First Run Loot Conspiracy Theory - Part III

[Draccus]

For the uninformed, there is a proven (rumored) conspiracy theory being perpetuated by thousands of players (me), and supported by hundreds (a few) objective (subjective) examples. This fact (hypothesis) proves (contends) that the chance of getting named loot from a quest is exponentially (a bit) higher the first time a player runs a quest verses every other time. I have more examples (I got lucky again):

Items I've pulled on very first or second run of a quest/loot area.

Muckbane
Scourge Choker
Spectral Gloves
Adoryn's Malice
Dusk Heart
Chaosguarde
Planar Gird
Icy Raiment
Gwylen's Blade
Ring of Feathers
Robe of Winter
Bracers of the Hunter

[Oxvon]

Cool, I get most of those on my 20+ runs

[juniorpfactors]

For the uninformed, there is a proven (rumored) conspiracy theory being perpetuated by thousands of players (me), and supported by hundreds (a few) objective (subjective) examples. This fact (hypothesis) proves (contends) that the chance of getting named loot from a quest is exponentially (a bit) higher the first time a player runs a quest verses every other time. I have more examples (I got lucky again):

Items I've pulled on very first or second run of a quest/loot area.

Muckbane
Scourge Choker
Spectral Gloves
Adoryn's Malice
Dusk Heart
Chaosguarde
Planar Gird
Icy Raiment
Gwylen's Blade
Ring of Feathers
Robe of Winter
Bracers of the Hunter

and of the items mentioned above, which are actually useful at end game by most toons?

i r and planar gird....

jrp

[LawstCawz]

Don't forget to max diplo and cast eagle's splendor to get teh uber lootz.

[Beherit_Baphomar]

I could see this being true.

Its like your heroin dealer (Xorian Cypher)...he'll sell you some good smack (planar gird) cheap the first few times, get ya hooked and have you come back (running the quest) for more.

[DelScorcho]

I'll extend the theory: Unless you pull well during your first few times of a loot run, your character is flagged for crappy loot. Delete and reroll now! :D

[ArkoHighStar]

its all luck, as there are planty of items including those on your list that have taken many more than 20 runs to get. I have been doing bloodstone runs for about a year, and have never pulled one, yet I took a guildie out a few months ago just to kill some time and he pulled 3 in one week, so who knows how the loot tables work, because it never worksthe way you expect it to.

[Ranmaru2]

and of the items mentioned above, which are actually useful at end game by most toons?

i r and planar gird....

jrp

scourge choker, gird, spectral gloves, adoryn's, chaosguardes, Raiment, Ring of Feathers (No lie)

[LawstCawz]

scourge choker, gird, spectral gloves, adoryn's, chaosguardes, Raiment, Ring of Feathers (No lie)

Not for jrp. He wears wop raps in all those slots.

[juniorpfactors]

scourge choker???? no ty, gird every toon should have 2, spectral gloves fairly useless(really situational)- hound ring is better, adoryn's about 100 better options, chaosguardes gheto many many better bracers out there, Raiment nice, Ring of Feathers---any other ring with ff is better wether its springing or blance (No lie);) and a ring slot is awfully valuable to have ff on it

jrp

[juniorpfactors]

Not for jrp. He wears wop raps in all those slots.

lol, if we could we would:cool:

jrp

[Draccus]

and of the items mentioned above, which are actually useful at end game by most toons?

i r and planar gird....

jrp

Uh...relevance? None? Ok, we're on the same page.

Hey, I'm just reporting the raw data (excluding points that don't fit my theory) so you can all draw your own conclusions (agree with me).

I did have a strange occurance in the desert recently that deserves mention. I pulled a Coronation Shield from the mephits chest. I moved to the lower part and pulled ANOTHER Coronation Shield from the Thirsty One's chest. I recalled out and reset the instance. On my next run, pulled my third Coronation Shield from the mephits chest.

The funniest part of all this came when I read the description: Twelve shields were crafted for the coronation of a long forgotten drow chieftan. Only this one remains.

Really? So what are the other two??? Seriously, three of the same shield in a row and this after not seeing a single one from hundreds of chests.

[Beherit_Baphomar]

its all luck, as there are planty of items including those on your list that have taken many more than 20 runs to get. I have been doing bloodstone runs for about a year, and have never pulled one, yet I took a guildie out a few months ago just to kill some time and he pulled 3 in one week, so who knows how the loot tables work, because it never worksthe way you expect it to.

Doesnt count. DfC's statistics are banned from this discussion.

[Onesikpup]

I find that I pull most uberloots in the first few times i run any quest after a new mod. be it tomes or w/e, then its months before i pull anything nice again.

Not a theory, just a statement of fact

[Ranmaru2]

scourge choker???? no ty, gird every toon should have 2, spectral gloves fairly useless(really situational)- hound ring is better, adoryn's about 100 better options, chaosguardes gheto many many better bracers out there, Raiment nice, Ring of Feathers---any other ring with ff is better wether its springing or blance (No lie);) and a ring slot is awfully valuable to have ff on it

jrp

Ok, what bracer options?

Scourge Choker is actually quite nice if on a toon that can benefit (all str and no ac builds *coughbarbscough*).

Glove slots are often left free when the effects of the items there are consolidated into many different slots (especially with DT armor now). Hound ring is a nice option, but Ring slots are pretty valuable like you say, and can have many different possibilities than just tumbleweed (usually if you have a Disease Immunity of GFL and a Chattering Ring on you don't want to swap rings at any time). Spectral Gloves give you the +2 to competence bonus without having to run the hound over and over to get it or worry about losing important bonuses.

