Do you think forum polls really give a true representation of ALL DDO Players

[Noir]

Do you think forum polls really give a true representation of the entirety of the the DDO player base?

Given that the majority of DDO players do not participate in the DDO Forums,
and that the players that do participate in the DDO forums are probably more
prone to be meta chasers and power gamers.

Where as the majority of the players are probably more casual players that are not effected as much
by changes in the meta or changes to the TR systems, and are less concerned about those impacts on the game.
( If they were concerned they would do like the rest of us and frequent the forums, live-streams, and social media postings to stay informed )

Also you can't overlook the impact of "sock" accounts on forum polls.

Given all these factors.
Do you really feel that forum polls represent a true picture of what the majority of DDO players feel is important?

I realize this poll in itself is ironic but it will at least be a capsule of what the forum participates feel towards the validity of forum polls.

[MaeveTuohy]

Yes, if the sample size is 100+ and there are posted comments to support and illuminate the reasons.

[Kinerd]

i think true and false are the wrong adjectives

i think some data is better than nothing

so if some data gives one answer and nothing gives its opposite, i will always go with the some data one answer

it could (and in fact will way more than never!) be wrong

but if one path has 70% success and the other has 30%, why are we fretting about the 30%?
are we so frail that we can't stand a 30% possibility of being wrong?
are we so frightened to be caught out much less than half the time?

for my money, and in point of fact my money is directly involved in this, no

[SuperNiCd]

Nah. I'm not sure they're even representative of what the players that use the forums think, since not all of them vote. And I doubt SSG pays all that much attention to them.

They're interesting once in a while though. But probably mostly to the players who post on the forum a lot.

[HungarianRhapsody]

I think that forum polls give a better view of the player base’s mood than random individual posters claiming that they know what “the people” really want.

eEspecially when the polling shows such an overwhelming tide of opinion against more levels to spread out the player base and make grouping even harder.

The fact that the poll doesn’t have the result you like doesn’t make it less accurate.

[Scortius]

I don't think "really a true representation" is an at all useful way to put this.

What would be meant by truly representing what even one person thought, anyhow? Or what was collectively thought by a group of people? People daydream, have passions, use reason, imagine lyrically, make numbered lists; which of these "truly represent" thought?

Yet here we are, and people want to discuss ideas and their reception and popularity.

Polls become limited data points that can be referred to when we discuss ideas. I think they can be quite useful and interesting.

Do you think there's anything in the category "gives a true representation of all players"?

[fatherpirate]

no - because

You would need a totally random sample of a reasonable % of active players.
Folks on the forums are not a random sample.

so if there was 50,000 active players (just need a number for example, have no idea
how many players the game has) you would need about 1000 of those players
randomly chosen as a sample. Not a subset of players, (forum posters that use English)

that is the short version, no desire to regurgitate the long official version.

[Inanout]

Players who do not use forums may have different expectations from the game.
Its like polling the swat team and saying you polling the police.

It would be interesting to have money total spent on account beside vote.

[Fenrisulven7]

No, polls do not give an true representation of the player base. Although this one will be self-refuting if a majority claim polls don't reflect the majority :cool: Hehe.

You could say that DDO forum polls reflect
1) people motivated enough to follow the DDO forums AND
2) people motivated enough to respond to a poll

But that's not even getting into push polls, leading questions, sample size, self-selection, and forum bullying and intimidation for giving the "wrong" answer.

Or the fact that many people on the forums appear to have very poor reading comprehension skills. It's shocking sometimes.



I still think forum polls are useful, but they do not give a true representation of the player base.

I would say the majority of the player base isn't even aware of, much less concerned about, the issues that have been brought up on the forums over the past few months.

[HungarianRhapsody]

Fundamentally, the desire of the player base really doesn’t matter, though. It’s the desire of the big spenders that is going to matter because SSG is going to cater to the players who spend $30,000 in a year rather than the players who spend $5 a month and don’t buy extras beyond that.

And if the whales will spend money on Legendary past lives, then that’s where the game is heading even if it is bad for the game as a whole.

[Enoach]

Well I would say the ones with obvious flaws in their premise don't give a true representation - but because they are flawed there is no chance of that happening even if 100% of the population participated.

[Aelonwy]

You could say that DDO forum polls reflect
1) people motivated enough to follow the DDO forums AND
2) people motivated enough to respond to a poll

this^



Fundamentally, the desire of the player base really doesn’t matter, though. It’s the desire of the big spenders that is going to matter because SSG is going to cater to the players who spend $30,000 in a year rather than the players who spend $5 a month and don’t buy extras beyond that.


and this^ ...although 30k a year?! Cripes.

[Noir]

Please don't steer this poll with a bias towards any existing poll.
That will only contaminate the results. This is just a question of the forum
user base thoughts of the "overall" validity of Forum Polls.

[C-Dog]

Not a chance.

First, it's undeniably only players who use the forums, and of those only the ones who use them while that particular poll is active, and of them only those who have time/interest to vote.

Second, it's only English speakers - and I don't know the numbers on what % are not, but that's probably not an insignificant % missing.

So, an emphatic, uncompromising "no".

[Fenrisulven7]

SSG is going to cater to the players who spend $30,000 in a year


and this^ ...although 30k a year?! Cripes.

Oh he's just trying to poke me.

Although as a "whale" who keeps the server hamsters fed, I can assure you that SSG has shown me no favoritism.

In fact, I think Cordo has gone out of his way to make sure I know not to expect any preferential treatment :o As it should be.




And if the whales -

That's MISTER Whale to you! Heh :)

[Faltout]

There is already an "official" answer on this:

The important thing to remember is that the voices on the forums represent the opinions of some people who play the game, but are often not representative of some nebulous "everybody who plays the game." In reality, I've found that there is rarely a "one player type"; rather, and similar to larger cities, there are pockets of various communities and interests with their own opinions and wants. This is also why it can be difficult to make a change that "everybody" will like. It's often best to make a change knowing that large sections of the population will like it, or because it needs to be done for other various reasons. Generally, people like to think that the way they play the game is how everyone else plays it, and that is rarely true.

In terms of the forums, there's also a difference between the number of people who post on the forums, the number of people who read the forums, and the number of people who end up being influenced by what other people read on the forums. The number of people who post is relatively small, the number of readers is fairly large, and the influence is significant.
This was 2 years ago. Now that the game population has shrunk, the forum population is an even larger percentage of the player base. I'd like to think that 200 votes are about 5% given that I see about 300 active people in the servers (for a total of 2400 players). The active posters are many more, so I'd bet that 30%-50% of the game population is in the forums. When I say "game population" I don't really count people that play once a month or log in daily to roll daily dice and doing nothing.

http://ddoracle.com/Traffic.html The DDOracle confirms that the player numbers are around what I observe. Looking at the weekly logins, you can see that the max number of active players per server is 500.

[Aelonwy]

Do you think forum polls really give a true representation of the entirety of the the DDO player base?

Given that the majority of DDO players do not participate in the DDO Forums,
and that the players that do participate in the DDO forums are probably more
prone to be meta chasers and power gamers.

Where as the majority of the players are probably more casual players that are not effected as much
by changes in the meta or changes to the TR systems, and are less concerned about those impacts on the game.
( If they were concerned they would do like the rest of us and frequent the forums, live-streams, and social media postings to stay informed )

Also you can't overlook the impact of "sock" accounts on forum polls.

Given all these factors.
Do you really feel that forum polls represent a true picture of what the majority of DDO players feel is important?


Just answering your thoughts...
I doubt any poll anywhere gives a 100% true representation of any polled group.

I follow and participate on the forums. I do not consider myself a meta-chaser, min-maxer, or power-gamer. I have 14 alts, I do TR occasionally. It takes me 1 1/2 to 2 months to go from 1-20 depending on how much I can manage to focus on one character and what's going on in real life. I break everything, slay everything, do all possible optionals. I've barely dipped a toe in Reaper. Just enough to say "I tried it, I still don't like it."

Sock accounts will always exist. And most likely there will be such on both sides of an issue.

There is only one way to know what the majority of DDO players feel is important and that would be for a dev instituted poll to be placed in the launcher... and even then, even then most likely a great many would not answer it and there would still be the issue of socks. ? So its like chasing a rainbow.

However, to echo an earlier poster, I would rather have some information from a forum poll however unreliable than to have only each person's anecdotal opinion. How many topics have you seen where people say "well everyone in my static group" or "everyone in my guild" or "everyone I've spoken with" feels such and such or wants such and such? I've seen this a lot. Like in every topic ever. At least a poll, however inaccurate, may give some insight. Because ALL these people could easily direct their static group, guild, friends, etc to the poll to make their opinions heard in a more tangible way than just hearsay.

