Do I put another coin in the slot machine?

[Draccus]

Ah...armor crafting. The slot machine of DDO.

So here's the deal. I got extremely lucky on my DT Leather. I got GFL on my first Eldrich rune and +4 AC Insight bonus on my second Soveriegn rune. Tempest was another story. It took 9 runes before I got something useful: Str +6. I've been running with that armor for a month or so. Strength isn't a key attribute for my finesse rogue but the extra damage always helps so I'm fine with it.

As I'm pulling raid loot, however, I see a small problem. I have a Tumbleweed ring (+6 dex, +2 AB, +10 Tumble) to replace my Dexterous Gloves (+6) but there's nothing to put in my glove slot. It seems the only attributes on gloves are dex and str, the two attributes I have tied to items I won't swap out.

Hmm...the Tempest Shrine is whispering to me..."Come to me Dresek...give me a Tempest rune and I'll make your wildest dreams come true..."

Do I give the lever another pull?

There are 22 Tempest upgrades available but only 4 will help (Int, Con, Cha, Protection) so I have an 18.1% chance of getting something good from a Tempest Rune (assuming it's random). I have 5 runes in my bank (I've given away at least 5, too...grrr). That gives me a 90% chance to get something I want other than +6 str.

Tempting...so tempting...

[Noctus]

Good chance, do it!

[Harncw]

keep collecting runes until you get duplicates

get a trash dragoncrafting armor

apply duplicate to the test cloth

if you like the effect apply to your real item

Duplicate runes do stack.

[Korvek]

As I'm pulling raid loot, however, I see a small problem. I have a Tumbleweed ring (+6 dex, +2 AB, +10 Tumble) to replace my Dexterous Gloves (+6) but there's nothing to put in my glove slot. It seems the only attributes on gloves are dex and str, the two attributes I have tied to items I won't swap out.

Well, you could stick some Spectral Gloves in there. The dex bonus is useless on it, but it gives all your melee weapons Ghost Touch and gives you a +2 bonus to-hit.

Just something to think about if you don't feel like pulling that lever.

[Impaqt]

Handy Gloves:
7-FIngered
Ghost Touch ones from OoB
Backstabbers (if you dont have the googles)
Convenient Swap spot for DD/OL

There are also several Guards available from the Tempest machine..... Guards can be VERY handy.

You could also make a second set of armor.. I have 2 sets on almost all my characters....

[darthmaul121783]

you can also make the tear 3 imunity item in the shroud on gloves

[Deathseeker]

Do both!

Go buy a set of backstabber gloves...they should be relatively cheap and available (unlike the spectral or UMD gloves) and they give you a +2 to hit on sneak attack and +3 to damage. Nothing uber, but handy.

Then, start your second set of DT armor. Apply all your new runes to that one until you get it just perfect.

Best of both worlds! What else would you do with any further runes you'd get anyways? If nothing else, you can try for resistance +5 and +3 dodge Ac bonus while your at it, so you've got nothing to lose.

All of this is without knowing your other gear, so stacking issues could be a problem with those gloves, or teh dodge bonus isnt useful if you have the chattering ring, etc. But you get the point...

Good luck!

[Draccus]

I pulled the lever...busted!

I raided my bank and scrounged up five Tempest Runes. I then ran Prey twice with some guildies; some who didn't need the rune, and netted another 6 runes there. Combined with the 9 I've already used, that's 20 Tempest runes. With only 22 random options and 4 of them being something I like, I have GREAT odds. In fact, the odds of NOT getting what I want are zero. Of course, we all know about the odds...

Here's what I've gotten from 20 Tempest runes:

Healing Amplification 20% - 5
True Seeing - 3
Wizardry VI - 3
Spell Penetration VIII - 2
Strength+6 - 2
Exceptional Charisma - 1
Exceptional Wisdom - 1
Exceptional Dexterity - 1
Magma Surge Guard - 1
Crushing Wave Guard - 1

Fortunately, the armor is still very good even without a good tempest rune (GFL and +4 AC insight) so I'm not stuck with lousy armor while I farm Tempest runes.