Chaosguardes are one of the items allowing for high ACs on S&B characters, how are they bad? Adoryn's is a nice option for those lazy morons who don't save greater construct banes and then don't have them come shroud time (I've seen people like this...). Ring of Feathers doesn't need to be constantly ring but is a relatively easy item to find that allows quick swap options.

[Dirac]

The point of the OP was the first time bonus, the actual value of the loot is irrelevent. I never take this sort of thing seriously without data, and the bias is obvious. However, this impression has struck me often. The first time seems to be lucky. I would love to see some real data on this.

[Ranmaru2]

The point of the OP was the first time bonus, the actual value of the loot is irrelevent. I never take this sort of thing seriously without data, and the bias is obvious. However, this impression has struck me often. The first time seems to be lucky. I would love to see some real data on this.

Oh I'd definitely agree that there might be some higher chance, considering I've run a BUNCH of people through the Pit on any difficulty and the excess members have pulled more Muck Doom's than I have...

[Impaqt]

For the uninformed, there is a proven (rumored) conspiracy theory being perpetuated by thousands of players (me), and supported by hundreds (a few) objective (subjective) examples. This fact (hypothesis) proves (contends) that the chance of getting named loot from a quest is exponentially (a bit) higher the first time a player runs a quest verses every other time. I have more examples (I got lucky again):

Items I've pulled on very first or second run of a quest/loot area.

Muckbane
Scourge Choker
Spectral Gloves
Adoryn's Malice
Dusk Heart
Chaosguarde
Planar Gird
Icy Raiment
Gwylen's Blade
Ring of Feathers
Robe of Winter
Bracers of the Hunter

Nice list, However, Here is a list of items that I have NOT pulled on my first or second run....

http://forums.ddo.com/showthread.php?t=121279

[Uska]

and of the items mentioned above, which are actually useful at end game by most toons?

i r and planar gird....

jrp


Umm I have several characters that use other items on that list like the ring of feathers and a couple of those they never ever use a planar gird.

[Uska]

scourge choker???? no ty, gird every toon should have 2, spectral gloves fairly useless(really situational)- hound ring is better, adoryn's about 100 better options, chaosguardes gheto many many better bracers out there, Raiment nice, Ring of Feathers---any other ring with ff is better wether its springing or blance (No lie);) and a ring slot is awfully valuable to have ff on it

jrp

Not all of us have your loot luck I guess never even seen a hound ring pulled or had better bracers then chaosguarde and rarely pulled a better weapon for its type then adoryns. as to ff sometimes I find better boots for ff but I have never pulled a better ring.

[Lewcipher]

Only thing about the ring of feathers...it's good lowbie gear. I can't make room for a ff ring slot on any of my capped toons. Thelis, Tumbleweed, Proof against poison, GFL, etc...Chaosguards are great, but once again, only 1 of my guys can use. Bah...I never have luck and get those 1st or second try anyway. I have 23rd and 24th run luck with items.

[Voalkrynn2]

I'll extend the theory: Unless you pull well during your first few times of a loot run, your character is flagged for crappy loot. Delete and reroll now! :D

Dunno about that 1 year later my 28 pointer pulled 4 tomes in 1 week to include a +2 tome from the shroud. So that means in year 5 i will get firestorm greaves............:rolleyes:

[Junts]

scourge choker???? no ty, gird every toon should have 2, spectral gloves fairly useless(really situational)- hound ring is better, adoryn's about 100 better options, chaosguardes gheto many many better bracers out there, Raiment nice, Ring of Feathers---any other ring with ff is better wether its springing or blance (No lie);) and a ring slot is awfully valuable to have ff on it

jrp


Ring slot is also awfully valuable to waste on a dex item, when almost nothing else useful comes on hands; I use spectral gloves instead of tumbleweed and am avidly seeking a +3 dex tome for the level cap raise so I can continue doing so, because ring has about 50 times more good options than hands.

[sephiroth1084]

I pulled a Battle Coin and Madstone Boots on my archer's first runs through the Titan and Reaver, respectively. Rolled on and won the Delving Suit on first Dragon completion on him as well. Got a set of Centurion Plate on my first run through the Titan on my 28 pt. dude (didn't even know what was going on and then someone passed me this cool looking armor...ahhh...n00biness). Pulled the Ironweave Robe from the Dragon on my first attempt at an archer on his first run.

Beyond those, I cannot recall other instances, though I may have pulled more gear on other characters that I didn't keep, and therefore don't recall.

Then again, I have somewhere between 30 and 40 Twilight Forge completions without pulling the mace, around 20 XC without getting a Gird, must be nearing 100 desert loot runs without pulling a Bloodstone or Spellstoring Ring (though I've gotten several of the shields, khopeshes, full-plates and dusk hearts), and have done around 30 loot runs for the Ring of the Ancestors without pulling one. So, there isn't much by way of consistency (although I've pulled all of the good first time stuff on 2 characters, while 2 others have been going dry...and both of the good pullers were ranger/rogue/fighter combos using bows....coincidence? I think not!)

[kamimitsu]

On my first ever excursion into the desert on any character, I pulled a bloodstone. On my first excursion to the desert on my second character, I pulled another one. I haven't pulled one since, though.

[Thadion]

I think i remember reading something in the hints that the more often you grab a chest the less likely you are to get something good. or even anything at all..

so i don't think it's a conspiracy, it's actually programed into the game that way.