[SuperNiCd]

I just think they probably have better data than polls.

For example, if 85% of polled players said "WE HATE GRIND!"

And the server statistics show that 80% of players TR every 1-6 weeks and and 60% buy hearts and XP pots...

If I were the developer I'd probably add another reincarnation system.

(Totally making these numbers up, by the way, but you get the point.)

[Memnir]

The forum isn't a true representation of ALL DDO players. Polls on the forum are even further off, and by-in-large only exist to confirm the biases of the poll's creator.

I very much hope that the Devs ignore(d) every player created poll that has ever been created here.

[Scortius]

Please don't steer this poll with a bias towards any existing poll.
That will only contaminate the results. This is just a question of the forum
user base thoughts of the "overall" validity of Forum Polls.

Contaminate? You just decided to fire up a poll on an extremely broad epistemological question that obviously has nothing to do with anything?

[Kutalp]

Absolutely not.

[nokowi]

It is impossible to have a true representation of nearly anything. That is an even higher bar than asking a jury if the prosecution has proven someone's guilt with 100% certainty. We settle for "without a reasonable doubt", because creating a metric that can't be attained to say nobody should be convicted of anything is total nonsense. Just like asking a poll, or any other realistic data source, to be a true representation.

What you see here on the forums is that people who don't understand information incorrectly use the idea that a data source is not perfect to try to imply it is meaningless whenever they do not like that data. This extends from a poll, to an opinion, to anything someone might write in these forums.

Someone here recently had the idea that one could not look at population over time, because population over time data was never perfectly accurate, and that one could only take a snapshot of population at one time when trying to determine how player population has changed over time. The idea that you can't look at population over time to learn about population over time is total nonsense. You have to look at player population over time to learn about player population over time. That should be painfully obvious.

You have to use all of the data sources you have to form best conclusions. Trying to ignore data one does not like is a tool for those who are only interested in their own opinion or position.

The correct question is "HOW ACCURATE" is a forum poll with n respondents, not "is it a perfect representation". Asking if it is a perfect representation is simply a way for everyone to agree to ignore all information they do not like. The idea that someone could create a troll account and vote a couple of times ignores the fact that everyone on each side of an issue could do that equally, and that the net result would likely be nearly the same percentages as if nobody had a troll account. Imperfect data is not a reason to ignore data.

Given that I've never once heard anyone here say that their position/opinion is over represented, which should happen a good portion of the time if players are so easily able to manipulate these polls, one can conclude that forumites here are extremely biased against data they do not like, and happy to neglect all data. The result is people without a grip on reality, who believe anyone that disagrees with them is a bad person, while anyone that agrees with them is a good person. Combining the things we agree or disagree over multiple topics, this is impossible to be true - yet it is the most common opinion expressed on these forums.

Discussion is nearly impossible in such an environment, as no information can ever reach the level to alter or change an opinion. No listening happens, and posts devolve into why the other person is a bad person because the forum population at large is unable to make a fact or logic based argument argument for their own opinion.

Make a poll about how accurate a forum poll is, and watch how many people say 0% accuracy because it is their belief that imperfect data is equivalent to no data.

A poll always says something. It never says nothing.

[janave]

I just think they probably have better data than polls.

For example, if 85% of polled players said "WE HATE GRIND!"

And the server statistics show that 80% of players TR every 1-6 weeks and and 60% buy hearts and XP pots...

If I were the developer I'd probably add another reincarnation system.

(Totally making these numbers up, by the way, but you get the point.)

This would assume that participants like the grind and are infinitely tolerant for more. While the reality could be that participants are just as sick of it already, kept going for array of [reasons], but not 100% determined to sign up for more grind.

[Gniewomir]

I just think they probably have better data than polls.

For example, if 85% of polled players said "WE HATE GRIND!"

And the server statistics show that 80% of players TR every 1-6 weeks and and 60% buy hearts and XP pots...

If I were the developer I'd probably add another reincarnation system.

(Totally making these numbers up, by the way, but you get the point.)

Personally i don't agree with this example. Imagine you're hungry, you're looking for fast-food or restaurant and the only thing in 10 miles radius is a single fast-food with burgers. Your options now are: either starve or eat burger, even if you don't like them. I think starvation is lesser evil and everyone would chose to eat this burger, even if you don't like them.

The game for a last few years is build around reincarnations. No alts support, no pvp support, no not much end game support until recently (it's not my opinion, but since people were talking a lot about it i guess they felt there was not enough end game to get involved) and a lot of reincarnations support (new types of reicarnations etc.). It's pretty obvious that if devs will push game into reincarnations then players might either reincarnate or stop playing/play less/ chose not measurable activities. And now statistics shows that everyone loves reincarnations and do them often, what might not be right, cause it's the only thing to do we're getting and we have not many other options. And buying xp pots means that we actually hate the grind and we're willing to pay for skipping a part of it.


It is impossible to have a true representation of nearly anything. That is an even higher bar than asking a jury if the prosecution has proven someone's guilt with 100% certainty. We settle for "without a reasonable doubt", because creating a metric that can't be attained to say nobody should be convicted of anything is total nonsense. Just like asking a poll, or any other realistic data source, to be a true representation.

What you see here on the forums is that people who don't understand information incorrectly use the idea that a data source is not perfect to try to imply it is meaningless whenever they do not like that data. This extends from a poll, to an opinion, to anything someone might write in these forums.

Someone here recently had the idea that one could not look at population over time, because population over time data was never perfectly accurate, and that one could only take a snapshot of population at one time when trying to determine how player population has changed over time. The idea that you can't look at population over time to learn about population over time is total nonsense. You have to look at player population over time to learn about player population over time. That should be painfully obvious.

You have to use all of the data sources you have to form best conclusions. Trying to ignore data one does not like is a tool for those who are only interested in their own opinion or position.

The correct question is "HOW ACCURATE" is a forum poll with n respondents, not "is it a perfect representation". Asking if it is a perfect representation is simply a way for everyone to agree to ignore all information they do not like. The idea that someone could create a troll account and vote a couple of times ignores the fact that everyone on each side of an issue could do that equally, and that the net result would likely be nearly the same percentages as if nobody had a troll account. Imperfect data is not a reason to ignore data.

Given that I've never once heard anyone here say that their position/opinion is over represented, which should happen a good portion of the time if players are so easily able to manipulate these polls, one can conclude that forumites here are extremely biased against data they do not like, and happy to neglect all data. The result is people without a grip on reality, who believe anyone that disagrees with them is a bad person, while anyone that agrees with them is a good person. Combining the things we agree or disagree over multiple topics, this is impossible to be true - yet it is the most common opinion expressed on these forums.

Discussion is nearly impossible in such an environment, as no information can ever reach the level to alter or change an opinion. No listening happens, and posts devolve into why the other person is a bad person because the forum population at large is unable to make a fact or logic based argument argument for their own opinion.

Make a poll about how accurate a forum poll is, and watch how many people say 0% accuracy because it is their belief that imperfect data is equivalent to no data.

A poll always says something. It never says nothing.

Signed, almost my point of view. Although, for the record, i votes "yes" cause i believe we do not have much better tools to check general playerbase opinion. We are not able to make in game reaseach to involve people not using forums. And on forum we can either make a poll or ask for opinions. I believe poll, unlike conversation, can involve players too lazy/not interested in writing longer posts, so the sample we got is much bigger.

[LightBear]

To many sock puppet accounts and trolls on this forum that like to steer this game into the ground.
Polls are an excellent way to frame the game direction.

[HungarianRhapsody]

To many sock puppet accounts and trolls on this forum that like to steer this game into the ground.
Polls are an excellent way to frame the game direction.
If you look at the other poll, the people who gave thoughtful comments against the level cap increase significantly outnumber the total people who even voted in favor of the level cap increase.

That’s pretty solid evidence that socks aren’t magically making the poll have a reversed result compared to actual forum participant opinions.

And for the “trolls” - it’s pretty clear that the most vocal people on the forums call anyone who disagrees with them a troll even if they’re just offering a thoughtful, honest opinion.

[LOOON375]

The forum isn't a true representation of ALL DDO players. Polls on the forum are even further off, and by-in-large only exist to confirm the biases of the poll's creator.

I very much hope that the Devs ignore(d) every player created poll that has ever been created here.

Yep this.
Forum polls are literally worthless in regards to player base and feelings on the game.

[Clemeit]

Was going to respond, but someone already summed up exactly what I was thinking:


The forum isn't a true representation of ALL DDO players. Polls on the forum are even further off, and by-in-large only exist to confirm the biases of the poll's creator.