[Deathseeker]

If you were looking for 4 items out of 22, and you had 20 attempts at it, you only had a 1.8% chance of not getting it. You were indeed extremely unlucky...

Two pieces of advice would help you in the future...

1. Stack all the runes in a bank page or ingredients bag first. Note which stack together as those will all have the same result.

and/or

2. Make your attempt on a seperate piece of armor to get it "perfect" while wearing the armor that is "decent".

By doing item 1 even if its on your main armor, you can at least control what you end up on even if it isnt one of the 4 you want. So for example, you may be looking for Dex 6, but if you dont get it, at least ending up on True Seeing is a lot better than Exception Charisma +1 if you have no use for Charisma. So stack them all together, burn through those you only have 1 of. If you dont get what you want, try those you have stacked. Note which stack was which option. If, when you've tried them all, you didnt get what you wanted, then at least you can pick from the best of those you had stacked. So in the case you described above, you could end on either True Seeing, Healing Amp, or Strength 6 and avoid the others that are totally useless to you.

Keep going...based on the numbers you are sharing, you are a big anomaly if you are trying for 4 items out of 22. Now, if you were trying for 1 item out of 22, and you tried 20 times, youd have a 39% chance of not getting what you want, which ends up being quite common.

I hear about Resistance +5 all the time. People say theyve turned in 20 or 30 runes and didnt get it, so it must not be random. Totally invalid assumption. There are 23 eldritch options that Im aware of. So the odds of getting Resistance +5 in 20 tries are 59%. Good, but not exactly a sure thing. In 30 tries its 74%. So 1 out of 4 people will not get it with 30 attempts.

This system is made to favor those with a lot of need, and not those with a very specific need. Those with a specific need have to grind, grind, grind.

You, on the other hand, just got really unlucky it sounds like, because wanting 4 out of 22 you should have seen that easily in 20 tries...

[Draccus]

If you were looking for 4 items out of 22, and you had 20 attempts at it, you only had a 1.8% chance of not getting it. You were indeed extremely unlucky...



I guess this bad luck is Kharma for my Eldrich and Sovereign runes. I got exactly what I wanted with one Eld and Two Sov and my choices there were even more limited than my Tempest.

I have done the 2nd set of armor trick but I'm not doing it any more. I'm applying runes as soon as I get them because as soon as I get what I want, I want to start passing Tempest runes on to other guild members who need them. Since I can't give them away, I need to know as soon as possible if I have what I want.

I'll keep at it. We're doing casual Prey runs in about 18 minutes and they're still a lot of fun.

[Draccus]

Running total as the bad luck continues. 23 runes applied, none of the 4 upgrades I want have appeared.

Healing Amplification 20% - 5
True Seeing - 3
Wizardry VI - 3
Spell Penetration VIII - 2
Strength+6 - 2
Dexterity+6 - 2
Exceptional Charisma - 1
Exceptional Wisdom - 1
Exceptional Dexterity - 1
Exceptional Constitution - 1
Magma Surge Guard - 1
Crushing Wave Guard - 2

Odds of not getting what I want after 23 runes are 0.9%.

[Boldrin]

Running total as the bad luck continues. 23 runes applied, none of the 4 upgrades I want have appeared.

Healing Amplification 20% - 5
True Seeing - 3
Wizardry VI - 3
Spell Penetration VIII - 2
Strength+6 - 2
Dexterity+6 - 2
Exceptional Charisma - 1
Exceptional Wisdom - 1
Exceptional Dexterity - 1
Exceptional Constitution - 1
Magma Surge Guard - 1
Crushing Wave Guard - 2

Odds of not getting what I want after 23 runes are 0.9%.

This is a false statement of the odds, each time you get a new tempest rune does not increase your odds, you always have a less than 5% chance of getting what you want.

