The low knock roll

[Syllph]

I've posted this once before probably a year ago:

Knock/lock-picking. To roll above an 11 seems more tedious than any single other roll. I've played through 12 lives now on this toon so I've seen rolls from Turn Undead, Attack, Confirms, Saves, Spell Pen, Intimidate etc.

Knock and lock-picking, however, seem bugged to me. When I posted this last year the responses were: you just had a string of bad rolls. This life I've really paid attention. Doing oob 4 times the door needed a 15 to knock. I burned through 1000 spell points the first run, 800 the second, 900 the third. I stopped counting and started looking at how much SP it was using. This just doesn't seem natural.

Yes there are times I roll a 20 right off. But specifically with door opening skills the dice seem to be against me.

TL;DR: /rant. lock-picking bugged? can't roll to save my life.

[Slink]

I agree 100%.

This last life has been filled with an unusual string of low rolls on my umd fighter.
I think I have seen more *umd check 37+2* than i care to see for a very long time.

During leveling it was a ridiculous thing to see rolling 2s and 3s consistantly for 6 rolls in a row and maybe even a 1 in there for good measure.

I've tried changing my dice and nothing helps!
Dice are the new nerf.

[Sarisa]

I know it's just observer bias, but I always feel my Knock, Open Lock, and UMD rolls are rigged.

[Ugumagre]

Not to speak about crafting.
I am not really the guy for conspiracies, but really, failing 8 times in a row a 65%...well, it makes you suspicious at the least. A 1/6000 chance, if I am not wrong. It surely happens, and it has to happen sometime, somewhere. It is just that it feels like it is happening too often.

[Kinerd]

If you go into this thread (http://forums.ddo.com/showthread.php?t=277484), towards the end k1ngp1n posts a set of 1000 UMD trials. The results are statistically indistinguishable from a perfect (unbiased) d20. With that in mind, I think the question you (general) have to ask yourself is what explanation is most likely:

1. The game uses a different RNG for Open Lock than it does for UMD.
2. The game uses a different RNG for you than it does for k1ngp1n.
3. Humans are not good at remembering 100s of numbers, and are very not good at doing statistical analysis on them in their heads.

[oganos]

If you go into this thread (http://forums.ddo.com/showthread.php?t=277484), towards the end k1ngp1n posts a set of 1000 UMD trials. The results are statistically indistinguishable from a perfect (unbiased) d20. With that in mind, I think the question you (general) have to ask yourself is what explanation is most likely:

1. The game uses a different RNG for Open Lock than it does for UMD.
2. The game uses a different RNG for you than it does for k1ngp1n.
3. Humans are not good at remembering 100s of numbers, and are very not good at doing statistical analysis on them in their heads.

Ooh, Ooh, I choose 3!

[Spoonwelder]

It does seem odd though that when I forget to put my gloves of disabling on I will immediately roll a 1....have them on and rolls are clean.

As the man says...what can go wrong will go wrong.

Or

Trying is the first step on the path to failure.

Both are applicable.

[Callavan]

I warned you guys the monsters found a way to sandbag the d20. But nobody wants to hear it until it's too late and they've already taken Stormreach. It's time to fight back (http://forums.ddo.com/showthread.php?t=358084) against these oppresive magicks!

[cforce]

Knock and lock-picking, however, seem bugged to me. When I posted this last year the responses were: you just had a string of bad rolls. This life I've really paid attention. Doing oob 4 times the door needed a 15 to knock. I burned through 1000 spell points the first run, 800 the second, 900 the third. I stopped counting and started looking at how much SP it was using. This just doesn't seem natural.



Wait, when you say you burned through 1000SP, are you claiming you cast knock 1000/15 = around 65 times before you got a single roll higher than 15? And then subsequently 55ish and 60ish times? Casting Knock 180 times and only getting three rolls of 15 or higher does start to be statistically significant, yes. If someone else can reproduce, there just might be a bug there.

Exact scenario? What's your exact class breakdown, race, and level when attempting? What difficulty were you on? Might be worth someone else going in and trying to reproduce your (lack of) success.

[Niv-mizzet]

I always feel that knock rolls, and displace/incorp rolls are severely weighted.