[SuperNiCd]

Personally i don't agree with this example. Imagine you're hungry, you're looking for fast-food or restaurant and the only thing in 10 miles radius is a single fast-food with burgers. Your options now are: either starve or eat burger, even if you don't like them. I think starvation is lesser evil and everyone would chose to eat this burger, even if you don't like them.

The game for a last few years is build around reincarnations. No alts support, no pvp support, no not much end game support until recently (it's not my opinion, but since people were talking a lot about it i guess they felt there was not enough end game to get involved) and a lot of reincarnations support (new types of reicarnations etc.). It's pretty obvious that if devs will push game into reincarnations then players might either reincarnate or stop playing/play less/ chose not measurable activities. And now statistics shows that everyone loves reincarnations and do them often, what might not be right, cause it's the only thing to do we're getting and we have not many other options. And buying xp pots means that we actually hate the grind and we're willing to pay for skipping a part of it.


Player: "I hate grind and reincarnation. I'm buying XP pots to skip part of it."

Producer: "What I'm hearing is that you like having a super powerful character, and are willing to pay a premium to accelerate getting it. And you like to complain about grind. I can accommodate all three of those things with reincarnation systems, xp pots, and a user forum."

My point is that we can complain about grind all we want, have polls, etc. But as long as players keep grinding out PLs and paying extra for the privilege of getting them faster, we are probably just going to get more of them. This is, apparently, what people are voting for with their wallets regardless of how they vote in user polls.

If every player parked their main at cap and then waited for the next end-game pack or expansion to come out before they spent more money, what do you think the development focus would be? I kind of think we, the players, are going to have to break the cycle if less grind is really what the majority want.

[Aelonwy]

Was going to respond, but someone already summed up exactly what I was thinking:

I disagree, some polls, especially those for cosmetic or fluff desires could be useful to the devs for sales of such.

Example: the current poll about which permanent hire players might like for the Feywild Expansion hurts no one and really just gives an idea as to what players are looking for in a permanent hireling. E.g. something smaller than owlbear/shield guardian and something other than yet another fighter. Its not like the devs have to go with anything on the poll but there is still useful information to reap from it.

[Clemeit]

I disagree, some polls, especially those for cosmetic or fluff desires could be useful to the devs for sales of such.

Example: the current poll about which permanent hire players might like for the Feywild Expansion hurts no one and really just gives an idea as to what players are looking for in a permanent hireling. E.g. something smaller than owlbear/shield guardian and something other than yet another fighter. Its not like the devs have to go with anything on the poll but there is still useful information to reap from it.

A poll with a exhaustive range of options is one thing; a poll with two polarizing options that don't necessarily encompass the wide array of feelings towards a topic is another. Since no responsibility is placed on users to provide a fair and comprehensive poll, we're often left with a warped view of the truth, unduly polarized by a poorly constructed poll. And if the comments left on a poll are a better litmus test, it would be more constructive to leave the poll element out of it altogether.

[Aelonwy]

A poll with a exhaustive range of options is one thing; a poll with two polarizing options that don't necessarily encompass the wide array of feelings towards a topic is another. Since no responsibility is placed on users to provide a fair and comprehensive poll, we're often left with a warped view of the truth, unduly polarized by a poorly constructed poll. And if the comments left on a poll are a better litmus test, it would be more constructive to leave the poll element out of it altogether.

Agree to disagree. The last sentence of Memnir's post that you agreed with said for Devs to ignore "every player created poll that has ever been created here." Its just my opinion that, that is an absolutism with which I disagree.

[Clemeit]

Agree to disagree. The last sentence of Memnir's post that you agreed with said for Devs to ignore "every player created poll that has ever been created here." Its just my opinion that, that is an absolutism with which I disagree.

Ah, you've pointed out something I overlooked. You're correct; I don't agree with that part of the post. It shouldn't have been included in my original quote.

[Fenrisulven7]

My point is that we can complain about grind all we want, have polls, etc. But as long as players keep grinding out PLs and paying extra for the privilege of getting them faster, we are probably just going to get more of them. This is, apparently, what people are voting for with their wallets regardless of how they vote in user polls.

Good point. It also spotlights the tendency of people to Virtue Signal - they will come out for/against something in public because it makes them look and feel Righteous, and it costs them nothing.

It's just another weakness of polls in general, and it was driving PROFESSIONAL pollsters mad the last election (US) and referendum (UK), because people were telling pollsters one thing and doing the opposite

[fatherpirate]

The players on the forum lack one piece of information.

We don't know when the developers are reading the forums to find out what we prefer on an issue
or when the company has already made up it's mind on something and our wants are not
going to count.

They never tell us what is open to debate and what is set in stone
and they never will.

[Chai]

Fundamentally, the desire of the player base really doesn’t matter, though. It’s the desire of the big spenders that is going to matter because SSG is going to cater to the players who spend $30,000 in a year rather than the players who spend $5 a month and don’t buy extras beyond that.

And if the whales will spend money on Legendary past lives, then that’s where the game is heading even if it is bad for the game as a whole.

This.

The feedback culture change is complete. Soon enough "but you dont NEED it so its fine" will be the #1 phrase on the forum again for a bit. Now that the ability to generate revenue is fully un-tethered to any linear system, even if 80% of the entire player base reacted negatively to another cap increase, it would still happen because a very small percentage of top spenders will out fund the entire rest of the player base. This is how revenue increases as headcount decreases.

[Fenrisulven7]

This.

Except that I've already explained SSG does not cater to players who spent $30k last year.

Other than that, sure... great point.



And if the whales will spend money on Legendary past lives, then that’s where the game is heading even if it is bad for the game as a whole.

And this comment is biased against people who spend Money, when it should also include people who spend Time.

ie, it should also say "if players will spend TIME grinding out Legendary past lives, the that's where the game is heading...



Chai, you've had a bee in your bonnet about "P2W" that is affecting your judgement. When all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

You and HungarianRhapsody wind up demonizing people who spend too much Money on the game, when your complaints should be directed at people who spend too much Money and/or Time on the game.

Why can't you criticize both? Is it because you spend too much Time on the game ?



I know a guy who hasn't spent a dime on this game. Everything he's got he has "earned" by grinding 60 hours a week.

Except that he only has that much free time to grind because he is living in his parents basement, unemployed, letting them pay for his car, his insurance, his food, his electricity, his ISP.

So someone is still "paying to win", just not him.

[Memnir]

Its just my opinion that, that is an absolutism with which I disagree.
You're correct; I don't agree with that part of the post.I do apologize for taking a dip in the hyperbole-pool. I was in a mood, for whatever reason, and said something I don't even really agree with upon reflection. But... cest la vi, ya know? :)

I do still stand by the 1st part of that post, though.

[vryxnr]

I'm honestly surprised so many people have voted yes.

[Ghwyn]

No forum is ever a representation of the base. Most people just can't be bothered with forums and I don't blame them.

[Chai]

Except that I've already explained SSG does not cater to players who spent $30k last year.

Other than that, sure... great point.
.

The game is monetized by selling character power. Saying it doesnt cater to players who spend X amount is merely mincing words. The actual point being talked past here is regardless if the majority of players are against raising the cap, it will still happen, because the monetizing model dictates it will happen. It needs to happen in order to set up the next grind system that will be monetized.




Chai, you've had a bee in your bonnet about "P2W" that is affecting your judgement. When all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

You and HungarianRhapsody wind up demonizing people who spend too much Money on the game, when your complaints should be directed at people who spend too much Money and/or Time on the game.

Why can't you criticize both? Is it because you spend too much Time on the game ?

.

This is not a personal opinion, or a personal discussion. It is a fact I am pointing out. I worked for three companies who monetized games as such, and played/reviewed hundreds more.

If you do not see the pattern, then it is your objectivity in question here, not mine. I see the pattern pefectly, recognize it, and am on a first name basis with it. Been there, done that, bought the T-shirt, still wear the T-shirt lounging around the house from time to time.

This is how it works. TL;DR: version.
When the current grind monetization begins to slow down, its time to either add a new system on top of existing systems (straight up power creep) or directly increase the character power in the same form it can be bought (tomes for example). This keeps the payments coming in from the market audience who pays their way past the grind.

When this becomes hilarious is when people in the same market audience demand game balance. It will never happen in a game that sells character power. It simply cannot, when it takes a year to farm out what someone else can have in less than a day, straight cash. When those who spend the time finally do arrive on the scene, the goal-post-of-grind is moved even further out, as another system is installed to continue to monetize it.