[Sequell]

This is a false statement of the odds, each time you get a new tempest rune does not increase your odds, you always have a less than 5% chance of getting what you want.

About time someone realized the odds are always the same...1 in 22 or 23 whichever every time you use a rune. Simple math people, very common gambling mistake though lol! :D

If there are 23 options it is a 4.3% chance every time, no more no less.
If there are 22 optons it is a 4.5% chance every time.

[Draccus]

This is a false statement of the odds, each time you get a new tempest rune does not increase your odds, you always have a less than 5% chance of getting what you want.

Thanks for the statistics lessons but you're not reading my comment correctly. My statement of the odds is correct.

My statement is:

The odds of not getting one of 4 good upgrades out of 22 possibilites in 23 attempts is 0.9%.

That statement is true. This is a common statistical approach used by anyone who uses statistics to make decisions. A typical question answered by this simple calculation would something along the lines of "If I want one specific upgrade, about how many runes should I collect to have a 90% chance to get it."

It is not intended to be a estimate of getting that upgrade on a single rune application.

I'll toss out a simpler example.

The odds of getting heads on an honest coin after flipping 19 consecutive heads is 50%. However, the odds of flipping 20 consecutive heads is 0.000095%.

Specifically for this example:

The odds of getting what I want when adding a rune is 18%. However, the odds of not getting what I want after 23 runes is 0.9%.

[Deathseeker]

This is a false statement of the odds, each time you get a new tempest rune does not increase your odds, you always have a less than 5% chance of getting what you want.


About time someone realized the odds are always the same...1 in 22 or 23 whichever every time you use a rune. Simple math people, very common gambling mistake though lol! :D

If there are 23 options it is a 4.3% chance every time, no more no less.
If there are 22 optons it is a 4.5% chance every time.

Epic fail on both your parts. He and I were both not referring to the odds of him getting it on his next pull. We were referring to the odds of burning X runes from start to finish and not getting what you want.

To use your gambling analogy...the odds of getting heads on any coin flip is 50%. The odds of getting heads on your 10th coin flip after 9 consecutive heads...still 50%. We all got that.

But what are the odds of getting 10 coin flips in a row that are heads? That is what he and I are referring to. Its 1/2^10th, or .1%

[Deathseeker]

Thanks for the statistics lessons but you're not reading my comment correctly. My statement of the odds is correct.

My statement is:

The odds of not getting one of 4 good upgrades out of 22 possibilites in 23 attempts is 0.9%.

That statement is true. This is a common statistical approach used by anyone who uses statistics to make decisions. A typical question answered by this simple calculation would something along the lines of "If I want one specific upgrade, about how many runes should I collect to have a 90% chance to get it."

It is not intended to be a estimate of getting that upgrade on a single rune application.

I'll toss out a simpler example.

The odds of getting heads on an honest coin after flipping 19 consecutive heads is 50%. However, the odds of flipping 20 consecutive heads is 0.000095%.

Specifically for this example:

The odds of getting what I want when adding a rune is 18%. However, the odds of not getting what I want after 23 runes is 0.9%.


LOL...great minds think alike...and so do ours!

[Sequell]

Epic fail on both your parts. He and I were both not referring to the odds of him getting it on his next pull. We were referring to the odds of burning X runes from start to finish and not getting what you want.

To use your gambling analogy...the odds of getting heads on any coin flip is 50%. The odds of getting heads on your 10th coin flip after 9 consecutive heads...still 50%. We all got that.

