And, no, at less than 1 run/day, I should not have hit ransack.

It's not impossible that something is borked. It'd be nice if someone took the time to confirm that, yes or no.

(* I've seen an old, rare crafting item, a Luck Blade(!), and maybe(?) a Portable Hole, but no Horseshoe, which is the one thing keeping that alt from ER'ing. :p)

And if they did, we would still have to believe they are being honest, or that they knew how to properly understand the coding for it. Just consider the recent Precision confession. At the end of the day, the only thing that we can be certain of is that the item did or did not drop for us.

[Rauven]

Believe me, you're not only one.

Since KotB release I ransacked epic hobgoblin quest 3 times, got every named from it except rage use gloves multiple (3+) times. Similar with heroic Bonegrinder quest, ransacked it 4+ times to get heroic light armor with no luck.

I suggest getting some form of guarantied named loot after certain number of runs. (example, if you ransack quest, on 8th NPC reward you have chance of getting named loot from that quest in loot list) I mean, THROW US A FRICKING BONE SSG!!!

Let's look at packs which are getting epic version soon (Delera and Cata), in them you complete chain and get your choice of number of named, I never ha any frustration in that system, because I had some control over what I got.

I've ransacked Hobgoblin Horde I don't know how many times looking for the Magnifying Lens. I have never seen them drop, not once, not even for other people in the group. I've run legendary No Refunds to ransack, sometimes on three characters per week, for weeks, and have only ever seen Legendary Sunslice drop once. One drop among over a hundred runs, and a wizard who is thinking about making an assassin (no, they didn't even have a rogue character at the time), won the roll and took it.

I agree with C-Dog, bad luck can happen. The dev's say that the drop rate on elite for newer content is 33%. We can believe them or not (belief is irrelevant) but it won't change what the stated drop rate is. The simple truth is there is no RNG protection whatsoever. However they do it, token system, named items in end reward list every third completion, increase drop chance as you near ransack, increase drop chance on each successive shard reroll, I don't really care, but I really wish they'd do something because the drop rates in the game suck. The RNG loot acquisition system is the primary reason I lose interest in playing. It's why most of my characters use Cannith crafted gear. I get fed up with their loot system and give up trying. Unfortunately, that's also when I start to lose interest in playing.