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View Full Version : New Dice Descriptions not Accurate



Valezra
09-07-2010, 11:15 AM
I'm sure someone has already posted this and I am sorry if I am repeating the general intent but I couldn't find a thread about it.

The new hit dice descriptions are not accurate at all. I understand the intent was to simplify damage descriptions for newer players but I think Turbine has confused them even more.

Example:

A spell that does 1d6 / Level (max 20d6) means a level 20 will roll 20d6 for damage.

The description now reads "does 20 to 120 damage" which is technically correct but is statistically wrong. Saying it does 20 to 120 damage correctly communicates that the average damage is (20+120)/2 which equals 70; but does not represent the statistical probability of being any one damage value.

Stating it does 20 to 120 damage implies there is a .99% (or about ~1%) chance for any given damage number. So if a caster were to cast 100,000 of these spells he could reasonably expect to see about ~999 of them doing 120 damage. However that is statistically unlikely given the 20d6 mechanic. In fact, in over 1,000 iterations I have yet to see one cast do less than 45 damage or more than 95 damage.

The description "20 to 120" is hugely different from the reality of say 45 to 95 damage.

Below is a graph representing 100 casts of a 20d6 spell. (Each iteration looks similar)

http://i695.photobucket.com/albums/vv320/Valezra/20d6-2.jpg

Since the description is inaccurate I would recommend going back to the normal hit-die descriptions and simply putting a note stating something like: "Example: 1d6 = any number between 1 and 6. 2d6 is any number between 1 and 6 plus another number between 1 and 6." And leave it to the players to educate themselves.

Otherwise, I hope this helped clear up some possible confusion for newer players.

PS - I understand that the actual hit-die mechanic appears to be weighted in the player's favor (ie - 2d6 actually equals 2d3 + 3) but that is a discussion for another time.

Val

TigrisMorte
09-08-2010, 06:42 PM
I applaud you.
There have been many who pointed out that they don't like the change but very few that pointed out the change is simply wrong.
Not because of tradition, nor for aesthetics.

It is mathematically wrong.

The fact that 2 to 12 does not equal 2D6 is lost on the majority of folks.

Visty
09-08-2010, 06:44 PM
and considering that ddo is using loaded dices which means each d6 is actually 1d3+3, then 20d6 are 80 - 120 actually

Lorien_the_First_One
09-08-2010, 06:48 PM
and considering that ddo is using loaded dices which means each d6 is actually 1d3+3, then 20d6 are 80 - 120 actually

It would be nice if they are honest about that part too. They have said the dice are loaded, but I wish they would just tell us outright what the real rolls are.

pumagirl418
09-08-2010, 07:08 PM
need to go back to the old way. AND ddo needs to go back to CORRECT percentages (striders are not 30%.... etc)



slightly off topic
as for the die roller and percentages... i know for umd, i see what ddo tells me is my chance to succeed, then i cut that in half and i know how often it will work out... sadly this is not the case for heal scrolls.. now there is some messed up die roller