But what are the odds of getting 10 coin flips in a row that are heads? That is what he and I are referring to. Its 1/2^10th, or .1%

I now see that we were talking about two different equations. You are correct, and it really sux that it takes that many tries to get what you want. :)

[Draccus]

Up to 27 runes without one of the 4 upgrades I want. Running total for anyone collecting data:

What I want:
Intelligence +6
Charisma +6
Constitution +6
Protection +5

What I've gotten:
Healing Amplification 20% - 6
True Seeing - 4
Wizardry VI - 3
Spell Penetration VIII - 2
Strength+6 - 2
Dexterity+6 - 1
Exceptional Charisma - 1
Exceptional Wisdom - 1
Exceptional Dexterity - 1
Exceptional Constitution - 2
Exceptional Intelligence - 1
Magma Surge Guard - 1
Crushing Wave Guard - 2

[juniorpfactors]

Up to 27 runes without one of the 4 upgrades I want. Running total for anyone collecting data:

What I want:
Intelligence +6
Charisma +6
Constitution +6
Protection +5

What I've gotten:
Healing Amplification 20% - 6
True Seeing - 4
Wizardry VI - 3
Spell Penetration VIII - 2
Strength+6 - 2
Dexterity+6 - 1
Exceptional Charisma - 1
Exceptional Wisdom - 1
Exceptional Dexterity - 1
Exceptional Constitution - 2
Exceptional Intelligence - 1
Magma Surge Guard - 1
Crushing Wave Guard - 2

bro, it took me over 80+ turnins to get +5 resistance on my barbarian ... you got a long way to go to feel my pain

jrp

[Draccus]

bro, it took me over 80+ turnins to get +5 resistance on my barbarian ... you got a long way to go to feel my pain

jrp

Actually, statistically, we're about even.

I think there are 23 possible Eldrich upgrades and you are trying to get a single one, giving you a 4% chance of success. I'm looking for any 4 upgrades out of 22 possible, giving me an 18% chance of success.

So while you've applied about 4 times as many runes as I have, I have about 4 times the chance for success.

Bottom line: we both suck :)

[Blind_Skwerl]

I think you guys might be missing one part of the equation. You are assuming the odds of getting the undesirable result are the same as getting the desireable ones. This may not be the case. They might have made the INT +6, CHA +6, CON +6 and PROT +5 harder to get than the others. Look at the gold festivult coins, for example. How many have you guys turned in? Gotten mostly cakes, right? But we know there are slight chances to get named items, tomes, etc.. The odds of result A are not equall to result B. Want that rare stat on your item? You may have to spin a ton for it. 22 years in the casino business makes you look at lots of angles. :D

[Deathseeker]

bro, it took me over 80+ turnins to get +5 resistance on my barbarian ... you got a long way to go to feel my pain

jrp

Just for some more math fun....

Odds of what happened to you (trying to get 1 in 22 after 80 tries and failing): 2.3%
Odds of what happened to him (trying to get 4 in 22 after 23 tries and failing): 0.9%

Unless I did my math wrong, it looks like you'd have had to go 97 tries before you'd be at the statistical pain he's experiencing!

Well, I guess it depends on how you define pain. If being more unlucky is more painful, he's the worst off. But then again, having to run these quests over and over to get 80 runes isnt exactly exciting...so even though he's a bigger anomoly, you may win in the "pain" department.

And yes, I have WAY too much time on my hands this morning!

If it makes you feel better...my guildy Selastra got Resistance +5 on his first attempt. And to make matters worse...you may have been on that run with us JRP! :D

[Deathseeker]

I think you guys might be missing one part of the equation. You are assuming the odds of getting the undesirable result are the same as getting the desireable ones. This may not be the case. They might have made the INT +6, CHA +6, CON +6 and PROT +5 harder to get than the others. Look at the gold festivult coins, for example. How many have you guys turned in? Gotten mostly cakes, right? But we know there are slight chances to get named items, tomes, etc.. The odds of result A are not equall to result B. Want that rare stat on your item? You may have to spin a ton for it. 22 years in the casino business makes you look at lots of angles. :D

That, my friend, is a very good point!

But it does take some of the fun out of the analysis as that would be an unknown we wouldn't be able to decypher. So I'm going to pretend this possibility doesnt exists...

(buries head in sand and keeps going)....

[Draccus]

That, my friend, is a very good point!

But it does take some of the fun out of the analysis as that would be an unknown we wouldn't be able to decypher. So I'm going to pretend this possibility doesnt exists...