When I can call out before attacking "I'm about to miss this ghost like 6 times in a row (1/64, or less than 2% chance) before I connect," and my friend watches it happen, I'm pretty **** sure something's wrong. And of course I'm strictly counting the attacks that get an incorp message, not the ones that miss because the ghost is doing ghosty things and just making me miss anyway.

Similarly, when I do weapon shipment elite solo, I throw a displace on when the archers come out, and I'm like "hey watch this, they're supposed to have a 50% chance to hit me." *8 displaces, 1 hit, 5 displaces, 1 hit, 12 displaces, 1 hit....etc*

At least the roll seems weighted to be low for them too, but man i should NOT be able to call out such improbable results and be consistently correct.

[Psiandron]

I've been through some bad runs with things like this and while your numbers seem impressive at first glance, I'd need to see a greater amount of testing before I fully believe that there is a problem. Keep in mind that when you're trying to roll 15+ you have a 70% chance of failure and that over the short term, and a couple hundred chances is short term when it comes to probability, there are going to be some impressive streaks.

I don't know anything about the RNG Turbine uses, or even if it's an in-house product or brought in from outside, but the numbers I've seen people post it seems pretty good.

[Kadran]

I was trying to knock the locked door in threnal south a couple days ago on my level 10 wizard. I had ship buffs, a +5 int cannith crafted item, and I still used just about all of my mana (minus what I used to buff) trying to get these doors open. I had to drink TWO greater pots (not major) before I finally got the **** thing open. That is what I like to call skumbaggery on the dice.

[Syllph]

Wait, when you say you burned through 1000SP, are you claiming you cast knock 1000/15 = around 65 times before you got a single roll higher than 15? And then subsequently 55ish and 60ish times? Casting Knock 180 times and only getting three rolls of 15 or higher does start to be statistically significant, yes. If someone else can reproduce, there just might be a bug there.

Exact scenario? What's your exact class breakdown, race, and level when attempting? What difficulty were you on? Might be worth someone else going in and trying to reproduce your (lack of) success.

Class wiz/rog. 0 skill points in Open Lock for testing purposes (Should not affect Knock but if you want to be exact) spell focus Necro/greater, again only for testing purposes. (Tested with GH and Transmutation item and even Stormreaver napkin. I actually thought the DC would be affected by having heighten and spell foci but it seemed it was not. GH naturally did nothing)

Tried again on a different door: The locked door in Vol for the Maruts. I didn't think I'd hit the high DC on Elite but I was stubborn enough to try for a natural 20. Similar results. Many, many sub 10 rolls very few highs.

The poster who said we cannot remember 100s of numbers, I agree with you. This is most likely my frustration at failing knock after knock when that kind of is my roll in some quests.

[Sarisa]

I know that it's just bias, but you do remember the horrible streaks over anything else.

A few days ago on my TR, at level 10 (9 CLR/1 MNK), I had an 85% chance of making the caster level check on a Heal scroll. In one quest, I used 11 scrolls, 6 of them were rolls 3 or below (1 was a '1', 3 were '2', 2 were '3'). The next quest I used 5 scrolls, and 2 of them were failure rolls.

[BigSlugger]

Class wiz/rog. 0 skill points in Open Lock for testing purposes (Should not affect Knock but if you want to be exact) spell focus Necro/greater, again only for testing purposes. (Tested with GH and Transmutation item and even Stormreaver napkin. I actually thought the DC wuld be affted by having heighten and spell foci but it seemed it was not. GH naturally did nothing)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but your spell save DC has nothing to do with your knock success. It is a caster level check. So having an Intelligence of 50 and Spell Focus feats won't give you any better chance than having an Intelligence of 12.

[Syllph]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but your spell save DC has nothing to do with your knock success. It is a caster level check. So having an Intelligence of 50 and Spell Focus feats won't give you any better chance than having an Intelligence of 12.

You quoted me saying just that. It was a test it didn't work.

[Feralthyrtiaq]

Going through my current life on Mokune (2Ftr/2Monk/14Ceric and holding 18 with 3k XP to cap) with Wizard dilletante and 13 INT.