The other reason why game balance cannot happen is with this many COMPLETELY SEPARATE grind systems, we have been able to cover up every weakness caused by min maxing. Go full or almost full DPS (60-80 AP) in the heroic AP lines, then use reaper AP, gear with persistent effects, and ED twists to cover up any possible way to kill the character other than massive single hit HP damage. We arent playing anything akin to regular D&D and havent been for quite some time. We're playing 3 tier gestalt. Its about to become 4 tier gestalt.

Now I know what the attempted counter argument will be. "But but Chai, Y U No like company make monies? My reply to that will illustrate how it has already been proven how big spenders will pay the same amounts of money for rarity alone, even with precisely and exactly ZERO increase in character power. Again I use the example of GW2 (which no doubt will be talked right past yet again). In that game people spend very high amounts of money to grind out character skins, mount skins, legendary weapon/armor skins, etc...simply due to the level of difficulty obtaining the items. Their characters are precisely and exactly ZERO PERCENT more powerful than anyone elses, who has the same armor stats but uses the regular armor skins. Players who play this way dub themselves "fashion wars" players. When the new grind system is put into the game, its for hard to obtain looks, not vertical character power progression.

I dont demonize anyone spending any money on the game. I point out how selling character power corrupts the game system integrity. I point out how it is not needed because folks who spend big money on micro-trans will do so for rarity as well as for QoL.
This is not a negative personal bias. It is objective fact. The only reason to strawman, then attack the strawman, is because the actual objective position cannot be refuted. There is no personal argument here whatsoever. Even those who are just fine with the practice of selling character power, when objective, understand how it corrupts game system integrity.




And this comment is biased against people who spend Money, when it should also include people who spend Time.

ie, it should also say "if players will spend TIME grinding out Legendary past lives, the that's where the game is heading...
.

Comment this is addressing was not made by me. Not including the click-link in the comment is a gross misrepresentation on your part to make it appear as if it was. Not a good look here, especially on a forum where people can scroll back up and clearly see the comment isnt mine.


I know a guy who hasn't spent a dime on this game. Everything he's got he has "earned" by grinding 60 hours a week.

Except that he only has that much free time to grind because he is living in his parents basement, unemployed, letting them pay for his car, his insurance, his food, his electricity, his ISP.

So someone is still "paying to win", just not him.


Why can't you criticize both? Is it because you spend too much Time on the game ?

Because the game system is not corrupted when it takes time to obtain character power. When money outside the game system can be used to become more powerful in the game bypassing YEARS of time, this corrupts the game system.

This is before we discuss how he only needs to take 60 hours a week due to the fact that the majority of the grind is only there due to people paying to bypass it necessitates adding more and more of it. If the game didnt sell character power, the person in your example would not have to take anywhere near as long to obtain it, as there would be no need to pile grind system after grind system after grind system on top of each other. Then it also wouldnt be a direct contradiction in logic to demand game balance - not having to worry about how balancing the game impacts revenue generation, balance issues/QoL issues could be addressed.

[Kinerd]

Good point. It also spotlights the tendency of people to Virtue Signal - they will come out for/against something in public because it makes them look and feel Righteous, and it costs them nothing.

It's just another weakness of polls in general, and it was driving PROFESSIONAL pollsters mad the last election (US) and referendum (UK), because people were telling pollsters one thing and doing the opposite

professional polls were collectively within 1% of the 2016 US presidential election

the issue with both of those events was that when a binary outcome is very near 50%, random error of +/- 3% can very plausibly change the outcome from 51-49 to 48-52. (this is not an issue here because our poll on the level cap is 80% no, and of course 80% - 3% is still much higher than 20% + 3%)

you're certainly not the only person to use the "shy Tory" as the explanation, but the real explanation is that there is no explanation - the outcome of significant, world-shaking events is sometimes just due to random chance

[Fenrisulven7]

professional polls were collectively within 1% of the 2016 US presidential election

the issue with both of those events was that when a binary outcome is very near 50%, random error of +/- 3% can very plausibly change the outcome from 51-49 to 48-52. (this is not an issue here because our poll on the level cap is 80% no, and of course 80% - 3% is still much higher than 20% + 3%)

you're certainly not the only person to use the "shy Tory" as the explanation, but the real explanation is that there is no explanation - the outcome of significant, world-shaking events is sometimes just due to random chance

No, the loser of the last election for US President was given 93% odds to win. She didn't even write a concession speech. But people said one thing to the pollsters and did another in the voting booth.

I do this for a living, with everything on the line. And I can say that professionally, polling data is not given the weight that you claim.


I would discuss it further, but I'm afraid that would invite a political discussion that would violate the CoC.

So, obviously, you are not going to be able to convince me otherwise, and I doubt I can convince you without getting in trouble. So, agree to disagree, I guess.

[psykopeta]

Do you think forum polls really give a true representation of the entirety of the the DDO player base?

Given that the majority of DDO players do not participate in the DDO Forums,
and that the players that do participate in the DDO forums are probably more
prone to be meta chasers and power gamers.

Where as the majority of the players are probably more casual players that are not effected as much
by changes in the meta or changes to the TR systems, and are less concerned about those impacts on the game.
( If they were concerned they would do like the rest of us and frequent the forums, live-streams, and social media postings to stay informed )

Also you can't overlook the impact of "sock" accounts on forum polls.

Given all these factors.
Do you really feel that forum polls represent a true picture of what the majority of DDO players feel is important?

I realize this poll in itself is ironic but it will at least be a capsule of what the forum participates feel towards the validity of forum polls.

I must say, using a poll to guess the utility of a poll is...weird

Most times non official polls get under 100 votes, and highest official DDO poll got... 300 ish votes, if they used that amount as measure of something, u can calculate depending your proportion, how much truth is in the results

After all they use the council which is a much smaller and biased section of players, as reference, soby definition any poll here could reflect DDO population more than that council, just by numbers

[Kinerd]

No, the loser of the last election for US President was given 93% odds to win. She didn't even write a concession speech. But people said one thing to the pollsters and did another in the voting booth.

I do this for a living, with everything on the line. And I can say that professionally, polling data is not given the weight that you claim.


I would discuss it further, but I'm afraid that would invite a political discussion that would violate the CoC.

So, obviously, you are not going to be able to convince me otherwise, and I doubt I can convince you without getting in trouble. So, agree to disagree, I guess.

93% odds to win is not a poll. the polls ended up at +3%, the margin ended up at +2%; the polls were within 1%

i didn't claim anything about "weight" so i don't know how to address that

[Aelonwy]

I do apologize for taking a dip in the hyperbole-pool. I was in a mood, for whatever reason, and said something I don't even really agree with upon reflection. But... cest la vi, ya know? :)

I do still stand by the 1st part of that post, though.

Understood. And I even agree with your initial statement with the qualifications that there are the rare, occasional polls here on the forums with no obvious bias. Though I concede that they are too few and far between. But yes a player forum poll cannot be blindly accepted as a perfect representation of the current player base. It can be an indicator but not an unequivocal fact. There are simply too many variables to have perfect results.

[HungarianRhapsody]

Except that I've already explained SSG does not cater to players who spent $30k last year.

Other than that, sure... great point.

You've claimed that they don’t cater to whales but that’s not the same.

They don’t have to ask you what you want to buy. They just have to put stuff up for sale that you’ll buy. And when those things are what most people in the game don’t like and don’t want and even when those things actively make the game worse, it won’t matter as long as some people are putting THAT much money in the game.

They don’t have to ask you what you want. They know that whatever it is, you’ll buy it as long as it’s more.


And this comment is biased against people who spend Money, when it should also include people who spend Time.

ie, it should also say "if players will spend TIME grinding out Legendary past lives, the that's where the game is heading...



Chai, you've had a bee in your bonnet about "P2W" that is affecting your judgement. When all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

You and HungarianRhapsody wind up demonizing people who spend too much Money on the game, when your complaints should be directed at people who spend too much Money and/or Time on the game.

Why can't you criticize both? Is it because you spend too much Time on the game ?



I know a guy who hasn't spent a dime on this game. Everything he's got he has "earned" by grinding 60 hours a week.

Except that he only has that much free time to grind because he is living in his parents basement, unemployed, letting them pay for his car, his insurance, his food, his electricity, his ISP.

So someone is still "paying to win", just not him.
I don’t mind that people spend money on the game. I’m fine with that.

I don’t like that Turbine/SSG make bad things and then put the option to bypass those things into the store.

[fatherpirate]

most polls here are someone trying to prove 'support' for their idea/position/complaint etc.
sometimes with ... unexpected results to the OP's horror.

not all, just most.

[Zakharov]

I'm honestly surprised so many people have voted yes.

I expect that's because the framing of the poll appears so misleading that they are reading it more as "Do you think forum polls are at all useful?"