(buries head in sand and keeps going)....

I doubt it's completely random and that's partially why I'm posting and updating the information. If others did this we could consolidate the data eventually determine if certain runes are more common than others. That could be useful for someone planning his armor.

A player may decide to put Resistance +5 on a Shroud item, for example, instead of hoping to get it on his DT armor if he knew the odds were 1.4% or whatever. A player may also decide NOT to farm the Hound for a Tumbleweed if he knew the odds of getting +6 dex on his armor were 28%...etc. etc.

[Blind_Skwerl]

I doubt it's completely random and that's partially why I'm posting and updating the information. If others did this we could consolidate the data eventually determine if certain runes are more common than others. That could be useful for someone planning his armor.

A player may decide to put Resistance +5 on a Shroud item, for example, instead of hoping to get it on his DT armor if he knew the odds were 1.4% or whatever. A player may also decide NOT to farm the Hound for a Tumbleweed if he knew the odds of getting +6 dex on his armor were 28%...etc. etc.

Exactly. Going for the 1 in 10 vs. the 1 in 100 can make a difference for most everybody.

[Draccus]

Done! After 30 Tempest runes, I got Protection +5, one of four upgrades I was looking for. Here's the final tally for those keeping track of the odds:

Healing Amplification 20% - 6
True Seeing - 4
Wizardry VI - 3
Spell Penetration VIII - 2
Strength+6 - 2
Dexterity+6 - 1
Exceptional Charisma - 1
Exceptional Wisdom - 2
Exceptional Dexterity - 1
Exceptional Constitution - 2
Exceptional Intelligence - 1
Magma Surge Guard - 1
Crushing Wave Guard - 2
Corrosive Salt Guard - 1
Protection+5 - 1

Finished armor took 1 Eldrich rune, 30 Tempest runes, and 2 Sovereign runes for:

Dragontouched leather armor - Greater False Life, Protection +5, AC Insight +4

[sparty55]

Isn't the bottom line here that this whole process is completely asinine? There should be some cutoff where you could automatically get what you want. I know I have pretty much given up on my sorc, farming the new areas for the runes is rediculously boring after running them every weekend. At least all you need is a tempest, I got screwed with the sovereign which takes 120 or I have to complete SOS over and over, including all the pre-quests...

[Deathseeker]

Isn't the bottom line here that this whole process is completely asinine? There should be some cutoff where you could automatically get what you want. I know I have pretty much given up on my sorc, farming the new areas for the runes is rediculously boring after running them every weekend. At least all you need is a tempest, I got screwed with the sovereign which takes 120 or I have to complete SOS over and over, including all the pre-quests...

Well, it depends on your perspective.

If your perspective is that you should be able to always end up with exactly the options you want, and in a certain predictable time frame, then yes, its a problem.

Personally, I don't mind the current structure, but I think they should add a 20th run to each of the quests and let you pick the rune you want. Then it would be similar to other raids and there would be an end in site.

The biggest problem that this has is that groups cant reassign "raid loot" in the chest like other raids, and there is no 20th run like other raids. By at least giving a menu on the 20th run that told you what each rune would do, you could solve this perception issue.

[sparty55]

Well, it depends on your perspective.

If your perspective is that you should be able to always end up with exactly the options you want, and in a certain predictable time frame, then yes, its a problem.

Personally, I don't mind the current structure, but I think they should add a 20th run to each of the quests and let you pick the rune you want. Then it would be similar to other raids and there would be an end in site.

The biggest problem that this has is that groups cant reassign "raid loot" in the chest like other raids, and there is no 20th run like other raids. By at least giving a menu on the 20th run that told you what each rune would do, you could solve this perception issue.

That was my point. Put in some mechanism wherein if you run SOS a certain number of times you get what you want. Or you turn in 20 sovereign runes you get your "menu" as you put it.

I don't care how they do it, but as it is now I could turn in sovereign runes for months and not get a decent enhancement.