And the Answer is - 42

[GoldyGopher]

So you know what the answer is ... I have Turned to Deep Thought as Loonquawl and Phouchg are stunned and incapable of stringing together complete sentences.

So what the heck is the question?

How many Elf Rogues does it take to relight a torch?
How may different ways can you solve the circular puzzle in Shroud?

Being a little, okay a lot bored, with DDO I started recording my Daily Dice rolls, soon I was rolling on all three of my accounts on all the servers or as many as I could hit every day.

As of today I have recorded 1511 rolls over the past several months...

The most Common Number as a result - 42 (1)
The Average of all 1511 rolls - almost exactly 42 (41.98676)


What else did I learn
Rolls Percent (2)
1-20 24.2%
21-40 21.1%
41-60 27.3%
61-80 9.1%
81-90 9.1%
91-96 6.1%
97-99 3.1%
100 0% (3)

Rolls tend to link together. It was common to roll multiple results clustered in the same band, for example one days rolls resulted in 3, 4, 7, 27, 34, 41 another day 17, 27, 35, 39, 60, 61. This phenomenon of clustering occurred just under 60% of the days I rolled. It almost makes me wish I spent more time tracking exactly when I rolled.


(1) With 1511 rolls each number should theoretically appear 15 times plus or minus 3 for a standard deviation. The number 42 appeared a staggering 46 times in my test. Well over twice (18*2) what would be consider a norm. I did not record a single roll of 100 during the test. The other number that appears out side of what I was expecting -- 56 (which is oh so close to 54 which would have got me laughing hysterically)

(2) There is rounding involved at the 5th decimal place.

(3) During the course of 1511 daily rolls on the silver dice I did not roll a single 100 or jackpot.

[Powskier]

did you notice a difference in rolling ,with different click styles? I seem to get more favorable rolls when I let the dice screen stay up for a while; a quick click usually begets a very low roll (under 20)while I roll in the 80s and 90s quite often. This technique also works on slot machines a bit...the longer you make the machine wait,the more likely it will roll a decent set of reels....it is more of a zen ,feeling type thing. funny how 42 does come up so much,it is notable without much tracking,the cure elixers always take up an xtra hotbar i dont really have .

[PermaBanned]

During the course of 1511 daily rolls on the silver dice I did not roll a single 100 or jackpot.
The Daily Dice are actually rolled by kobolds and, well... you know how they feel about you... ;)

[Garix]

The problem with RNG's.....

http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2001-10-25/

[Kawai]

...With 1511 rolls each number should theoretically appear 15 times plus or minus 3 for a standard deviation..

thank you for the in depth roll testing.
ive done same a few times, though i did not keep track like u did.

nice. (&+1)

but it proves one sorry point.

We make a big deal (self included) about cheating/duplication running rampant.
but its equally hard to accept how our own Developers cheat us this way.

[Saekee]

If you break down the 4 and 2 in 42, add them to make 6, you will get one of the three numbers of the Antichrist. Check your numbers and you will find the other two 6s appearing.

[Kawai]

If you break down the 4 and 2 in 42, add them to make 6, you will get one of the three numbers of the Antichrist. Check your numbers and you will find the other two 6s appearing.

:|

~head~desk~

[cdbd3rd]

.....it is more of a zen ,feeling type thing....

Similarly, it always seems like if I roll the freebie Gold and Silver rolls quickly back-to-back, they hit the same prize tier. (Usually tiny XP & plat)


As is fitting for my hidden loot luck score ... :rolleyes:

[PermaBanned]

We make a big deal (self included) about cheating/duplication running rampant.
but its equally hard to accept how our own Developers cheat us this way.Really? Not for me...

When I go to a casino, I expect things to be stacked against me - by the house; but if I suspect the guy next to me at the table is cheating I wanna shank 'em ;)

Same thing here: I expect things {like the Daily Dice} to be weighted in Turbines favor, but Dupers flooding the market and lowering prices on things I want to sell... Yeah, I wanna shank them too.

[HAL]

thank you for the in depth roll testing.
ive done same a few times, though i did not keep track like u did.

nice. (&+1)

but it proves one sorry point.

We make a big deal (self included) about cheating/duplication running rampant.
but its equally hard to accept how our own Developers cheat us this way.

Just curious: how are the Developers "cheating" us? Don't get me wrong - I hate RNG with a passion. But other methods of determining loot generation are more expensive (more coding, larger databases, etc). So its common across all MMOs.

[Kawai]

Just curious: how are the Developers "cheating" us? Don't get me wrong - I hate RNG with a passion. But other methods of determining loot generation are more expensive (more coding, larger databases, etc). So its common across all MMOs.

rolls should be rolls.
period.
actual randomness.
not the odds based results that they've made them.

should b an even chance @rolling 100 as there is of a 1.
ESPECIALLY when gold rolls outside of the freebie per week is charged@ w/ real money involved.

remember, this also pertains, i m sure, to in-game rolls during combat.
if i had a nickel for every 1 that i roll on a slayer arrow? >:|
yea.
rigged.
some accept de standard "deal widdit"
i dont, & never will.

ditto with dupers & shenanigans.

[Singular]

If you break down the 4 and 2 in 42, add them to make 6, you will get one of the three numbers of the Antichrist. Check your numbers and you will find the other two 6s appearing.

It is Devils & Demons after all!

[Tscheuss]

Most programmers know that computer generated randomness is just a pattern that simulates randomness. It is a common practice to attempt to increase entropy by involving other variables such as system timer and user response times for given events. For example, a random number generator may be coded to take the number of milliseconds between the opening of a dialog and the call for a roll as the seed for the random function.

Powskier has put forth an interesting premise. Perhaps the time of day and/or the time delay from opening the dialog to clicking on Roll have an effect on the result. :)

[Rykka]

Really? Not for me...

When I go to a casino, I expect things to be stacked against me - by the house; but if I suspect the guy next to me at the table is cheating I wanna shank 'em ;)

Same thing here: I expect things {like the Daily Dice} to be weighted in Turbines favor, but Dupers flooding the market and lowering prices on things I want to sell... Yeah, I wanna shank them too.

Thing is, a (regulated) casino's odds are accurate no matter how bad the odds of winning something are. A d100 roll would be a d100 roll. DDO just lies and pretends that it's rolling a d100. I believe it's a pseudorandom number list designed to **** off paying players.

[Garix]

Thing is, a (regulated) casino's odds are accurate no matter how bad the odds of winning something are. A d100 roll would be a d100 roll. DDO just lies and pretends that it's rolling a d100. I believe it's a pseudorandom number list designed to **** off paying players.

You're comparing apples to Elephants.

A casino uses a physical device. In the online versions they use a RNG program that will work pretty much the same way as DDO's.

Until the sample size is in the 100's of thousands (minimum) any user generated data, while well meaning, is more or less useless.

People just don't get randomness very well.

Consider the following coin tosses (where Heads=1 and Tails=0):

101010101010

111111111111

110110110001

000000000001

Question.

Which of the patterns is the most random?

Answer.

No difference in any of the patterns.

That's not to say there haven't been issues with computer generated RNG's in the past. But until you can provide a worthwhile sample set, I will continue to assume my luck just stinks :)

[Saekee]

It is Devils & Demons after all!

I was thinking that the third group would be Kobolds!

[FrancisP.Fancypants]

People just don't get randomness very well.


Other people just don't get the limitation of RNGs, and perhaps may be unaware of particular histories (http://asheron.wikia.com/wiki/Wi_Flag) that cast doubt on "random luck".

[Ravenwolf1]

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