[Fenrisulven7]

93% odds to win is not a poll. the polls ended up at +3%, the margin ended up at +2%; the polls were within 1%

False. The 93% odds were based off the polling data.

"Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put [her] chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%, and pegged her as the heavy favorite to win a number of states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."


https://www.google.com/search?q=polling+data+hillary+would+win&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS882US882&oq=polling+data+hillary+would+win&aqs=chrome..69i57.13855j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[ChadB123]

the players that do participate in the ddo forums are probably more
prone to be meta chasers and power gamers.

lol.

[Fenrisulven7]

You've claimed that they don’t cater to whales but that’s not the same.

Your initial claim upthread was that SSG caters to whales; and I quote: "SSG is going to cater to the players who spend $30,000 in a year" - HungarianRhapsody

Now that your claim has been debunked, you've moved the goal posts to claim a different argument...




They don’t have to ask you what you want to buy. They just have to put stuff up for sale that you’ll buy. And when those things are what most people in the game don’t like and don’t want and even when those things actively make the game worse, it won’t matter as long as some people are putting THAT much money in the game. They don’t have to ask you what you want. They know that whatever it is, you’ll buy it as long as it’s more.

Speculation and mind-reading.

Hey, what number am I thinking of right now? .... that's right, you really have no idea.

You have no idea what I buy or why.

And guess what? It's none of your business.




I don’t mind that people spend money on the game. I’m fine with that. I don’t like that Turbine/SSG make bad things and then put the option to bypass those things into the store.

Well, the way you guys phrase it, the derogatory terms you use, and they way you disrespect players like me, makes it feel like you are blaming whales for whatever SSG does wrong.

People like me can spend more money on video games because we power-gamed and min-maxed Real Life. So we want to play the game, not work it. And we don't deserve to be scapegoated for that.

It's not our fault when SSG does something wrong. And the people who grind for "bad things" (your words) are just as responsible as those who pay for "bad things".

But you never complain about them....?

So it's like you guys are trying to stir up an angry mob for a witch hunt. Knock it off.



In my opinion, what's really going on here is that you guys think SSG is ignoring your advice and so you are looking to blame someone else, instead of entertaining the idea that your advice is just bad.

You think that because SSG is ignoring your advice, it must be because they are listening to someone else. So you seek to identify who that could be and shut them down.

See how easy it is to speculate and mindread other people's motives? Don't like it, do you?...



But be honest - if you and Chai ACTUALLY believed that SSG catered to people like me, you guys wouldn't be stalking me around the forums launching personal insults. You would be careful of me.

And I'll be even more honest - if SSG DID cater to people like me, as you claimed? You and Chai would be rolling up new toons in a DIFFERENT game. Months ago.

If I went to SSG and demanded they ban the two of you, they would laugh me out of the room, and likely ban me instead for my audacity. LOL.

The fact that you and Chai are still here proves that SSG does not cater to whales. And that is as it should be.

[Faltout]

False. The 93% odds were based off the polling data.

"Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put [her] chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%, and pegged her as the heavy favorite to win a number of states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."


https://www.google.com/search?q=polling+data+hillary+would+win&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS882US882&oq=polling+data+hillary+would+win&aqs=chrome..69i57.13855j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
That 93% is the chance that the polls are correct, which is different from the polls themselves. As explained above, if the poll says 70% A and 30% B, the chance that A wins is 99 or 100%, while if a poll says 52% A and 48% B, then the chance that A wins is about 60-70%. That chance derives from the margin of error a poll has. If that margin is 3%, then 70-3 is still a win, while 52-3 is a loss.

If 70+3, 70+2, 70+1, 70, 70-1, 70-2, 70-3 all result in win, then it's a 100% win. If 52+3, 52+2, 52+1, 52 and 52-1 result in win, then 5/7 = 71% times the poll outcome is the same as the actual outcome, making the poll only 71% accurate. You have to understand that 71% accuracy is waaaaay too low. When discussing error margins, you want to be in the 95%+ ballpark. It's like saying "I think that room is 5 meters long with 70% accuracy" which means that room may be 6.5 meters long or 3.5 meters long. I must have not even performed some basic measurements to be that inaccurate.

The real question is "How are those error margins calculated?" That's where how the polls are conducted comes into play and it's not really something countable. Some polls will only ask their friends and then say "+-3% accuracy! ;)", some polls will do a good job and say "+-10% accuracy :(". And then the public will believe and hear only the ones sounding more confident in their polling methods and whatever...

[Fenrisulven7]

42... in case you were wondering :cool:

[Fenrisulven7]

Back on point: here's an interesting article about of the worst polling fails. The "lessons learned" from the first example directly relate to the OP's question:

"When conducting survey market research, it’s likely impossible to reach your entire desired population. Don’t panic,
you can make sure you get a representative sample by using four different types of random sampling methods."

https://www.cvent.com/en/blog/events/biggest-political-polling-mistakes-history-can-teach-us-surveys

Forum polls do not use any of those four random sampling methods, therefor they can't accurately reflect the opinions of player base.



I agree with others who don't want the level cap raised, I'm just being honest about it - forum polls shouldn't be viewed as supporting our position.

[Saekee]

Does it matter if something is a ‘true reflection’ of the herd? I am an individual and my viewpoint counts intrinsically. So what if there were even a small percentage of players using stealth, we have value.

Polls were always a bad idea. No matter what, SSG will do what it wants and if people make an argument against their decision based on the herd’s desires, SSG will say that they have ‘true’ data about the herd and its feeding tendencies and that the forums here do not reflect it.

I do not like the removal of stacking enhancement speeds to stealth. Idk what the rest think. I will not play the new level cap increase. Idc what the rest think. They can moo away at the new cap.

[cpw_acc]

42... in case you were wondering :cool:

73.76% of statistics are made up on the spot.


On a more serious note, I would think that forum polls are not entirely accurate, as they obviously represent only the players who frequent the forums. And those are likely to be the subset of players who are longer-term players and more 'in to' DDO than, say, more casual players (who, inevitably, will have different goals and requirements and just as important to the health of the game).

I would hope the devs realise that although a subset of data can tell you some things, it can actually be far less accurate than the overall picture and even give completely the opposite result than it would if a more complete survey was done. (Such misunderstanding of data has led -or almost led - to serious life-threatening errors in the past, though obviously DDO is only a game!)

[Cordovan]

For years, polls were not allowed on the DDO forums. I recall when we brought them out we had lengthy discussions about them, and it seemed pretty clear at that time that polls were not a good judge of x vs y or "do players think X?". The value can be there regardless. If we had, say, 5000 unique accounts respond to a poll to do a thing, we'd obviously want to consider it. It can also be useful in the "a clear majority of forum posters answering the poll felt x".

[Captain_Wizbang]

Not even close.

The MAJORITY of players I know in-game don't post on the forums.

[Kinerd]

False. The 93% odds were based off the polling data.

who said they weren't? i said odds are not a poll, because they're not, and i said the polls were within 1% of the outcome, because they were

the largest sampling error you cite is 19%. when we're dealing with a margin around 60%-40%, as in Presidential elections, this can be catastrophic. when we're dealing with a margin around 80%-20%, as in the DDO level cap poll, it is literally impossible for this size error to influence the outcome. even if it is in the direction for those who want an increase (and there's no reason to believe it is rather than the other way), there would still be a healthy majority AGAINST the cap increase

and, as has been repeatedly brought up earlier, there would still be ZERO evidence for the claim that people DID want a cap increase

it's not a question of honesty, just arithmetic

[Arjen]

If we had, say, 5000 unique accounts respond to a poll to do a thing, we'd obviously want to consider it. It can also be useful in the "a clear majority of forum posters answering the poll felt x".

So the entire playerbase has to respond to a poll for it to be valid. Good to know.

[Arkat]

Not even close.

The MAJORITY of players I know in-game don't post on the forums.

Polls don't necessarily need to be answered by a majority of anyone for them to be valid.

The people who do answer polls, however, do need to be representative of the population, though, in order for a poll to be valid.

[Hogdog5]

I think most people would agree that the subset of players that regularly post on the forums are different than the average player. Most of the forum posters have been around since 2011 or earlier, and I'd wager that most are closer to "hardcore fans" rather than your "casual users." A typical case of the vocal minority.

[AlmGhandi]

Not even close.

The MAJORITY of players I know in-game don't post on the forums.

The MAJORITY of players I know in-game don't even read the forums.... it is a stretch to get them to look at the wiki.....

[Lokeal_The_Flame]

Do you think forum polls really give a true representation of the entirety of the the DDO player base?

Given that the majority of DDO players do not participate in the DDO Forums,
and that the players that do participate in the DDO forums are probably more
prone to be meta chasers and power gamers.