This morning in IQ Sunken Parish I used a lvl 10 Knock Wand on the Locked Chest behind the secret door that appears in the water filled (lol) spiked pit once the puzzle is solved.

Normal Mode Dungeon, Die Roll = "1" +10 for Wand Level? = Success on Modified Die Roll of "11"

Have yet to have a failure with this lvl 10 knock wand in lvl 16 and up content.

Now...trying to cast Knock with my Wiz....I feel your pain...

UMD lag (ESPECIALLY BAD WHEN USING THE BUNNY HAT FROM STORE) not as noticeable w/o the dumb (jmo)looking hat.

[Nospheratus]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but your spell save DC has nothing to do with your knock success. It is a caster level check. So having an Intelligence of 50 and Spell Focus feats won't give you any better chance than having an Intelligence of 12.

It's actually a caster level + INT (for wizards) modifier.

True that spell focus won't matter in that case, but higher INT does.

[elraido]

On my main paladin saves I have gotten my saves to around this:
Fort 70+
Will 50+
Reflex 50+

You seriously have no idea how many ones I roll to fail on those saves.

[Kaytis]

I throw a displace on when the archers come out, and I'm like "hey watch this, they're supposed to have a 50% chance to hit me." *8 displaces, 1 hit, 5 displaces, 1 hit, 12 displaces, 1 hit....etc*

Fight club! (yea I have noticed this too -it seems to me that displace and blur are proccing way way higher than they should, but why bring it up? :-)).

[Sarisa]

Fight club! (yea I have noticed this too -it seems to me that displace and blur are proccing way way higher than they should, but why bring it up? :-)).

For me, it's more often:

Mob attacks me: hit, hit, displace, hit, hit, hit, hit, displace, hit, hit, hit
Me attacking mob: displace, displace, displace, hit, displace, displace, displace, displace, hit

Feel free to substitute incorporeal as well, for those who don't yet have a good Ghost Touch weapon.

[Syllph]

For me, it's more often:

Mob attacks me: hit, hit, displace, hit, hit, hit, hit, displace, hit, hit, hit
Me attacking mob: displace, displace, displace, hit, displace, displace, displace, displace, hit

Feel free to substitute incorporeal as well, for those who don't yet have a good Ghost Touch weapon.

My least favorite is incorporeal, incorporeal, incorporeal, phase out completely, incorporeal, phase out. Grrr.

[Cyr]

If you go into this thread (http://forums.ddo.com/showthread.php?t=277484), towards the end k1ngp1n posts a set of 1000 UMD trials. The results are statistically indistinguishable from a perfect (unbiased) d20. With that in mind, I think the question you (general) have to ask yourself is what explanation is most likely:

1. The game uses a different RNG for Open Lock than it does for UMD.
2. The game uses a different RNG for you than it does for k1ngp1n.
3. Humans are not good at remembering 100s of numbers, and are very not good at doing statistical analysis on them in their heads.

4. The game modifies the rolls based upon circumstances such as only fail on a one rolls or damage on your toon or a mob being active in the zone...another one which many have noted before is rolling after making a concentration check. Yeah, seems complicated, but I have seens stranger things in ddo.
5. UMD and possibly other rolls are effected, incorrectly most likely, by dungeon scaling even when it should not apply. Seems crazy, but again I have seen stranger things.
6. The game uses different RNG for different characters (not just accounts) or this 'luck' number is periodically re-assigned.
7. The RNG for 'rigged' dice is coded to hide this aspect by trending towards normal if you sit around doing something repeatitive over and over again for many samples which would never happen in normal gaming.

[ButtersStotch]

For me, it's more often:

Mob attacks me: hit, hit, displace, hit, hit, hit, hit, displace, hit, hit, hit
Me attacking mob: displace, displace, displace, hit, displace, displace, displace, displace, hit

Feel free to substitute incorporeal as well, for those who don't yet have a good Ghost Touch weapon.

I got Displaced messages yesterday doing walkups in Gianthold. After swapping out gear to have DM's Vision.

[Syllph]

I got Displaced messages yesterday doing walkups in Gianthold. After swapping out gear to have DM's Vision.

Did you bug report it?