Where as the majority of the players are probably more casual players that are not effected as much
by changes in the meta or changes to the TR systems, and are less concerned about those impacts on the game.
( If they were concerned they would do like the rest of us and frequent the forums, live-streams, and social media postings to stay informed )

Also you can't overlook the impact of "sock" accounts on forum polls.

Given all these factors.
Do you really feel that forum polls represent a true picture of what the majority of DDO players feel is important?

I realize this poll in itself is ironic but it will at least be a capsule of what the forum participates feel towards the validity of forum polls.

No, though even then it's not that simple!

Some people with multiple accounts do troll votes, same with people in certain circles!

Whether or not someone attends the forums speaks miles about how much they care about the game, though it may also say something about how much trust they are willing to give the developers, from there money talks to fill in the blanks! I have quite a few big spender friends on DDO who do not attend the forums, but I know no one who isn't at least VIP/Uber Premium that neither attends the forums nor plays very often.... but hey maybe someone else does?

Whether or not someone attends a poll vote in the forums says a lot about whether or not they'd care if something influenced the developers, so if such a person doesn't care, then how can they matter?

[cpw_acc]

So the entire playerbase has to respond to a poll for it to be valid. Good to know.

I sense sarcasm. But....yes. For a poll to be valid - meaning as unbiased as possible - it either has to gather the views of EVERYONE or a large RANDOM subset.

I'm afraid that's how math, statistics and data works. And ye canna change the laws of Physics! (Or Math)

[nokowi]

I sense sarcasm. But....yes. For a poll to be valid - meaning as unbiased as possible - it either has to gather the views of EVERYONE or a large RANDOM subset.

I'm afraid that's how math, statistics and data works. And ye canna change the laws of Physics! (Or Math)

That's not how it works at all.

Information is valid when you take enough information to answer the question(s) you are interested in.

More respondents are often preferred, but not always necessary.

Something in the range of 3-5% of a population is often sufficient, but it depends on how well the respondents represent the total population.

Lastly, you have to use the information you have to make decisions, even when it is not perfect.

SSG has many avenues to get information, so a player poll will not cause much harm even if it misrepresents an issue.

Blaming forumites is silly when SSG can also look at direct user data, talk to people in-game, go to Discord, Reddit, Facebook, etc. That forum poll should be accepted as somewhat representative of the people on the forums. There is no need to dismiss the data.

A player poll often represents the best we have here on the forums, so arguing against the poll results makes even less sense than agreeing with them.

[Gniewomir]

If we had, say, 5000 unique accounts respond to a poll to do a thing, we'd obviously want to consider it. It can also be useful in the "a clear majority of forum posters answering the poll felt x".

Then, if it's possible from technical side, i would love to see in game poll for the first time in ddo history. Assuming of course you do want to consider what all players think about some important stuff happening in future.

[cpw_acc]

That's not how it works at all.

Information is valid when you take enough information to answer the question(s) you are interested in.

More respondents are often preferred, but not always necessary.

Something in the range of 3-5% of a population is often sufficient, but it depends on how well the respondents represent the total population.

Lastly, you have to use the information you have to make decisions, even when it is not perfect.

SSG has many avenues to get information, so a player poll will not cause much harm even if it misrepresents an issue.

Blaming forumites is silly when SSG can also look at direct user data, talk to people in-game, go to Discord, Reddit, Facebook, etc. That forum poll should be accepted as somewhat representative of the people on the forums. There is no need to dismiss the data.

A player poll often represents the best we have here on the forums, so arguing against the poll results makes even less sense than agreeing with them.

Thank you for accidentally agreeing with me.

I'm not saying poll results can't tell you something, but only what forumites think, which is, as you imply, not representative of the total population in the slightest. And inferring information from that alone could actually result in a complete opposite conclusion to what you would get if you could poll everyone.

And, as you say, SSG have access to direct user data, which is probably far more revealing.

[Kinerd]

I sense sarcasm. But....yes. For a poll to be valid - meaning as unbiased as possible - it either has to gather the views of EVERYONE or a large RANDOM subset.

I'm afraid that's how math, statistics and data works. And ye canna change the laws of Physics! (Or Math)

we have a poll of 170 respondents with 80% to 20% returns. there is no reason to believe sampling error will tilt the responses towards the 20%, and even if there was there is no reason to believe it's large enough to overturn the results

how data works is you have to show it

one side has, the other hasn't

[Fenrisulven7]

one side has, the other hasn't

Sides?

Yah, I think I see the real problem here.

Do we get jerseys? Dibs on #42 !

[cave_diver]

For years, polls were not allowed on the DDO forums. I recall when we brought them out we had lengthy discussions about them, and it seemed pretty clear at that time that polls were not a good judge of x vs y or "do players think X?". The value can be there regardless. If we had, say, 5000 unique accounts respond to a poll to do a thing, we'd obviously want to consider it. It can also be useful in the "a clear majority of forum posters answering the poll felt x".



If you actually had 5000 players regularly playing the game it would increase active server population by 5 old

[Inanout]

The funny part is if you polled general players, you would likely get same results on this topic.

[Clemeit]

Forum polls represent forum users. But since forum users aren't a random sample of DDO players, forum users don't represent DDO players. Therefore forum polls don't represent DDO players, they represent a non-random subset of DDO players. Forum polls are therefore prone to bias.

[Fenrisulven7]

Forum polls represent forum users. But since forum users aren't a random sample of DDO players, forum users don't represent DDO players. Therefore forum polls don't represent DDO players, they represent a non-random subset of DDO players. Forum polls are therefore prone to bias.

Yup

Fen: Come vote on this poll on the forums.

Player Base: Forums? What?

[nokowi]

Thank you for accidentally agreeing with me.

I'm not saying poll results can't tell you something, but only what forumites think, which is, as you imply, not representative of the total population in the slightest. And inferring information from that alone could actually result in a complete opposite conclusion to what you would get if you could poll everyone.

And, as you say, SSG have access to direct user data, which is probably far more revealing.

No accident at all.

We disagree when you say a poll is not representative in the slightest, but we agree on some other things. I said a poll always says something. I see pro SSG and anti SSG players here, power gamer and casual, grind vs no grind. All the important ideas are here, even if not in the exact quantity of the game itself.

SSG has much better data streams than polls, but polls are all us players have to view.

Most of us run with players like ourselves, so our individual play experiences are really really flawed data. Much more so than a forum poll that at least has all sides of an issue expressed.

The best data we have is steam data, DDO oracle, and forum polls.

If someone doesn't like the result, I expect them to argue against imperfect information instead of trying to make their own point, because questioning others and their motives requires zero supporting evidence. One can always conclude whatever they want, without data. That's the purpose of questioning polls, to ignore all data one does not like.

[Dark_Helmet]

Early on, they had a staff that would do random surveys such as email, Forum based and even at the conventions (I conducted some polls) along with invites to the private servers at random. Later it became a "dev favorites" and "resume" to join the cool kids.

The passionate and the trolls are the usual responses you get and not as many of the casual players (until they get mad and quit).

[LightBear]

It can also be useful in the "a clear majority of forum posters answering the poll felt x".

You really should take that with a pinch of salt, a rather large pinch of salt even... like the size of a cement truck.

[Fenrisulven7]

If someone doesn't like the result, I expect them to argue against imperfect information instead of trying to make their own point, because questioning others and their motives requires zero supporting evidence. One can always conclude whatever they want, without data.

You are making a false assumption, suggesting that when someone argues against a poll, it can only be because they don't like the outcome.

1) for that to be a logical statement, these same people would be arguing FOR polls when they DO like the outcome. They are not.

2) I am against raising the level cap, but I think the poll that supports my position is unscientific and not informative.




That's the purpose of questioning polls, to ignore all data one does not like.

Unscientific polls result in data corruption. Your logic says that since (2+2 = 5) is mostly a correct statement (ie "imperfect information") it is therefore useful information. It's not.

[nokowi]

You are making a false assumption, suggesting that when someone argues against a poll, it can only be because they don't like the outcome.

No I am not. I'm suggesting it is the primary reason people do it here.





Unscientific polls result in data corruption. Your logic says that since (2+2 = 5) is mostly a correct statement (ie "imperfect information") it is therefore useful information. It's not.

And yet SSG opens Lamannia, and takes unscientific feedback to make development decisions. SSG already uses what you call "corrupt" data, whether that is talking to people in person, reading forum posts, or responding to Lamannia feedback.

Evidently SSG still values non-representative data, and uses it for design decisions. A poll being non-representative should not stop them from looking at player responses, and using them to make decisions. They get to weigh the importance of the poll, based on the quality of choices and the quality of responses, but assigning a zero value to all "corrupt" sources leaves little mechanism for feedback, as all their player driven sources of data are corrupt.

We know by example (looking at SSG use "corrupt" feedback) you are wrong. Statements from individual players are high value data, which is why SSG seeks out data other than just what they can data mine. It's tough to tell why someone does something (even when you know what action they took), unless you ask. Which is why non-representative data is needed.

[Fenrisulven7]

You are making a false assumption, suggesting that when someone argues against a poll, it can only be because they don't like the outcome.


No I am not. I'm suggesting it is the primary reason people do it here.

And how do you know this?



SSG opens Lamannia, and takes unscientific feedback to make development decisions.

And how do you know what SSG's methodology is?


You are speculating, right? Speculations based on imperfect information?

[Kinerd]

Forum polls represent forum users. But since forum users aren't a random sample of DDO players, forum users don't represent DDO players. Therefore forum polls don't represent DDO players, they represent a non-random subset of DDO players. Forum polls are therefore prone to bias.

how much, specifically? fenris offered a link to the worst poll fail ever that had a 19% error due to sampling bias. if that number is correct (and i see no reason to believe anyone at this point would conspire for or against the 1936 Literary Digest Poll) surely you agree that a binary poll exceeding 75% would accurately report the majority, right? 75 - 19 > 50, after all

there is no perfect data, anywhere, ever. the only two coherent choices are to dismiss all data, everywhere, ever, or to measure specifically how imperfect given data is relative to its conclusion. a sample size of 1000's error bar of 3% is significant if a prediction is 51/49 (i.e. it is too small a sample size) but it is not if a prediction is 99/1 (i.e. now it isn't too small a sample size)

[Kinerd]

Sides?

Yah, I think I see the real problem here.

Do we get jerseys? Dibs on #42 !

when there are multiple positions in a discussion they are commonly referred to as "sides". in this case, one "side" of the discussion says that the player base does not support a level cap increase

while "side" is a relatively common use for a sports team in English football, it is much less common in American English than the above usage

[LightBear]

when there are multiple positions in a discussion they are commonly referred to as "sides". in this case, one "side" of the discussion says that the player base does not support a level cap increase

while "side" is a relatively common use for a sports team in English football, it is much less common in American English than the above usage

Not just sports but politics as well, esp when looking at the House of commons (Uk and/or Canada).

Anyway I thought the sides were if polls are representative or not, there is another thread about that other topic.

[nokowi]

You are making a false assumption, suggesting that when someone argues against a poll, it can only be because they don't like the outcome.

This is you creating a false narrative.

See below.

Please stop making false claims about others even your own responses show to be false.





And how do you know this?


Here you have acknowledged that I said the majority of people on DDO forums, and not all people, and definitely not all people in general.

I observe the number of people interested in the actual accuracy of a poll based on n respondents, and those interested in rejecting all data.

Perform your own count through several polls and tell me what you get.



And how do you know what SSG's methodology is?


I observe them taking non representative data on Lamannia. This shows that they value imperfect data.



You are speculating, right? Speculations based on imperfect information?

I form my conclusions based on imperfect information. If you can provide better information, please feel free to do so.

Lacking better information, and focusing on "imperfect" without any interest in quantifying how good data actually is to reject all information is the tool of disinformation. Convenient to support any conspiracy theory one might have, but not a way to deal with the real world based on reality.

SSG forms conclusions based on imperfect data. They do not reject imperfect data.

Neither do I.

Most importantly, I don't attack imperfect data because without it, SSG would have little to go on.

One that believes data is imperfect can always provide better data if they have it. If they can't, the imperfect data is the best we have for decision making.

[Oxarhamar]

Forum poll about forum polls

The answer is obvious

[CrisJolliff]

I have posted to these forums VERY sparingly. Enough time between posts to be assumed dead, in some cases. Not a valid measure, of course. It would be lovely if SSG would post real numbers, and maybe consolidate a few servers.

[Fenrisulven7]

This is you creating a false narrative.

No. Here is your quote I was responding to, which you have clipped out of your reply:


If someone doesn't like the result, I expect them to argue against imperfect information instead of trying to make their own point

To which I responded:


You are making a false assumption, suggesting that when someone argues against a poll, it can only be because they don't like the outcome.

Words mean things.




I observe the number of people interested in the actual accuracy of a poll based on n respondents, and those interested in rejecting all data.

Correlation does not imply causation.




I form my conclusions based on imperfect information.

Imperfect information = flawed data.




If you can provide better information, please feel free to do so.

I already have: I have said I support keeping the level cap at 30, but the polling data that supports my position is flawed

You have dismissed that information because it doesn't dovetail with your narrative (and ironically, you are dismissing data because you don't like the result).




focusing on "imperfect" without any interest in quantifying how good data actually is to reject all information is the tool of disinformation. Convenient to support any conspiracy theory

Disinformation tools? Conspiracy theories?




but not a way to deal with the real world based on reality.

No, in the real world, accepting "imperfect data" has been responsible for friendly forces getting bombed, levees collapsing, space shuttles exploding, the mortgage crisis of 2007.

For a poll to even be taken seriously, it must follow the Scientific Method. https://www.decodedscience.org/the-method-to-the-madness-how-the-scientific-method-relates-to-polling/: "Unscientific polls, such as straw polls, internet polls and television polls are frequently presented in the media, since they can be created quickly and many who view them do not understand that they are less accurate than scientific polls."

ALSO https://www.cvent.com/en/blog/events/biggest-political-polling-mistakes-history-can-teach-us-surveys: "When conducting survey market research, it’s likely impossible to reach your entire desired population. ...you can make sure you get a representative sample by using four different types of random sampling methods... Simple Random Sampling, Systemic Sampling, Clustered Sampling and Stratified Sampling..."

Do DDO forum polls use ANY of those four random sampling methods?




SSG forms conclusions based on imperfect data. They do not reject imperfect data.

You are not a spokesman for SSG, so you can't know what they do or why. You are speculating.

For all you know, they could be pretending to take forum polls seriously just to appease the forumites.




Most importantly, I don't attack imperfect data because without it, SSG would have little to go on. One that believes data is imperfect can always provide better data if they have it. If they can't, the imperfect data is the best we have for decision making.

Last election, polling experts said that based on their polling data, one candidate had a 93% chance to win the election (ie. imperfect data, albeit with 92% certainty). That candidate lost 306-232.



I agree with you that polls can be useful, especially when you can't get all the facts, but not when the poll is flawed.

A good example is political polling: if it doesn't poll over 1,000 Likely Voters and have a margin of error of 3% or less, we throw it out. Regardless of whether we like the result.

[Clemeit]

surely you agree that a binary poll exceeding 75% would accurately report the majority, right?

No, I don't agree because it's not necessarily true. If the subjects participating in a poll are both 1) a random sample of the population, and 2) a sufficiently large sample size, then yes, you could make that conclusion. But since the forums are definitely not a random sample of DDO's population, forum polls do not necessarily represent the majority.

It's like saying "in a recent poll, 90% of participants voted in favor of tax breaks for the wealthy." Well, if the only people who were polled were wealthy, you can't simply extrapolate that poll data to the entire population and conclude that "90% of all citizens are in favor of tax breaks for the wealthy."

[nokowi]

No, in the real world, accepting "imperfect data" has been responsible for friendly forces getting bombed, levees collapsing, space shuttles exploding, the mortgage crisis of 2007.

We would have no space shuttle without using imperfect data. We would have no military, because paralyzed with fear of making a wrong decision, no decision is made. No stealth program, no autonomous vehicles, etc. We have never had perfect data - and yet we (people that understand how to operate in a world without perfect data) have created very powerful things using imperfect data. Part of being successful is accepting failures - those that wait for perfection accomplish nothing, because it never happens.


Remember Pearl Harbor? That is what happens when someone ignores data because they are not comfortable with it.

People that understand decision making accept the risk of being wrong while using imperfect information, and accept failures as part of the design process.




For a poll to even be taken seriously, it must follow the Scientific Method. https://www.decodedscience.org/the-method-to-the-madness-how-the-scientific-method-relates-to-polling/: "Unscientific polls, such as straw polls, internet polls and television polls are frequently presented in the media, since they can be created quickly and many who view them do not understand that they are less accurate than scientific polls."

People who understand polls understand they are less accurate. Notice it did not say completely meaningless, but less accurate --> which supports what I have been saying all along, and not what you have been saying.



ALSO https://www.cvent.com/en/blog/events/biggest-political-polling-mistakes-history-can-teach-us-surveys: "When conducting survey market research, it’s likely impossible to reach your entire desired population. ...you can make sure you get a representative sample by using four different types of random sampling methods... Simple Random Sampling, Systemic Sampling, Clustered Sampling and Stratified Sampling..."

Do DDO forum polls use ANY of those four random sampling methods?

No information SSG has follows the scientific method. You keep going off on polls for being unscientific without using logic to realize they would have zero information following your suggestions.




You are not a spokesman for SSG, so you can't know what they do or why. You are speculating.

For all you know, they could be pretending to take forum polls seriously just to appease the forumites.

Apply this same standard to yourself, and everyone here, and stop posting if you believe nothing anyone says can be listened to. If you keep posting, we will know this statement was rubbish and should be ignored for what it is.




Last election, polling experts said that based on their polling data, one candidate had a 93% chance to win the election (ie. imperfect data, albeit with 92% certainty). That candidate lost 306-232.

93% chance means wrong 7% of the time. Roll a d100 and tell me 1-7 can't come up.

It's possible they got the odds wrong, but they did predict the possibility of exactly what happened.

One who understands probability understands someone can win the lottery with 0.00001% chance of winning, and that this event happening is not a fluke.

The proof you think you have here is not the proof you think you have here.

You would know this if you understood probability.

[Jaxtan]

I voted other. Like some, this poll doesn't, but others do.

[Glenalth]

I voted and I haven't played in years, so here's +1 to misrepresenting the player base in a poll.

[SuperNiCd]

I voted and I haven't played in years, so here's +1 to misrepresenting the player base in a poll.

Zoinks! This poll is RUINED! :)

[glmfw1]

Zoinks! This poll is RUINED! :)
Oh no!!!

[glmfw1]

No poll gives a "true" representation of ALL the relevant group - all they ever do is provide a rough representation.
Even in elections, where more people vote than not, the results are not a True Representation of what the people want (e.g. in the recent UK General Election, some people voted for one party over another to prevent a 3rd for getting in, even though the second was their actual preference).
For accurate polling you need to have accurately worded questions to address the correct issue, with no ambiguity in the answers AND you need to have a representative population.

In the case of DDO, the official forums are a good place to get a cross section of people who care about the game and also newer players with questions. These forums are therefore going to give a better representation of what matters to the playerbase than a poll set up elsewhere (short of a mandatory poll that appears once on login to the game from an account, and remains active for a week at least).
If a poll on the forums displays visible voter lists, some of the obvious troll accounts can be eliminated from the running, based on knowledge of names, allowing determination of more accurate statistics than the overall poll result.
A problem with forum polls is that you cannot guarantee how many people will answer, but a popular poll will remain at the top of the list longer, meaning people who ignored it earlier in its run can see it is being voted/commented on, so may add their votes too. This means that the longer a poll is left up, the more accurate/representative the results are.

One common issue with forum polls is that you can't have linked polls.
e.g in one recent poll the question was about raising the level cap
Were I setting up this poll, I would have 3 options in the main poll:

Yes/No/Not Bothered

Then, I would have 2 sub polls linked on the same post:

If the level cap were increased (Yes option in previous poll), what would you like the nature of the increase to be?
If the level cap were not increased (No option in previous poll), what options would you like to be introduced to prolong endgame play?

Each option would cover relevant possibilities, such new Legendary advancement (with/without Legendary Reincarnation), unlimited level progression, ongoing sentience-style options at cap for all item types, items that can be levelled with earned XP etc.
By having sub-polls linked in, you can get results from the same group of people easily so the results of the polls not only show the popularity of a proposed course of action, but why it's that popular/unpopular and how it could be implemented.
Using the example above, if raising the level cap was very unpopular, but the "unlimited level progression" was the overwhelmingly popular option for implementation, the Devs (and players) could see that the latter would only happen IF the unpopular course of action were taken. If the polls were separate forum polls, different polls could be answered by different people, meaning one set of answers could not be accurately linked to the other(s) AND an unpopular course of action could be chosen (most popular answer in sub-poll) even if the playerbase wanted something else.

Until the polling setup is fixed to allow nested sub polls and the poll creation interface gives clear guidelines for creating polls, the polls on the forum will only be as accurateas the person creating the poll lets them be and as representative as the people choosing to answer are.

[Kinerd]

No, I don't agree because it's not necessarily true. If the subjects participating in a poll are both 1) a random sample of the population, and 2) a sufficiently large sample size, then yes, you could make that conclusion. But since the forums are definitely not a random sample of DDO's population, forum polls do not necessarily represent the majority.

It's like saying "in a recent poll, 90% of participants voted in favor of tax breaks for the wealthy." Well, if the only people who were polled were wealthy, you can't simply extrapolate that poll data to the entire population and conclude that "90% of all citizens are in favor of tax breaks for the wealthy."

if you will, let's examine the phrases "necessarily true" and "sufficiently large". we agree that a sample must be sufficiently large, because random chance can result in a fair coin coming up 4 heads out of 4 flips... but it is only less likely to come up 4000 heads out of 4000 flips, not necessarily impossible. there is no empirical result whatsoever that offers necessary truth; we can never reach 100% confidence

which brings us back to the first clause of the sentence you quoted - "if [19% error due to sampling bias] is correct". we can of course construct toy problems where sampling bias is much higher, but since this is not a level cap opposition forum there is no facial reason to believe our scenario looks more like them than the cited real world examples (which is to say quantifications) of severe sampling bias

we have a margin (~80%)
we have its error due to random noise (~6%)
we have an upper bound of its error due to sampling (~19%)

add in quadrature and we get a range of 60% to 100% opposed to the level cap at 95% confidence. i would not call that perfect data! but if my question is merely "is the true value above 50%", i am very confident the answer is yes. and i would of course be open to other data! but merely reiterating the size of the error bars on the existing data is irrelevant, since we already demonstrated that in this case it does not impact our conclusion

[Kinerd]

Last election, polling experts said that based on their polling data, one candidate had a 93% chance to win the election (ie. imperfect data, albeit with 92% certainty). That candidate lost 306-232.



I agree with you that polls can be useful, especially when you can't get all the facts, but not when the poll is flawed.

A good example is political polling: if it doesn't poll over 1,000 Likely Voters and have a margin of error of 3% or less, we throw it out. Regardless of whether we like the result.

three of the five most recent polls on 538's Democratic Primary Forecast have sample sizes less than 1,000. one has less than 500

there is no bright line sample size because error bars never go away. therefore, the only sensible models merely weight data by uncertainty, not discard it entirely

if polls were fundamentally flawed, that would call into question whether the models should use different inputs entirely. but as we have previously established, they were not and are not: they accurately (and with well defined bands of precision) measure how a population will vote.

if a model is fundamentally flawed, that in no way calls into question whether the inputs its based on are flawed, in the same way that no one will take you very seriously if you call into question JRR Tolkein after only seeing the Lord of the Rings movies based on his books

[Fenrisulven7]

three of the five most recent polls on 538's Democratic Primary Forecast have -

Shrug.

I've been a subject matter expert on polling data for 40 years, over 13 local and 4 national races. You aren't going to change my mind.

So at this point we are just talking past each other. I did enjoy the argument thought, take care.

[Clemeit]

if you will, let's examine the phrases "necessarily true" and "sufficiently large". we agree that a sample must be sufficiently large, because random chance can result in a fair coin coming up 4 heads out of 4 flips... but it is only less likely to come up 4000 heads out of 4000 flips, not necessarily impossible. there is no empirical result whatsoever that offers necessary truth; we can never reach 100% confidence

which brings us back to the first clause of the sentence you quoted - "if [19% error due to sampling bias] is correct". we can of course construct toy problems where sampling bias is much higher, but since this is not a level cap opposition forum there is no facial reason to believe our scenario looks more like them than the cited real world examples (which is to say quantifications) of severe sampling bias

we have a margin (~80%)
we have its error due to random noise (~6%)
we have an upper bound of its error due to sampling (~19%)

add in quadrature and we get a range of 60% to 100% opposed to the level cap at 95% confidence. i would not call that perfect data! but if my question is merely "is the true value above 50%", i am very confident the answer is yes. and i would of course be open to other data! but merely reiterating the size of the error bars on the existing data is irrelevant, since we already demonstrated that in this case it does not impact our conclusion

You entirely glossed over the point I was attempting to convey in my previous post. Random sample. This thread asked "Do you think forum polls really give a true representation of ALL DDO Players?" My answer is no, and my rationale is this: forum users are not a random sample of DDO players, therefore forum polls (however conclusive or one-sided) don't represent all DDO players. Do I believe that "the majority of forum users are against a level cap increase?" Yes. Yes I do; the results from that poll are conclusive enough, and I'm not arguing with you. But that's not relevant to the discussion on this specific thread, because this thread asked if forum polls give a true representation of all DDO players.